On the extraction of spectral densities from lattice correlators

Hadronic spectral densities are important quantities whose non-perturbative knowledge allows for calculating phenomenologically relevant observables, such as inclusive hadronic cross-sections and non-leptonic decay-rates. The extraction of spectral densities from lattice correlators is a notoriously difficult problem because lattice simulations are performed in Euclidean time and lattice data are unavoidably affected by statistical and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we present a new method for extracting hadronic spectral densities from lattice correlators. The method allows for choosing a smearing function at the beginning of the procedure and it provides results for the spectral densities smeared with this function together with reliable estimates of the associated uncertainties. The same smearing function can be used in the analysis of correlators obtained on different volumes, such that the infinite volume limit can be studied in a consistent way. While the method is described by using the language of lattice simulations, in reality it is completely general and can profitably be used to cope with inverse problems arising in different fields of research.Comment: 15 pages, 14 figures. Updated to match published versio

Ordering Algorithms and Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

We discuss some issues arising in the evaluation of confidence intervals in the presence of nuisance parameters (systematic uncertainties) by means of direct Neyman construction in multi-dimensional space. While this kind of procedure provides rigorous coverage, it may be affected by large overcoverage, and/or produce results with counterintuitive behavior with respect to the uncertainty on the nuisance parameters, or other undesirable properties. We describe a choice of ordering algorithm that provides results with good general properties, the correct behavior for small uncertainties, and limited overcoverage.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in proceedings of PhyStat2005, Oxford, UK, Sept 2005, Imperial College Pres

Global sensitivity analysis for the boundary control of an open channel

The goal of this paper is to solve the global sensitivity analysis for a particular control problem. More precisely, the boundary control problem of an open-water channel is considered, where the boundary conditions are defined by the position of a down stream overflow gate and an upper stream underflow gate. The dynamics of the water depth and of the water velocity are described by the Shallow Water equations, taking into account the bottom and friction slopes. Since some physical parameters are unknown, a stabilizing boundary control is first computed for their nominal values, and then a sensitivity anal-ysis is performed to measure the impact of the uncertainty in the parameters on a given to-be-controlled output. The unknown physical parameters are de-scribed by some probability distribution functions. Numerical simulations are performed to measure the first-order and total sensitivity indices

Anatomy of the Higgs fits: a first guide to statistical treatments of the theoretical uncertainties

The studies of the Higgs boson couplings based on the recent and upcoming LHC data open up a new window on physics beyond the Standard Model. In this paper, we propose a statistical guide to the consistent treatment of the theoretical uncertainties entering the Higgs rate fits. Both the Bayesian and frequentist approaches are systematically analysed in a unified formalism. We present analytical expressions for the marginal likelihoods, useful to implement simultaneously the experimental and theoretical uncertainties. We review the various origins of the theoretical errors (QCD, EFT, PDF, production mode contamination...). All these individual uncertainties are thoroughly combined with the help of moment-based considerations. The theoretical correlations among Higgs detection channels appear to affect the location and size of the best-fit regions in the space of Higgs couplings. We discuss the recurrent question of the shape of the prior distributions for the individual theoretical errors and find that a nearly Gaussian prior arises from the error combinations. We also develop the bias approach, which is an alternative to marginalisation providing more conservative results. The statistical framework to apply the bias principle is introduced and two realisations of the bias are proposed. Finally, depending on the statistical treatment, the Standard Model prediction for the Higgs signal strengths is found to lie within either the $68\%$ or $95\%$ confidence level region obtained from the latest analyses of the $7$ and $8$ TeV LHC datasets.Comment: 62 pages, 10 figure

Set-based design of mechanical systems with design robustness integrated

This paper presents a method for parameter design of mechanical products based on a set-based approach. Set-based concurrent engineering emphasises on designing in a multi-stakeholder environment with concurrent involvement of the stakeholders in the design process. It also encourages flexibility in design through communication in terms of ranges instead of fixed point values and subsequent alternative solutions resulting from intersection of these ranges. These alternative solutions can then be refined and selected according to the designers’ preferences and clients’ needs. This paper presents a model and tools for integrated flexible design that take into account the manufacturing variations as well as the design objectives for finding inherently robust solutions using QCSP transformation through interval analysis. In order to demonstrate the approach, an example of design of rigid flange coupling with a variable number of bolts and a choice of bolts from ISO M standard has been resolved and demonstrated