287,798 research outputs found

    Importance Sampling: Intrinsic Dimension and Computational Cost

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    The basic idea of importance sampling is to use independent samples from a proposal measure in order to approximate expectations with respect to a target measure. It is key to understand how many samples are required in order to guarantee accurate approximations. Intuitively, some notion of distance between the target and the proposal should determine the computational cost of the method. A major challenge is to quantify this distance in terms of parameters or statistics that are pertinent for the practitioner. The subject has attracted substantial interest from within a variety of communities. The objective of this paper is to overview and unify the resulting literature by creating an overarching framework. A general theory is presented, with a focus on the use of importance sampling in Bayesian inverse problems and filtering.Comment: Statistical Scienc

    Nonlinear Compressive Particle Filtering

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    Many systems for which compressive sensing is used today are dynamical. The common approach is to neglect the dynamics and see the problem as a sequence of independent problems. This approach has two disadvantages. Firstly, the temporal dependency in the state could be used to improve the accuracy of the state estimates. Secondly, having an estimate for the state and its support could be used to reduce the computational load of the subsequent step. In the linear Gaussian setting, compressive sensing was recently combined with the Kalman filter to mitigate above disadvantages. In the nonlinear dynamical case, compressive sensing can not be used and, if the state dimension is high, the particle filter would perform poorly. In this paper we combine one of the most novel developments in compressive sensing, nonlinear compressive sensing, with the particle filter. We show that the marriage of the two is essential and that neither the particle filter or nonlinear compressive sensing alone gives a satisfying solution.Comment: Accepted to CDC 201

    Methodological and empirical challenges in modelling residential location choices

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    The modelling of residential locations is a key element in land use and transport planning. There are significant empirical and methodological challenges inherent in such modelling, however, despite recent advances both in the availability of spatial datasets and in computational and choice modelling techniques. One of the most important of these challenges concerns spatial aggregation. The housing market is characterised by the fact that it offers spatially and functionally heterogeneous products; as a result, if residential alternatives are represented as aggregated spatial units (as in conventional residential location models), the variability of dwelling attributes is lost, which may limit the predictive ability and policy sensitivity of the model. This thesis presents a modelling framework for residential location choice that addresses three key challenges: (i) the development of models at the dwelling-unit level, (ii) the treatment of spatial structure effects in such dwelling-unit level models, and (iii) problems associated with estimation in such modelling frameworks in the absence of disaggregated dwelling unit supply data. The proposed framework is applied to the residential location choice context in London. Another important challenge in the modelling of residential locations is the choice set formation problem. Most models of residential location choices have been developed based on the assumption that households consider all available alternatives when they are making location choices. Due the high search costs associated with the housing market, however, and the limited capacity of households to process information, the validity of this assumption has been an on-going debate among researchers. There have been some attempts in the literature to incorporate the cognitive capacities of households within discrete choice models of residential location: for instance, by modelling households’ choice sets exogenously based on simplifying assumptions regarding their spatial search behaviour (e.g., an anchor-based search strategy) and their characteristics. By undertaking an empirical comparison of alternative models within the context of residential location choice in the Greater London area this thesis investigates the feasibility and practicality of applying deterministic choice set formation approaches to capture the underlying search process of households. The thesis also investigates the uncertainty of choice sets in residential location choice modelling and proposes a simplified probabilistic choice set formation approach to model choice sets and choices simultaneously. The dwelling-level modelling framework proposed in this research is practice-ready and can be used to estimate residential location choice models at the level of dwelling units without requiring independent and disaggregated dwelling supply data. The empirical comparison of alternative exogenous choice set formation approaches provides a guideline for modellers and land use planners to avoid inappropriate choice set formation approaches in practice. Finally, the proposed simplified choice set formation model can be applied to model the behaviour of households in online real estate environments.Open Acces

    Hot new directions for quasi-Monte Carlo research in step with applications

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    This article provides an overview of some interfaces between the theory of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods and applications. We summarize three QMC theoretical settings: first order QMC methods in the unit cube [0,1]s[0,1]^s and in Rs\mathbb{R}^s, and higher order QMC methods in the unit cube. One important feature is that their error bounds can be independent of the dimension ss under appropriate conditions on the function spaces. Another important feature is that good parameters for these QMC methods can be obtained by fast efficient algorithms even when ss is large. We outline three different applications and explain how they can tap into the different QMC theory. We also discuss three cost saving strategies that can be combined with QMC in these applications. Many of these recent QMC theory and methods are developed not in isolation, but in close connection with applications
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