Neural Likelihoods via Cumulative Distribution Functions

We leverage neural networks as universal approximators of monotonic functions to build a parameterization of conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). By the application of automatic differentiation with respect to response variables and then to parameters of this CDF representation, we are able to build black box CDF and density estimators. A suite of families is introduced as alternative constructions for the multivariate case. At one extreme, the simplest construction is a competitive density estimator against state-of-the-art deep learning methods, although it does not provide an easily computable representation of multivariate CDFs. At the other extreme, we have a flexible construction from which multivariate CDF evaluations and marginalizations can be obtained by a simple forward pass in a deep neural net, but where the computation of the likelihood scales exponentially with dimensionality. Alternatives in between the extremes are discussed. We evaluate the different representations empirically on a variety of tasks involving tail area probabilities, tail dependence and (partial) density estimation.Comment: 10 page

Cumulative distribution functions associated with bubble-nucleation processes in cavitation

Bubble-nucleation processes of a Lennard-Jones liquid are studied by molecular dynamics simulations. Waiting time, which is the lifetime of a superheated liquid, is determined for several system sizes, and the apparent finite-size effect of the nucleation rate is observed. From the cumulative distribution function of the nucleation events, the bubble-nucleation process is found to be not a simple Poisson process but a Poisson process with an additional relaxation time. The parameters of the exponential distribution associated with the process are determined by taking the relaxation time into account, and the apparent finite-size effect is removed. These results imply that the use of the arithmetic mean of the waiting time until a bubble grows to the critical size leads to an incorrect estimation of the nucleation rate.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figure

Hybrid Copula Estimators

An extension of the empirical copula is considered by combining an estimator of a multivariate cumulative distribution function with estimators of the marginal cumulative distribution functions for marginal estimators that are not necessarily equal to the margins of the joint estimator. Such a hybrid estimator may be reasonable when there is additional information available for some margins in the form of additional data or stronger modelling assumptions. A functional central limit theorem is established and some examples are developed.Comment: 17 page

Computationally efficient algorithms for the two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

Goodness-of-fit statistics measure the compatibility of random samples against some theoretical or reference probability distribution function. The classical one-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is a non-parametric statistic for comparing two empirical distributions which defines the largest absolute difference between the two cumulative distribution functions as a measure of disagreement. Adapting this test to more than one dimension is a challenge because there are 2^d-1 independent ways of ordering a cumulative distribution function in d dimensions. We discuss Peacock's version of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for two-dimensional data sets which computes the differences between cumulative distribution functions in 4n^2 quadrants. We also examine Fasano and Franceschini's variation of Peacock's test, Cooke's algorithm for Peacock's test, and ROOT's version of the two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We establish a lower-bound limit on the work for computing Peacock's test of Omega(n^2.lg(n)), introducing optimal algorithms for both this and Fasano and Franceschini's test, and show that Cooke's algorithm is not a faithful implementation of Peacock's test. We also discuss and evaluate parallel algorithms for Peacock's test

Display of probability densities for data from a continuous distribution

Based on cumulative distribution functions, Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we present a simple method to display probability densities for data drawn from a continuous distribution. It is often more efficient than using histograms.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, presented at Computer Simulation Studies XXIV, Athens, GA, 201

An R Implementation of the Polya-Aeppli Distribution

An efficient implementation of the Polya-Aeppli, or geometirc compound Poisson, distribution in the statistical programming language R is presented. The implementation is available as the package polyaAeppli and consists of functions for the mass function, cumulative distribution function, quantile function and random variate generation with those parameters conventionally provided for standard univatiate probability distributions in the stats package in RComment: 9 pages, 2 figure