The US Demographic Transition

Between 1800 and 1940 the U.S. went through a dramatic demographic transition. In 1800 the average woman had 7 children, and 94 percent of the population lived in rural areas. By 1940 the average woman birthed just 2 kids, and only 43 percent of populace lived in the country. The question is: What accounted for this shift in the demographic landscape? The answer given here is that technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing explains these facts.fertility, technological progress, agriculture, manufacturing

The U.S. demographic transition

agriculture;manufacturing;technological change

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN EUROPE

Using panel cointegration analysis, we show that a cointegration relationship exists among fertility choice, infant mortality, real wages and real per capita output. The results suggest that in low mortality economies reductions in infant mortality will decrease fertility.

The U.S. demographic transition

Between 1800 and 1940, the United States went through a dramatic demographic transition. In 1800, the average woman had seven children, and 94 percent of the population lived in rural areas. By 1940, the average woman birthed just two kids, and only 43 percent of the populace lived in the country. The question is: What accounted for this shift in the demographic landscape? The answer given here is that technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing explains these facts.

Luddites and the Demographic Transition

Technological change was unskilled-labor-biased during the early Industrial Revolution, but is skill-biased today. This is not embedded in extant unified growth models. We develop a model which can endogenously account for these facts, where factor bias reflects profit-maximizing decisions by innovators. Endowments dictate that the early Industrial Revolution be unskilled-labor-biased. Increasing basic knowledge causes a growth takeoff, an income-led demand for fewer educated children, and the transition to skill-biased technological change. The simulated model tracks British industrialization in the 18th and 19th centuries and generates a demographic transition without relying on either rising skill premia or exogenous educational supply shocks.

Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition

In this paper we investigate the causal effect of life expectancy on economic growth by explicitly accounting for the role of the demographic transition. In addition to focusing on issues of empirical identification, this paper emphasizes the role of the econometric specification. We present a simple theory of the economic and demographic transition where individuals' education and fertility decisions depend on their life expectancy. The theory predicts that before the demographic transition improvements in life expectancy primarily increase population. Improvements in life expectancy do, however, reduce population growth and foster human capital accumulation after the onset of the demographic transition. This implies that the effect of life expectancy on population, human capital and income per capita is not the same before and after the demographic transition. Moreover, a sufficiently high life expectancy is ultimately the trigger of the transition to sustained income growth. We provide evidence supporting these predictions using data on exogenous mortality reductions in the context of the epidemiological revolution.life expectancy, demographic transition, epidemiological revolution, heterogeneous treatment effects

The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences

This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growthDemographic trnasition; Gender Gap; Human capital; Fertility; Mortality; Unified Growth Theory