Detecting structural breaks in seasonal time series by regularized optimization

Real-world systems are often complex, dynamic, and nonlinear. Understanding the dynamics of a system from its observed time series is key to the prediction and control of the system's behavior. While most existing techniques tacitly assume some form of stationarity or continuity, abrupt changes, which are often due to external disturbances or sudden changes in the intrinsic dynamics, are common in time series. Structural breaks, which are time points at which the statistical patterns of a time series change, pose considerable challenges to data analysis. Without identification of such break points, the same dynamic rule would be applied to the whole period of observation, whereas false identification of structural breaks may lead to overfitting. In this paper, we cast the problem of decomposing a time series into its trend and seasonal components as an optimization problem. This problem is ill-posed due to the arbitrariness in the number of parameters. To overcome this difficulty, we propose the addition of a penalty function (i.e., a regularization term) that accounts for the number of parameters. Our approach simultaneously identifies seasonality and trend without the need of iterations, and allows the reliable detection of structural breaks. The method is applied to recorded data on fish populations and sea surface temperature, where it detects structural breaks that would have been neglected otherwise. This suggests that our method can lead to a general approach for the monitoring, prediction, and prevention of structural changes in real systems.Comment: Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures (Edited by George Deodatis, Bruce R. Ellingwood and Dan M. Frangopol), CRC Press 2014, Pages 3621-362

Modelling and identification of a six axes industrial robot

This paper deals with the modelling and identification of a six axes industrial St ¨aubli RX90 robot. A non-linear finite element method is used to generate the dynamic equations of motion in a form suitable for both simulation and identification. The latter requires that the equations of motion are linear in the inertia parameters. Joint friction is described by a friction model that describes the friction behaviour in the full velocity range necessary for identification. Experimental parameter identification by means of linear least squares techniques showed to be very suited for identification of the unknown parameters, provided that the problem is properly scaled and that the influence of disturbances is sufficiently analysed and managed. An analysis of the least squares problem by means of a singular value decomposition is preferred as it not only solves the problem of rank deficiency, but it also can correctly deal with measurement noise and unmodelled dynamics

Robust regularized singular value decomposition with application to mortality data

We develop a robust regularized singular value decomposition (RobRSVD) method for analyzing two-way functional data. The research is motivated by the application of modeling human mortality as a smooth two-way function of age group and year. The RobRSVD is formulated as a penalized loss minimization problem where a robust loss function is used to measure the reconstruction error of a low-rank matrix approximation of the data, and an appropriately defined two-way roughness penalty function is used to ensure smoothness along each of the two functional domains. By viewing the minimization problem as two conditional regularized robust regressions, we develop a fast iterative reweighted least squares algorithm to implement the method. Our implementation naturally incorporates missing values. Furthermore, our formulation allows rigorous derivation of leave-one-row/column-out cross-validation and generalized cross-validation criteria, which enable computationally efficient data-driven penalty parameter selection. The advantages of the new robust method over nonrobust ones are shown via extensive simulation studies and the mortality rate application.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS649 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Multisource Self-calibration for Sensor Arrays

Calibration of a sensor array is more involved if the antennas have direction dependent gains and multiple calibrator sources are simultaneously present. We study this case for a sensor array with arbitrary geometry but identical elements, i.e. elements with the same direction dependent gain pattern. A weighted alternating least squares (WALS) algorithm is derived that iteratively solves for the direction independent complex gains of the array elements, their noise powers and their gains in the direction of the calibrator sources. An extension of the problem is the case where the apparent calibrator source locations are unknown, e.g., due to refractive propagation paths. For this case, the WALS method is supplemented with weighted subspace fitting (WSF) direction finding techniques. Using Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that both methods are asymptotically statistically efficient and converge within two iterations even in cases of low SNR.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure