Improved Memory-Bounded Dynamic Programming for Decentralized POMDPs

Memory-Bounded Dynamic Programming (MBDP) has proved extremely effective in solving decentralized POMDPs with large horizons. We generalize the algorithm and improve its scalability by reducing the complexity with respect to the number of observations from exponential to polynomial. We derive error bounds on solution quality with respect to this new approximation and analyze the convergence behavior. To evaluate the effectiveness of the improvements, we introduce a new, larger benchmark problem. Experimental results show that despite the high complexity of decentralized POMDPs, scalable solution techniques such as MBDP perform surprisingly well.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2007

Optimizing Memory-Bounded Controllers for Decentralized POMDPs

We present a memory-bounded optimization approach for solving infinite-horizon decentralized POMDPs. Policies for each agent are represented by stochastic finite state controllers. We formulate the problem of optimizing these policies as a nonlinear program, leveraging powerful existing nonlinear optimization techniques for solving the problem. While existing solvers only guarantee locally optimal solutions, we show that our formulation produces higher quality controllers than the state-of-the-art approach. We also incorporate a shared source of randomness in the form of a correlation device to further increase solution quality with only a limited increase in space and time. Our experimental results show that nonlinear optimization can be used to provide high quality, concise solutions to decentralized decision problems under uncertainty.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2007

Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning agent to generate a local approximate posterior, the agents transmit their local posteriors to other agents in the network, and finally each agent combines its set of received local posteriors. The key insight in this work is that, for many Bayesian models, approximate inference schemes destroy symmetry and dependencies in the model that are crucial to the correct application of Bayes' rule when combining the local posteriors. The proposed method addresses this issue by including an additional optimization step in the combination procedure that accounts for these broken dependencies. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that the decentralized method provides advantages in computational performance and predictive test likelihood over previous batch and distributed methods.Comment: This paper was presented at UAI 2014. Please use the following BibTeX citation: @inproceedings{Campbell14_UAI, Author = {Trevor Campbell and Jonathan P. How}, Title = {Approximate Decentralized Bayesian Inference}, Booktitle = {Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI)}, Year = {2014}

Federated Neural Architecture Search

To preserve user privacy while enabling mobile intelligence, techniques have been proposed to train deep neural networks on decentralized data. However, training over decentralized data makes the design of neural architecture quite difficult as it already was. Such difficulty is further amplified when designing and deploying different neural architectures for heterogeneous mobile platforms. In this work, we propose an automatic neural architecture search into the decentralized training, as a new DNN training paradigm called Federated Neural Architecture Search, namely federated NAS. To deal with the primary challenge of limited on-client computational and communication resources, we present FedNAS, a highly optimized framework for efficient federated NAS. FedNAS fully exploits the key opportunity of insufficient model candidate re-training during the architecture search process, and incorporates three key optimizations: parallel candidates training on partial clients, early dropping candidates with inferior performance, and dynamic round numbers. Tested on large-scale datasets and typical CNN architectures, FedNAS achieves comparable model accuracy as state-of-the-art NAS algorithm that trains models with centralized data, and also reduces the client cost by up to two orders of magnitude compared to a straightforward design of federated NAS

MAA*: A Heuristic Search Algorithm for Solving Decentralized POMDPs

We present multi-agent A* (MAA*), the first complete and optimal heuristic search algorithm for solving decentralized partially-observable Markov decision problems (DEC-POMDPs) with finite horizon. The algorithm is suitable for computing optimal plans for a cooperative group of agents that operate in a stochastic environment such as multirobot coordination, network traffic control, `or distributed resource allocation. Solving such problems efiectively is a major challenge in the area of planning under uncertainty. Our solution is based on a synthesis of classical heuristic search and decentralized control theory. Experimental results show that MAA* has significant advantages. We introduce an anytime variant of MAA* and conclude with a discussion of promising extensions such as an approach to solving infinite horizon problems.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-First Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2005

A Model of Total Factor Productivity Built on Hayek’s View of Knowledge: What Really Went Wrong with Socialist Planned Economies?

Because Hayek’s view goes beyond the Walrasian framework, his descriptive arguments on socialist planned economies are prone to be misunderstood. This paper clarifies Hayek’s arguments by using them as a basis to construct a model of total factor productivity. The model shows that productivity depends substantially on the intelligence of ordinary workers. The model indicates that the essential reason for the reduced productivity of a socialist economy is that, even though human beings are imperfect and do not know everything about the universe, they are able to utilize their intelligence to innovate. Decentralized market economies are far more productive than socialist economies because they intrinsically can fully utilize human beings’ intelligence, but socialist planned economies cannot, in large part because of the imagined perfect central planning bureau that does not exist.Hayek; Market economy; Socialist planned economy; Total factor productivity; Innovation; Experience curve effect; China

Facing Catastrophe - Risk and Response: The 9-11 and 11-M Commissions' Blind Sides

Background thinking for the upcoming Madrid terrorism summit stems partly from the 9/11 Commission and Spain's Comisión 11-M. Their presentations fall short on pinpointing the sources of attacks that carry the most risk and how best to respond. Terrorist attacks over the last decades follow a power-law distribution, which anticipates future terrorist events with ever broader effects. Intelligence estimates based on models keyed to frequency and recency of past occurrences make us less secure even if they predict most terrorist events. Evolution, complex adaptive systems, and WWII experience from British intelligence provide salutary lessons for thinking “outside the box” with decentralized expertise. History shows that people do not readily panic in surprise attacks and that local actors may be best able to organize response efforts. Proposals to centralize intelligence and unify command and control are not promising given recent transformations in terrorist networks in the wake of Al-Qaeda's operational demise.