652 research outputs found
STAR: A Concise Deep Learning Framework for Citywide Human Mobility Prediction
Human mobility forecasting in a city is of utmost importance to
transportation and public safety, but with the process of urbanization and the
generation of big data, intensive computing and determination of mobility
pattern have become challenging. This study focuses on how to improve the
accuracy and efficiency of predicting citywide human mobility via a simpler
solution. A spatio-temporal mobility event prediction framework based on a
single fully-convolutional residual network (STAR) is proposed. STAR is a
highly simple, general and effective method for learning a single tensor
representing the mobility event. Residual learning is utilized for training the
deep network to derive the detailed result for scenarios of citywide
prediction. Extensive benchmark evaluation results on real-world data
demonstrate that STAR outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in single- and
multi-step prediction while utilizing fewer parameters and achieving higher
efficiency.Comment: Accepted by MDM 201
UrbanFM: Inferring Fine-Grained Urban Flows
Urban flow monitoring systems play important roles in smart city efforts
around the world. However, the ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices,
such as CCTVs, induces a long-lasting and enormous cost for maintenance and
operation. This suggests the need for a technology that can reduce the number
of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and
granularity. In this paper, we aim to infer the real-time and fine-grained
crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task
is challenging due to two reasons: the spatial correlations between coarse- and
fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle
these issues, we develop a method entitled UrbanFM based on deep neural
networks. Our model consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to
generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs by using a
feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a
general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the
influences of different external factors. Extensive experiments on two
real-world datasets, namely TaxiBJ and HappyValley, validate the effectiveness
and efficiency of our method compared to seven baselines, demonstrating the
state-of-the-art performance of our approach on the fine-grained urban flow
inference problem
Bridging the Gap Between Training and Inference for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Spatio-temporal sequence forecasting is one of the fundamental tasks in
spatio-temporal data mining. It facilitates many real world applications such
as precipitation nowcasting, citywide crowd flow prediction and air pollution
forecasting. Recently, a few Seq2Seq based approaches have been proposed, but
one of the drawbacks of Seq2Seq models is that, small errors can accumulate
quickly along the generated sequence at the inference stage due to the
different distributions of training and inference phase. That is because
Seq2Seq models minimise single step errors only during training, however the
entire sequence has to be generated during the inference phase which generates
a discrepancy between training and inference. In this work, we propose a novel
curriculum learning based strategy named Temporal Progressive Growing Sampling
to effectively bridge the gap between training and inference for
spatio-temporal sequence forecasting, by transforming the training process from
a fully-supervised manner which utilises all available previous ground-truth
values to a less-supervised manner which replaces some of the ground-truth
context with generated predictions. To do that we sample the target sequence
from midway outputs from intermediate models trained with bigger timescales
through a carefully designed decaying strategy. Experimental results
demonstrate that our proposed method better models long term dependencies and
outperforms baseline approaches on two competitive datasets.Comment: ECAI 2020 Accepted, preprin
STG2Seq: Spatial-temporal Graph to Sequence Model for Multi-step Passenger Demand Forecasting
Multi-step passenger demand forecasting is a crucial task in on-demand
vehicle sharing services. However, predicting passenger demand over multiple
time horizons is generally challenging due to the nonlinear and dynamic
spatial-temporal dependencies. In this work, we propose to model multi-step
citywide passenger demand prediction based on a graph and use a hierarchical
graph convolutional structure to capture both spatial and temporal correlations
simultaneously. Our model consists of three parts: 1) a long-term encoder to
encode historical passenger demands; 2) a short-term encoder to derive the
next-step prediction for generating multi-step prediction; 3) an
attention-based output module to model the dynamic temporal and channel-wise
information. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our model
consistently outperforms many baseline methods and state-of-the-art models.Comment: 7 page
- …