Public bus transport demand elasticities in India

A number of static and dynamic specifications of a log linear demand function for public transport are estimated using aggregate panel data for 22 Indian states over the period 1990 to 2001. Demand has been defined as total passenger kilometers to capture actual market transactions, while the regressors include public transit fare, per capita income, service quality, and other demographic and social variables. In all cases, transit demand is significant and inelastic to the fare. Service quality is the most significant policy variable. Finally, social and demographic variables highlight the complex nature of public bus transit demand in India.Demand Elasticities, Dynamic Panel Data, Bus Transport, India

A discrete choice approach to model credit card fraud

This paper analyses the demographic, socio-economics and banking specific determinants that influence the risk of fraud in a portfolio of credit cards. The data are from recent account archives for cards issued throughout Italy. A logit framework is employed that incorporates cards at a risk of fraud as the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables (e.g. gender, location, credit line, number of transactions in euros and in non euros currency). The empirical results provide useful indicators on the factors that are responsible for potential risk of fraud.credit card; fraud; demographic and socio-economics factors; logit modelling.

Robust Determinants of Income Growth in the Philippines

This paper studies the relationship between population dynamics and income growth in the Philippines using data from 74 provinces for the period 1985-2003. Simulation techniques were used to quantify the effect of population dynamics on the differences in income of the provinces. It also examines the robustness of the explanatory variables to determine "deep" determinants of income growth. The study shows that population variable is robustly related with growth and while it is not the sole culprit for the dismal growth performance over the years, it shows that the opportunities associated with the demographic transition are real and can provide the stimulus needed by the country.economic growth, population, population growth, demographic transition

Robust Determinants of Income Growth in the Philippines

This paper studies the relationship between population dynamics and income growth in the Philippines using data from 74 provinces for the period 1985-2003. Simulation techniques were used to quantify the effect of population dynamics on the differences in income of the provinces. It also examines the robustness of the explanatory variables to determine "deep" determinants of income growth. The study shows that population variable is robustly related with growth and while it is not the sole culprit for the dismal growth performance over the years, it shows that the opportunities associated with the demographic transition are real and can provide the stimulus needed by the country.economic growth, population, population growth, demographic transition

Incidence and correlates of delirium in a West African mental health clinic

Objective: <br/> <br/> To determine the incidence of delirium in those patients presenting to a psychiatric clinic in Nigeria and to examine if any demographic or clinical variables were correlated with this diagnosis. <br/> <br/> Method <br/> <br/> A prospective survey design; 264 consecutive new referrals to a psychiatric clinic in Nigeria were assessed for the presence of delirium using a standardised diagnostic scale. Data was analysed for normality and appropriate statistical test employed to examine the relationships between the presence of delirium and demographic and clinical variables. <br/> <br/> Results <br/> <br/> Of individuals presenting to the mental health clinics, 18.2% had delirium. No demographic variable was significant regarding the presence or absence of delirium. With regard to clinical variables duration of current symptoms, referral source and the presence of comorbid physical illness were significantly associated with the presence of delirium. Most delirium was due to infections. Nearly all patients with delirium were prescribed psychotropic medication (95.2%), and most attributed their symptoms to a spiritual cause.Conclusion(s) Delirium presents more commonly to psychiatry services in the less developed world compared to the West. Development efforts should focus on recognition and management of delirium to improve outcomes and maximise resource

Two-Locus Likelihoods under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation

Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ($n \leq 50$) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ($\mathcal{D} \geq 64$). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ($n \geq 256$). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. LDpop is freely available for download at https://github.com/popgenmethods/ldpopComment: 32 pages, 13 figure