Local Adaptive Grouped Regularization and its Oracle Properties for Varying Coefficient Regression

Varying coefficient regression is a flexible technique for modeling data where the coefficients are functions of some effect-modifying parameter, often time or location in a certain domain. While there are a number of methods for variable selection in a varying coefficient regression model, the existing methods are mostly for global selection, which includes or excludes each covariate over the entire domain. Presented here is a new local adaptive grouped regularization (LAGR) method for local variable selection in spatially varying coefficient linear and generalized linear regression. LAGR selects the covariates that are associated with the response at any point in space, and simultaneously estimates the coefficients of those covariates by tailoring the adaptive group Lasso toward a local regression model with locally linear coefficient estimates. Oracle properties of the proposed method are established under local linear regression and local generalized linear regression. The finite sample properties of LAGR are assessed in a simulation study and for illustration, the Boston housing price data set is analyzed.Comment: 30 pages, one technical appendix, two figure

Functional Regression

Functional data analysis (FDA) involves the analysis of data whose ideal units of observation are functions defined on some continuous domain, and the observed data consist of a sample of functions taken from some population, sampled on a discrete grid. Ramsay and Silverman's 1997 textbook sparked the development of this field, which has accelerated in the past 10 years to become one of the fastest growing areas of statistics, fueled by the growing number of applications yielding this type of data. One unique characteristic of FDA is the need to combine information both across and within functions, which Ramsay and Silverman called replication and regularization, respectively. This article will focus on functional regression, the area of FDA that has received the most attention in applications and methodological development. First will be an introduction to basis functions, key building blocks for regularization in functional regression methods, followed by an overview of functional regression methods, split into three types: [1] functional predictor regression (scalar-on-function), [2] functional response regression (function-on-scalar) and [3] function-on-function regression. For each, the role of replication and regularization will be discussed and the methodological development described in a roughly chronological manner, at times deviating from the historical timeline to group together similar methods. The primary focus is on modeling and methodology, highlighting the modeling structures that have been developed and the various regularization approaches employed. At the end is a brief discussion describing potential areas of future development in this field

Parametrization and penalties in spline models with an application to survival analysis

In this paper we show how a simple parametrization, built from the definition of cubic splines, can aid in the implementation and interpretation of penalized spline models, whatever configuration of knots we choose to use. We call this parametrization value-first derivative parametrization. We perform Bayesian inference by exploring the natural link between quadratic penalties and Gaussian priors. However, a full Bayesian analysis seems feasible only for some penalty functionals. Alternatives include empirical Bayes methods involving model selection type criteria. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an application to survival analysis where the usual Cox model is extended to allow for time-varying regression coefficients

Generalized structured additive regression based on Bayesian P-splines

Generalized additive models (GAM) for modelling nonlinear effects of continuous covariates are now well established tools for the applied statistician. In this paper we develop Bayesian GAM's and extensions to generalized structured additive regression based on one or two dimensional P-splines as the main building block. The approach extends previous work by Lang und Brezger (2003) for Gaussian responses. Inference relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques, and is either based on iteratively weighted least squares (IWLS) proposals or on latent utility representations of (multi)categorical regression models. Our approach covers the most common univariate response distributions, e.g. the Binomial, Poisson or Gamma distribution, as well as multicategorical responses. For the first time, we present Bayesian semiparametric inference for the widely used multinomial logit models. As we will demonstrate through two applications on the forest health status of trees and a space-time analysis of health insurance data, the approach allows realistic modelling of complex problems. We consider the enormous flexibility and extendability of our approach as a main advantage of Bayesian inference based on MCMC techniques compared to more traditional approaches. Software for the methodology presented in the paper is provided within the public domain package BayesX