MUFFLE: Multi-Modal Fake News Influence Estimator on Twitter

To alleviate the impact of fake news on our society, predicting the popularity of fake news posts on social media is a crucial problem worthy of study. However, most related studies on fake news emphasize detection only. In this paper, we focus on the issue of fake news influence prediction, i.e., inferring how popular a fake news post might become on social platforms. To achieve our goal, we propose a comprehensive framework, MUFFLE, which captures multi-modal dynamics by encoding the representation of news-related social networks, user characteristics, and content in text. The attention mechanism developed in the model can provide explainability for social or psychological analysis. To examine the effectiveness of MUFFLE, we conducted extensive experiments on real-world datasets. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms both state-of-the-art methods of popularity prediction and machine-based baselines in top-k NDCG and hit rate. Through the experiments, we also analyze the feature importance for predicting fake news influence via the explainability provided by MUFFLE

Non-Hierarchical Networks for Censorship-Resistant Personal Communication.

The Internet promises widespread access to the world’s collective information and fast communication among people, but common government censorship and spying undermines this potential. This censorship is facilitated by the Internet’s hierarchical structure. Most traffic flows through routers owned by a small number of ISPs, who can be secretly coerced into aiding such efforts. Traditional crypographic defenses are confusing to common users. This thesis advocates direct removal of the underlying heirarchical infrastructure instead, replacing it with non-hierarchical networks. These networks lack such chokepoints, instead requiring would-be censors to control a substantial fraction of the participating devices—an expensive proposition. We take four steps towards the development of practical non-hierarchical networks. (1) We first describe Whisper, a non-hierarchical mobile ad hoc network (MANET) architecture for personal communication among friends and family that resists censorship and surveillance. At its core are two novel techniques, an efficient routing scheme based on the predictability of human locations anda variant of onion-routing suitable for decentralized MANETs. (2) We describe the design and implementation of Shout, a MANET architecture for censorship-resistant, Twitter-like public microblogging. (3) We describe the Mason test, amethod used to detect Sybil attacks in ad hoc networks in which trusted authorities are not available. (4) We characterize and model the aggregate behavior of Twitter users to enable simulation-based study of systems like Shout. We use our characterization of the retweet graph to analyze a novel spammer detection technique for Shout.PhDComputer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/107314/1/drbild_1.pd

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationDue to the popularity of Web 2.0 and Social Media in the last decade, the percolation of user generated content (UGC) has rapidly increased. In the financial realm, this results in the emergence of virtual investing communities (VIC) to the investing public. There is an on-going debate among scholars and practitioners on whether such UGC contain valuable investing information or mainly noise. I investigate two major studies in my dissertation. First I examine the relationship between peer influence and information quality in the context of individual characteristics in stock microblogging. Surprisingly, I discover that the set of individual characteristics that relate to peer influence is not synonymous with those that relate to high information quality. In relating to information quality, influentials who are frequently mentioned by peers due to their name value are likely to possess higher information quality while those who are better at diffusing information via retweets are likely to associate with lower information quality. Second I propose a study to explore predictability of stock microblog dimensions and features over stock price directional movements using data mining classification techniques. I find that author-ticker-day dimension produces the highest predictive accuracy inferring that this dimension is able to capture both relevant author and ticker information as compared to author-day and ticker-day. In addition to these two studies, I also explore two topics: network structure of co-tweeted tickers and sentiment annotation via crowdsourcing. I do this in order to understand and uncover new features as well as new outcome indicators with the objective of improving predictive accuracy of the classification or saliency of the explanatory models. My dissertation work extends the frontier in understanding the relationship between financial UGC, specifically stock microblogging with relevant phenomena as well as predictive outcomes