The Importance of Default Options for Retirement Savings Outcomes: Evidence from the United States

This paper summarizes the empirical evidence on how defaults impact retirement savings outcomes. After outlining the salient features of the various sources of retirement income in the U.S., the paper presents the empirical evidence on how defaults impact retirement savings outcomes at all stages of the savings lifecycle, including savings plan participation, savings rates, asset allocation, and post-retirement savings distributions. The paper then discusses why defaults have such a tremendous impact on savings outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of public policy towards retirement saving when defaults matter.

Mortgage defaults

We incorporate house price risk and mortgages into a standard incomplete market (SIM) model. We calibrate the model to match U.S. data and we show that the model also ac- counts for non-targeted features of the data such as the distribution of down payments, the life-cycle profile of home ownership, and the mortgage default rate. In addition, we show that the average coefficients that measure the agents' ability to self-insure against income shocks are similar to those of a SIM model without housing (as presented by Kaplan and Violante, 2010). However, incorporating housing increases the values of these coefficient for younger agents, which narrows the gap between the SIM model's implications and the data. The response of consumption to house price shocks is minimal. We also study the effects of default prevention policies. Introducing a minimum down payment requirement of 15% reduces defaults on mortgages by 30%, reduces the home ownership rate up to only 0.2 percentage points (if the aggregate house price level does not adjust), and may cause house prices to decline up to 0.7% (if home ownership does not adjust). Garnishing defaulters' income in excess of 43% of median consumption for one year produces a similar decline in defaults; but, since it reduces the median equilibrium down payment from 19% to 9%, it boosts home ownership up to 4.3 percentage points (if the aggregate house price level does not adjust) and may increase house prices up to 16.1% (if home ownership does not adjust). The introduction of minimum down payments or income garnishment benefit a majority of the population.Mortgage loans ; Default (Finance)

Passive Decisions and Potent Defaults

Default options have an enormous impact on household choices.' Defaults matter because opting out of a default is costly and these costs change over time, generating an option value of waiting. In addition, people have a tendency to procrastinate. We develop a theory of optimal defaults based on these considerations. We find that it is sometimes optimal to set extreme defaults, which are far away from the mean optimal savings rate. A default that is far away from a consumer's optimal savings rate may make that consumer better off since such a bad' default will lead procrastinating consumers to more quickly opt out of the default. We calibrate our model and use it to calculate optimal defaults for employees at four different companies. Our work suggests that optimal defaults are likely to be at one of three savings rates: the minimum savings rate (i.e., 0%), the match threshold (typically 5% or 6%), or the maximal savings rate.

Delayed Default Dependency and Default Contagion

Delayed, hence non-simultaneous, dependent defaults are discussed in a reduced form model. The model is a generalization of a multi-factor model based on simultaneous defaults to incorporate delayed defaults. It provides a natural smoothening of discontinuities in the joint probability densities in models with simultaneous defaults. It is a dynamic model that exhibits default contagion in a multi-factor setting. It admits an efficient Monte Carlo simulation algorithm that can handle heterogeneous collections of credit names. It can be calibrated to provide exact fits to CDX.NA.IG and iTraxx Europe CDOs just as its version with simultaneous defaults.Default Risk; Default Correlation; Default Contagion; Delayed Default; CDO; Monte Carlo

Cosigners as Collateral

We investigate the role of cosigners as collateral using data from a South Indian financial institution. Using an exogenous change in the cosigner requirement, we establish a negative causal effect of cosigners on defaults: an increase in the number of cosigners reduces defaults all these equal. Our results suggest that a one-sixth increase in the number of cosigners reduces the incidence of a default by 7.5 percent. While most theories of collateral predict that increased cosigners will reduce defaults, we are first to find empirical evidence of this effect.credit, default, cosigner, rosca

Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages

This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subprime defaults that were closer to the actual default experience for loans originated in 2006 and 2007. However, for prime loans one would have also had to anticipate that defaults would become much more sensitive to home prices.

Multiple defaults and contagion risks

We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing formula by establishing a relationship between the enlarged filtration and the reference default-free filtration in the random measure framework. On each default scenario, the formula can be interpreted as a Radon-Nikodym derivative of random measures. The contagion risks are studied in the multi-defaults setting where we consider the optimal investment problem in a contagion risk model and show that the optimization can be effectuated in a recursive manner with respect to the default-free filtration