SEISMIC: A Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Predicting Tweet Popularity

Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future? We validate our model using one month of complete Twitter data and demonstrate a strong improvement in predictive accuracy over existing approaches. Our model gives only 15% relative error in predicting final size of an average information cascade after observing it for just one hour.Comment: 10 pages, published in KDD 201

The Bursty Dynamics of the Twitter Information Network

In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between the two. How does user information posting and seeking behavior interact with the evolution of the underlying social network structure? Here, we study ways in which network structure reacts to users posting and sharing content. We examine the complete dynamics of the Twitter information network, where users post and reshare information while they also create and destroy connections. We find that the dynamics of network structure can be characterized by steady rates of change, interrupted by sudden bursts. Information diffusion in the form of cascades of post re-sharing often creates such sudden bursts of new connections, which significantly change users' local network structure. These bursts transform users' networks of followers to become structurally more cohesive as well as more homogenous in terms of follower interests. We also explore the effect of the information content on the dynamics of the network and find evidence that the appearance of new topics and real-world events can lead to significant changes in edge creations and deletions. Lastly, we develop a model that quantifies the dynamics of the network and the occurrence of these bursts as a function of the information spreading through the network. The model can successfully predict which information diffusion events will lead to bursts in network dynamics

Interval-censored Transformer Hawkes: Detecting Information Operations using the Reaction of Social Systems

Social media is being increasingly weaponized by state-backed actors to elicit reactions, push narratives and sway public opinion. These are known as Information Operations (IO). The covert nature of IO makes their detection difficult. This is further amplified by missing data due to the user and content removal and privacy requirements. This work advances the hypothesis that the very reactions that Information Operations seek to elicit within the target social systems can be used to detect them. We propose an Interval-censored Transformer Hawkes (IC-TH) architecture and a novel data encoding scheme to account for both observed and missing data. We derive a novel log-likelihood function that we deploy together with a contrastive learning procedure. We showcase the performance of IC-TH on three real-world Twitter datasets and two learning tasks: future popularity prediction and item category prediction. The latter is particularly significant. Using the retweeting timing and patterns solely, we can predict the category of YouTube videos, guess whether news publishers are reputable or controversial and, most importantly, identify state-backed IO agent accounts. Additional qualitative investigations uncover that the automatically discovered clusters of Russian-backed agents appear to coordinate their behavior, activating simultaneously to push specific narratives

Causal Understanding of Why Users Share Hate Speech on Social Media

Hate speech on social media threatens the mental and physical well-being of individuals and is further responsible for real-world violence. An important driver behind the spread of hate speech and thus why hateful posts can go viral are reshares, yet little is known about why users reshare hate speech. In this paper, we present a comprehensive, causal analysis of the user attributes that make users reshare hate speech. However, causal inference from observational social media data is challenging, because such data likely suffer from selection bias, and there is further confounding due to differences in the vulnerability of users to hate speech. We develop a novel, three-step causal framework: (1) We debias the observational social media data by applying inverse propensity scoring. (2) We use the debiased propensity scores to model the latent vulnerability of users to hate speech as a latent embedding. (3) We model the causal effects of user attributes on users' probability of sharing hate speech, while controlling for the latent vulnerability of users to hate speech. Compared to existing baselines, a particular strength of our framework is that it models causal effects that are non-linear, yet still explainable. We find that users with fewer followers, fewer friends, and fewer posts share more hate speech. Younger accounts, in return, share less hate speech. Overall, understanding the factors that drive users to share hate speech is crucial for detecting individuals at risk of engaging in harmful behavior and for designing effective mitigation strategies

Birdspotter: A Tool for Analyzing and Labeling Twitter Users

The impact of online social media on societal events and institutions is profound; and with the rapid increases in user uptake, we are just starting to understand its ramifications. Social scientists and practitioners who model online discourse as a proxy for real-world behavior, often curate large social media datasets. A lack of available tooling aimed at non-data science experts frequently leaves this data (and the insights it holds) underutilized. Here, we propose birdspotter -- a tool to analyze and label Twitter users --, and birdspotter.ml -- an exploratory visualizer for the computed metrics. birdspotter provides an end-to-end analysis pipeline, from the processing of pre-collected Twitter data, to general-purpose labeling of users, and estimating their social influence, within a few lines of code. The package features tutorials and detailed documentation. We also illustrate how to train birdspotter into a fully-fledged bot detector that achieves better than state-of-the-art performances without making any Twitter API online calls, and we showcase its usage in an exploratory analysis of a topical COVID-19 dataset

Fighting Rumours on Social Media

With the advance of social platforms, people are sharing contents in an unprecedented scale. This makes social platforms an ideal place for spreading rumors. As rumors may have negative impacts on the real world, many rumor detection techniques have been proposed. In this proposal, we summarize several works that focus on two important steps of rumor detection. The first step involves detecting controversial events from the data streams which are candidates for rumors. The aim of the second step is to find out the truth values of these events i.e. whether they are rumors or not. Although some techniques are able to achieve state-of-the-art results, they do not cope well with the streaming nature of social platforms. In addition, they usually leverage only one type of information available on social platforms such as only the posts. To overcome these limitations, we propose two research directions that emphasize on 1) detecting rumors in a progressive manner and 2) combining different types of information for better detection