A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey

Intrusion Detection System using Bayesian Network Modeling

Computer Network Security has become a critical and important issue due to ever increasing cyber-crimes. Cybercrimes are spanning from simple piracy crimes to information theft in international terrorism. Defence security agencies and other militarily related organizations are highly concerned about the confidentiality and access control of the stored data. Therefore, it is really important to investigate on Intrusion Detection System (IDS) to detect and prevent cybercrimes to protect these systems. This research proposes a novel distributed IDS to detect and prevent attacks such as denial service, probes, user to root and remote to user attacks. In this work, we propose an IDS based on Bayesian network classification modelling technique. Bayesian networks are popular for adaptive learning, modelling diversity network traffic data for meaningful classification details. The proposed model has an anomaly based IDS with an adaptive learning process. Therefore, Bayesian networks have been applied to build a robust and accurate IDS. The proposed IDS has been evaluated against the KDD DAPRA dataset which was designed for network IDS evaluation. The research methodology consists of four different Bayesian networks as classification models, where each of these classifier models are interconnected and communicated to predict on incoming network traffic data. Each designed Bayesian network model is capable of detecting a major category of attack such as denial of service (DoS). However, all four Bayesian networks work together to pass the information of the classification model to calibrate the IDS system. The proposed IDS shows the ability of detecting novel attacks by continuing learning with different datasets. The testing dataset constructed by sampling the original KDD dataset to contain balance number of attacks and normal connections. The experiments show that the proposed system is effective in detecting attacks in the test dataset and is highly accurate in detecting all major attacks recorded in DARPA dataset. The proposed IDS consists with a promising approach for anomaly based intrusion detection in distributed systems. Furthermore, the practical implementation of the proposed IDS system can be utilized to train and detect attacks in live network traffi

Run-time risk management in adaptive ICT systems

We will present results of the SERSCIS project related to risk management and mitigation strategies in adaptive multi-stakeholder ICT systems. The SERSCIS approach involves using semantic threat models to support automated design-time threat identification and mitigation analysis. The focus of this paper is the use of these models at run-time for automated threat detection and diagnosis. This is based on a combination of semantic reasoning and Bayesian inference applied to run-time system monitoring data. The resulting dynamic risk management approach is compared to a conventional ISO 27000 type approach, and validation test results presented from an Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) scenario involving data exchange between multiple airport service providers