America: symptoms of decline

This article was an attempt to get the pulse of the zeitgeist visiting the USA in 1991

Is the Test Score Decline Responsible for the Productivity Growth Decline?

[Excerpt] The test score decline between 1967 and 1980 was large (about 1.25 grade-level equivalents) and historically unprecedented. New estimates of trend in academic achievement, of the effect of academic achievement on productivity and of trend in the quality of the work force are developed. They imply that if test scores had continued to grow after 1967 at the rate that prevailed in the previous quarter century, labor quality would now be 2.9 percent higher and 1987 GNP $86 billion higher

The Economic Decline of Zimbabwe

For the past decade, Zimbabwe has been experiencing an economic decline that has resulted in an inflation rate of 231 million percent and an unemployment rate of over 90 percent. Past research has concluded that the economic decline of Zimbabwe has mainly been caused by poor monetary policies and failure of fiscal policies to control the budget deficit. This research aimed to closely examine some of these policies that the Zimbabwean government implemented, the effects of these policies on economic activity, employment and inflation levels in the country. By interviewing many economic analysts in Zimbabwe, I managed to gather the main causes of the country’s decline. In an effort to understand the effects of inflation on a country, I looked at other developing countries that have survived similar economic challenges and assessed some of the steps they took to overcome the challenges. From the research, I managed to conclude that although government policies on agriculture, participation in armed conflicts, government spending and investment have been weak, structural reforms can be successfully implemented to get the economy functioning again

How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States?

Wind-plant performance declines with age, and the rate of decline varies between regions. The rate of performance decline is important when determining wind-plant financial viability and expected lifetime generation. We determine the rate of age-related performance decline in the United States wind fleet by evaluating generation records from 917 plants. We find the rate of performance decline to be 0.53%/year for older vintages of plants and 0.17%/year for newer vintages of plants on an energy basis for the first 10 years of operation, which is on the lower end of prior estimates in Europe. Unique to the United States, we find a significant drop in performance by 3.6% after 10 years, as plants lose eligibility for the production tax credit. Certain plant characteristics, such as the ratio of blade length to nameplate capacity, influence the rate of performance decline. These results indicate that the performance decline rate can be partially managed and influenced by policy

The resistible decline of European science

Using a new data set that allows us to analyze precisely the research output in all fields of science, we show that the gap in scientific performance between Europe, especially continental Europe, and Anglo-Saxon countries, especially the USA, is large. We measure research quality by the number of highly cited researchers in nineteen selected scientific fields. After controlling for different variables, such as par capita GDP and outlays in R&D, the differences in productivity between Anglo-Saxon countries and other countries are explained, not surprisingly, by the importance of English proficiency, but also by the quality of institutions and of governance of the countries in the studied sample, the latter being in all likelihood highly correlated with the governance quality of research institutions

The impact of reforms on labour market exit probabilities

Early retirement schemes and disability insurance in the Netherlands have both been reformed during the past decades. The reforms have increased incentives to continue working and have decreased the substitution between early retirement and disability. This study investigates the impact of the reforms on labour market exit probabilities We use administrative data for workers in the Dutch health care sector between 1999 and 2006. We estimate a multinomial Logit model for transitions out of the labour force. The empirical results suggest that the reforms have been effective, as the labour market participation rate of the elderly has increased. The concept of substitute pathways into retirement seems less relevant today as the results confirm that disability insurance is closed off as an early retirement exit route. Key words: early retirement, disability insurance, labour supply �

Union Decline in Britain

In this paper I consider the rapid decline in the unionization rate that has occurred in Britain since the late 1970s. An establishment based analysis reports that the overwhelming factor in explaining falling unionization was a failure to organise the new sorts of establishments that were set up in the last twenty years or so. Patterns showing low rates of union recognition and density in new establishments set up in the 1980s and 1990s are seen to be very similar for new workplaces in both decades, reflecting that the developments since 1990 represent a continuation of the pattern revealed in earlier work for the 1980-90 period. The sharpest falls in unionization occurred in private manufacturing establishments set up post-1980, with significant falls also occurring, but from a lower initial level, in private sector services. In the public sector there is no establishment age based decline in recognition. Finally, there is some evidence that age of workplace, rather than age of worker, is the critical age based factor. This seems to be the case as the negative association between unionization and the post-1980 set up of the establishment is found to hold for workers of all ages.Union recognition, union density, establishment age

It is better than you think: fluid intelligence across the lifespan

The growth and decline of fluid intelligence is associated with brain structural changes. For example, development of fluid IQ is associated with cortex thickness during the critical period between 6 to 12 years old. On the other end of the lifespan, poor performance in cognitive functioning is attributed to a decrease of frontal gray matter density in elderly populations. In particular, there is a sharp decline in fluid IQ scores after 65 years of age. There is substantial evidence that working memory and fluid intelligence (Gf) share neural substrates, such as the prefrontal and parietal cortices. However, very little research has examined whether the pattern of growth and decline in working memory mirrors that of fluid intelligence. For example, does the decline of working memory skills in elderly populations mirror fluid intelligence? Is the rate of working memory decline similar to the rate of growth