61 research outputs found
Application of Deep Learning Long Short-Term Memory in Energy Demand Forecasting
The smart metering infrastructure has changed how electricity is measured in
both residential and industrial application. The large amount of data collected
by smart meter per day provides a huge potential for analytics to support the
operation of a smart grid, an example of which is energy demand forecasting.
Short term energy forecasting can be used by utilities to assess if any
forecasted peak energy demand would have an adverse effect on the power system
transmission and distribution infrastructure. It can also help in load
scheduling and demand side management. Many techniques have been proposed to
forecast time series including Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural
Network and Deep Learning. In this work we use Long Short Term Memory
architecture to forecast 3-day ahead energy demand across each month in the
year. The results show that 3-day ahead demand can be accurately forecasted
with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 3.15%. In addition to that, the paper
proposes way to quantify the time as a feature to be used in the training phase
which is shown to affect the network performance
A neural ordinary differential equations based approach for demand forecasting within power grid digital twins
Over the past few years, deep learning (DL) based electricity demand forecasting has received considerable attention amongst mathematicians, engineers and data scientists working within the smart grid domain. To this end, deep learning architectures such as deep neural networks (DNN), deep belief networks (DBN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been successfully applied to forecast the generation and consumption of a wide range of energy vectors. In this work, we show preliminary results for a residential load demand forecasting solution which is realized within the framework of power grid digital twin. To this end, a novel class of deep neural networks is adopted wherein the output of the network is efficiently computed via a black-box ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver. We introduce the readers to the main concepts behind this method followed by a real-world, data driven computational benchmark test case designed to study the numerical effectiveness of the proposed approach. Initial results suggest that the ODE based solutions yield acceptable levels of accuracy for wide range of prediction horizons. We conclude that the method could prove as a valuable tool to develop forecasting models within an electrical digital twin (EDT) framework, where, in addition to accurate prediction models, a time horizon independent, computationally scalable and compact model is often desired.This research that contributed to this paper was funded by the EPSRC/Innovate UK Centre for Smart Infrastructure and
Construction (CSIC) and Centre for Digital Built Britain (CDBB) at the University of Cambridge
Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks
The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches
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