VAST: An ASKAP Survey for Variables and Slow Transients

The Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) will give us an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the transient sky at radio wavelengths. In this paper we present VAST, an ASKAP survey for Variables and Slow Transients. VAST will exploit the wide-field survey capabilities of ASKAP to enable the discovery and investigation of variable and transient phenomena from the local to the cosmological, including flare stars, intermittent pulsars, X-ray binaries, magnetars, extreme scattering events, interstellar scintillation, radio supernovae and orphan afterglows of gamma ray bursts. In addition, it will allow us to probe unexplored regions of parameter space where new classes of transient sources may be detected. In this paper we review the known radio transient and variable populations and the current results from blind radio surveys. We outline a comprehensive program based on a multi-tiered survey strategy to characterise the radio transient sky through detection and monitoring of transient and variable sources on the ASKAP imaging timescales of five seconds and greater. We also present an analysis of the expected source populations that we will be able to detect with VAST.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures. Submitted for publication in Pub. Astron. Soc. Australi

Traveling wave packets of total electron content disturbances as deduced from global GPS network data

We identified a new class of mid-latitude medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MS TIDs), viz. traveling wave packets (TWPs) of total electron content (TEC) disturbances. For the first time, the morphology of TWPs is presented for 105 days. Using the technique of GPS interferometry of TIDs we carried out a detailed analysis of the spatial-temporal properties of TWPs by considering an example of the most conspicuous manifestation of TWPs on October 18, 2001 over California, USA. The velocity and direction of TWPs correspond to those of mid-latitude MS TIDs obtained previously from analyzing the phase characteristics of HF radio signals as well as signals from geostationary satellites and discrete cosmic radio sources.Comment: LaTeX2.09, 28 pages, 9 figure

How to avoid potential pitfalls in recurrence plot based data analysis

Recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis have become popular in the last two decades. Recurrence based methods have on the one hand a deep foundation in the theory of dynamical systems and are on the other hand powerful tools for the investigation of a variety of problems. The increasing interest encompasses the growing risk of misuse and uncritical application of these methods. Therefore, we point out potential problems and pitfalls related to different aspects of the application of recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis

Scaling Analysis and Evolution Equation of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index Fluctuations

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) monthly index is studied from 1825 till 2002 in order to identify the scaling ranges of its fluctuations upon different delay times and to find out whether or not it can be regarded as a Markov process. A Hurst rescaled range analysis and a detrended fluctuation analysis both indicate the existence of weakly persistent long range time correlations for the whole scaling range and time span hereby studied. Such correlations are similar to Brownian fluctuations. The Fokker-Planck equation is derived and Kramers-Moyal coefficients estimated from the data. They are interpreted in terms of a drift and a diffusion coefficient as in fluid mechanics. All partial distribution functions of the NAO monthly index fluctuations have a form close to a Gaussian, for all time lags, in agreement with the findings of the scaling analyses. This indicates the lack of predictive power of the present NAO monthly index. Yet there are some deviations for large (and thus rare) events. Whence suggestions for other measurements are made if some improved predictability of the weather/climate in the North Atlantic is of interest. The subsequent Langevin equation of the NAO signal fluctuations is explicitly written in terms of the diffusion and drift parameters, and a characteristic time scale for these is given in appendix.Comment: 6 figures, 54 refs., 16 pages; submitted to Int. J. Mod. Phys. C: Comput. Phy