Discovering Nonlinear Relations with Minimum Predictive Information Regularization

Identifying the underlying directional relations from observational time series with nonlinear interactions and complex relational structures is key to a wide range of applications, yet remains a hard problem. In this work, we introduce a novel minimum predictive information regularization method to infer directional relations from time series, allowing deep learning models to discover nonlinear relations. Our method substantially outperforms other methods for learning nonlinear relations in synthetic datasets, and discovers the directional relations in a video game environment and a heart-rate vs. breath-rate dataset.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures; ICML'19 Time Series Worksho

Amortized Causal Discovery: Learning to Infer Causal Graphs from Time-Series Data

Standard causal discovery methods must fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information - for instance, the dynamics describing the effects of causal relations - which is lost when following this approach. We propose Amortized Causal Discovery, a novel framework that leverages such shared dynamics to learn to infer causal relations from time-series data. This enables us to train a single, amortized model that infers causal relations across samples with different underlying causal graphs, and thus makes use of the information that is shared. We demonstrate experimentally that this approach, implemented as a variational model, leads to significant improvements in causal discovery performance, and show how it can be extended to perform well under hidden confounding

Interpretable Models for Granger Causality Using Self-explaining Neural Networks

Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for inferring multivariate Granger causality under nonlinear dynamics based on an extension of self-explaining neural networks. This framework is more interpretable than other neural-network-based techniques for inferring Granger causality, since in addition to relational inference, it also allows detecting signs of Granger-causal effects and inspecting their variability over time. In comprehensive experiments on simulated data, we show that our framework performs on par with several powerful baseline methods at inferring Granger causality and that it achieves better performance at inferring interaction signs. The results suggest that our framework is a viable and more interpretable alternative to sparse-input neural networks for inferring Granger causality.Comment: ICLR 202