The four freedoms in the EU: Are they inseparable? Bertelsmann Stiftung EUROPA Briefing 2017

The four freedoms govern the movement of goods, persons, services and capital within the EU. They are the cornerstones of the Single Market and the common currency. Many citizens see them as the greatest achievement of the European unification project. Brexit has reignited the discussion surrounding the free movement of people - that is the opportunity to live and work in any EU country. Technically speaking, it is possible to separate the four freedoms, but does it make political sense

European taxes: Do we need them? Bertelsmann Stiftung EUROPA Briefing 2017

In the European Union, each member state is responsible for its tax system. Different national regimes help with tax competition, but can also lead to tax evasion or unfair rules in the Single Market. That is why better coordination or even standardisation of taxes is debated. What tax regulations are there already in the Single Market? What would be the advantages and disadvantages of a European tax? And what reforms are being discussed in Europe

Convergence: Are the Eurozone countries too different? Bertelsmann Stiftung EUROPA Briefing 2017

The Eurozone countries are economically different. The crisis has rendered some of these differences more acute and this could destabilize the currency union. The Eurozone countries therefore need to agree on which type of convergence is most important to them and the best way to achieve it. In what areas should they converge? What differences could or should remain? And what policy instruments are required to achieve this

Imbalances: Should the EU intervene? Bertelsmann Stiftung EUROPA Briefing 2017

Economic imbalances keep recurring in the EU. Differences in trade balances dominate the debate. Germany has been generating very high surpluses for years and meets criticism for this reason. Are imbalances a threat to the EU, and what role does the euro play in this? Should politicians adjust differences in the balance of trade? And if so, is that up to national governments or the EU

Markov Switching Models with Application to Contagion Effect Analysis in the Capital Markets

This article presents the analysis of the contagion effect in the capital markets on the basis of the Markov switching models MS. The research is based on the return of the indexes. There is a distinction of two regimes with different volatility levels, the calm period and the crisis period. Then the analysis of the period’s occurrence was conducted, in reference to global financial crisis. Periods with a similar level of volatility occurrence in the same time. This analysis evidences the shocks transmission between financial markets, what confirms an occurrence of the contagion effect.Markov switching model, contagion effect.

Estimating and Forecasting GDP in Poland with Dynamic Factor Model

Presented paper concerns the dynamic factor models theory and application in the econometric analysis of GDP in Poland. DFMs are used for construction of the economic indicators and in forecasting, in analyses of the monetary policy and international business cycles. In the article we compare the forecast accuracy of DFMs with the forecast accuracy of 2 competitive models: AR model and symptomatic model. We have used 41 quarterly time series from the Polish economy. The results are encouraging. The DFM outperforms other models. The best fitted to empirical data was model with 3 factors.Dynamic factor models, principal components analysis, GDP.