Impatti dell'automazione sul mercato del lavoro. Prime stime per il caso italiano.

The causes of the present decline of demand in labor markets in developed countries are subject to considerable theoretical debate. More specifically, according to some authors, globalization and offshoring together with technological innovation, could lead to further negative impacts on real employment. Some studies estimate that the contribution of automation is the actual cause of job loss: in the US the introduction of robots by 2021 could lead to a cut of more than 6% of the workforce (FORRESTER 2016), and as much as 54% in Europe in the coming decades (Bowles 2014), although the greatest impact would occur in developing countries, where automation could weaken the traditional comparative advantages in terms of labor costs (UN 2016). The Italian case is particularly interesting, as the automation was introduced in large enterprises over three decades ago, determining a deep impact in terms of loss for low skilled jobs. This paper aims to provide a first quantification of the impacts on Italian labor market determined by the spread of latest technological innovations, both in terms of employment levels and social/territorial mobility, by differentiating its effects per macro-geographical breakdown of the country

Statistics in the Big Data era

It is estimated that about 90% of the currently available data have been produced over the last two years. Of these, only 0.5% is effectively analysed and used. However, this data can be a great wealth, the oil of 21st century, when analysed with the right approach. In this article, we illustrate some specificities of these data and the great interest that they can represent in many fields. Then we consider some challenges to statistical analysis that emerge from their analysis, suggesting some strategies

Deep learning for supervised classification

One of the most recent area in the Machine Learning research is Deep Learning. Deep Learning algorithms have been applied successfully to computer vision, automatic speech recognition, natural language processing, audio recognition and bioinformatics. The key idea of Deep Learning is to combine the best techniques from Machine Learning to build powerful general‑purpose learning algorithms. It is a mistake to identify Deep Neural Networks with Deep Learning Algorithms. Other approaches are possible, and in this paper we illustrate a generalization of Stacking which has very competitive performances. In particular, we show an application of this approach to a real classification problem, where a three-stages Stacking has proved to be very effective

Por uma história política das populações:Traduit de "Pour une histoire politique des populations"

De que maneira fazer a história das populações? A resposta é fornecida por Louis Henry à INED, que nas décadas do pós-guerra promove uma demografia histórica essencialmente estatística, da qual em seguida se ocupa também Fernand Braudel e a escola dos Annales. Mas nos anos 1980 a desconstrução das categorias inspirada em Michel Foucault, a crítica do objetivismo, a descoberta feita pela história da estatística das raízes ideológicas ambíguas da demografia (natalista, eugenia, controle biopolítico) são elementos que desestabilizam a disciplina. Para impedir que a reflexividade venha a substituir a produção de conhecimentos são introduzidos novos métodos (a micro-história) e novos objetos (as instituições). À antiga demografia histórica sucede-se uma história social e política das populações. Seu objeto é a construção simultânea de instituições, de políticas e de saberes relativos a elas. Condorcet combatido por Malthus; Achille Guillard, criador da palavra demografia, tal como naturalmente Maurice Halbwachs, formalizaram a natureza «social» da população. Em oposição às tentações sociobiológicas contemporâneas, o vínculo orgânico entre população e proteção social desperta toda a questão da auto-criação da sociedade

Inter-provincial migration in Italy: a comparison between Italians and foreigners

Internal migration in Italy increased in the 2000s due to foreigners residing in the country. Foreigners have changed the characteristics of Italy’s internal migration. Extended gravity models were run to highlight the differences between the migratory behaviours of Italians and foreigners. The model was implemented to detect the different effects of the Italian and foreign populations, and the distances between the provinces of origin and destinations of the inter-provincial migration of Italians and foreigners. Estimations obtained for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 highlight the different evolutions of the phenomenon

Demographic sensitivity inside the local authorities

The knowledge of the administrated population it is not wll appreciated at local level by the Administrators (Majors, Councillors, Public Servants). The attention is more devoted to political items and the sensitivity for the numbers of the population is very feeble. The paper presents the main results a research made in may Municiplities in some Italian Regions (Toscana, Lazio, Molise, Campania, Puglie, Calabria) during 1996. Different topics were put to the attention of the Administrators and they were asked to quantify different demographic and social phenomena in their own institution. The questions were the relevance they assigned to the different matters, how many times they have discussed of said topics in the council, the general (at national level) importance of each aspect. Only recently some main changes appear: The Regions have experienced important demographic changes deeply affecting the local populations and consequently the Local Powers. This is the case of the experience of a so fst decrease in fertility, or the case of the rapid change of several regions from egigration into immigration areas. Unemployment, the elder survival, the family planning, the education, the youth problems, the immigrated population are some of the questions posed to the interviewees. Quite frequently an incoherent process between the perception and the consequent requested action is standing.

Educational assortative mating in Italy: what can Gini’s homogamy index still say?

The homogamy index proposed by Gini is applied to describe the changes occurred in marital choice - across time and regions in Italy. The relevant increase in education by women has provoked an increase in the number of homogamous couples and in an increasing proportion of women who marry downward. Relevant differences are observed in the case of informal unions and mixed marriages

Cause-specific mortality as a sentinel indicator of current socioeconomic conditions in Italy

This study aims to assess whether simple, widely available demographic indexes, like mortality measures, may serve as sentinel indicators of the economic development and the social wellbeing in Italy. We analyze and compare the geographical patterns of all-cause mortality indexes and those of the mortality rates for leading causes of death, with the spatial pattern found for a more complex index, the vulnerability index, recently introduced by the Italian National Institute for Statistics, at provincial level in the contemporary Italy. We show that mortality data are a straightforward and powerful tool for driving policy makers in planning appropriate interventions

The power of the statistics and the statistics of the power. Notes on the contribution of António de Almeida Garrett for the population studies in Portugal

Este texto apresenta os resultados de uma incursão exploratória na obra de António de Almeida Garrett (1884-1961), em particular sobre o ensaio intitulado «Os Problemas da Natalidade», publicado em vinte artigos na Revista do Centro de Estudos Demográficos entre 1945 e 1955. Depois de contextualizar o autor no percurso da produção científica da demografia em Portugal, e de apresentar o conjunto de textos em análise, sintetizamos o contributo de António de Almeida Garrett, e deste ensaio em particular, para a história dos estudos de população e da demografia em Portugal, bem como para o estudo da própria Revista do Centro de Estudos Demográficos e das condições históricas da produção científica a que também a demografia, como qualquer outra ciência, está sujeita