68 research outputs found
Role of intuition in the decision process of expert ski guides
High quality decision-making can be produced through a sophisticated
analytical process in addition to an intuitive process. A high quality intuitive process
is dependent on an extensive repertoire of previous patterns generated by decision
outcomes. Intuition is frequently poorly understood and often dismissed as
unreliable and irrelevant. Yet there is a noteworthy sector within the literature that
suggests otherwise (Glöckner, 2009; Smith, 2007). Termed dual-process (Evans,
2010), the combined strength of intuition and analysis forms the basis of how expert
ski guides make decisions in avalanche terrain. Typically, the quality of the decision
process is described as being contingent on the evolved expertise of the decision
maker. Deliberate practice (Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Romer, 1993) aimed at the
development of context specific expertise provides the foundation.
Ski guides are charged with the role of conducting guests through a
constantly changing, hazardous environment with the goal of maximizing the guests’
rewards, within a risk envelope that does not eliminate the potential for a fatality.
The challenge for ski guides is to formulate an operational context within a feedback
environment that is plagued with inconsistencies and burdened with massive
negative consequences. The ski guide decision process is influenced by the depth
and breadth of expertise, with rapid pattern recognition generating a sense of
confidence. However misleading environmental feedback can complicate the
perception of decision quality. When nothing bad happens, poor decisions can
masquerade as good ones. This may support the development of a faulty pattern
recognition process.
Research that helps to describe the innovative practices and extant knowledge
of mountain guiding will help to harmonise theory and practice. There is
considerable knowledge entrenched within the daily activities of the Canadian
mechanized ski industry, as the average annual fatality rate is just under one and a
half fatalities per 100,000 skier days. However it is arguable that even this number
of fatalities is too many and all efforts should be made to reduce the number of
fatalities.
Data were contributed over two seasons (2008/09 and 2009/10) by a self-selected
group of 35 heli-ski and snowcat-ski guides working in British Columbia.
Mixed methods were used to analyse three sources of data. An initial quantitative
analysis of the participants’ background experience and 96 event reports (62 good
day reports and 34 near-miss reports) was used to provoke qualitative questions of
interview data.
The findings of this study address the issue of how and when intuition plays a
role in ski guide decision-making. Decision-making in avalanche terrain is a
complex process and professional guides have well developed strategies to help them
manage the challenges. Years of training in analytical decision processes are
supported by a wealth of available snowpack and weather information. Guiding
teams provide a valuable peer support network to further the sophistication of the
decision process. Yet despite the wealth of information available to support an
analytical decision, most decisions are influenced by an intuitive factor
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