Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Expanding credit access is a key ingredient of development strategies worldwide. Microfinance practitioners, policymakers, and donors have ambitious goals for expanding access, and seek efficient methods for implementing and evaluating expansion. There is less consensus on the role of consumer credit in expansion initiatives. Some microfinance institutions are moving beyond entrepreneurial credit and offering consumer loans. But many practitioners and policymakers are skeptical about “unproductive” lending. These concerns are fueled by academic work highlighting behavioral biases that may induce consumers to over borrow. We estimate the impacts of a consumer credit supply expansion using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. A South African lender relaxed its risk assessment criteria by encouraging its loan officers to approve randomly selected marginal rejected applications. We estimate the resulting impacts using new survey data on applicant households and administrative data on loan repayment, as well as public credit reports one and two years later. We find that the marginal loans produced significant benefits for borrowers across a wide range economic and well-being outcomes. We also find some evidence that the marginal loans were profitable for the Lender. The results suggest that consumer credit expansions can be welfare-improving.Microfinance, credit impact, consumer credit

Expanding Microenterprise Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts in Manila

Microcredit seeks to promote business growth and improve well-being by expanding access to credit. We use a field experiment and follow-up survey to measure impacts of a credit expansion for microentrepreneurs in Manila. The effects are diffuse, heterogeneous, and surprising. Although there is some evidence that profits increase, the mechanism seems to be that businesses shrink by shedding unproductive workers. Overall, borrowing households substitute away from labor (in both family and outside businesses), and into education. We also find substitution away from formal insurance, along with increases in access to informal risk-sharing mechanisms. Our treatment effects are stronger for groups that are not typically targeted by microlenders: male and higher-income entrepreneurs. In all, our results suggest that microcredit works broadly through risk management and investment at the household level, rather than directly through the targeted businesses.microfinance, microcredit, microentreprenuership, risk sharing, formal and informal finance

Innovative experiences in access to finance : market friendly roles for the visible hand ?

Interest in access to finance has increased significantly in recent years, as growing evidence suggests that lack of access to credit prevents lower-income households and small firms from financing high return investment projects, having an adverse effect on growth and poverty alleviation. This study describes some recent innovative experiences to broaden access to credit. These experiences are consistent with an emerging new view that recognizes a limited role for the public sector in financial markets, but contends that there might be room for well-designed, restricted interventions in collaboration with the private sector to foster financial development and broaden access. The authors illustrate this view with several recent experiences inLatin America and then discuss some open policy questions about the role of the public and private sectors in driving these financial innovations.Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,,Emerging Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress

Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%)

Replicating Microfinance in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges

In developing countries, microfinance has been the darling of the development community, and in developed countries, microfinance fits well with Third Ways ideas. What are the challenges and opportunities for the attempt to replicate microfinance in the United States? This paper attempts to sketch some answers. Two factors color much of the discussion. First, compared to the Third World, the structure of the U.S. economy makes the hurdles to starting small-businesses much higher in the United States, and, second, the microenterprise sector itself is much smaller. The two aspects combine to make business training a far more important component in the United States than in the Third World. They also limit potential demand for microfinance and drive up costs. With costs well above revenues, U.S. programs are far from achieving financial self-sufficiency. With continued reliance on donors, U.S. programs will have to work toward justifying their place among other subsidized anti-poverty interventions, including education and community-building initiatives. This suggests that serious, regular cost-effectiveness analyses should become a much higher priority than it has been. Our second broad conclusion is that developing inexpensive saving services for the "unbanked" appears to have greater potential for cost-recovery in the United States, and this could open up opportunities for millions of poor households that are poorly served by existing for- profit and non-profit financial institutions. The current focus on microlending in the US echoes the initial focus on lending in Third World programs, but those programs are increasingly recognizing the importance of also developing facilities for safe, convenient savings.Replication, microfinance, microenterprise, outreach, sustainability, financial education, self-employment, welfare reform, affordable housing, community development

Banks and microbanks

Using two new datasets, the authors examine whether the presence of banks affects the profitability and outreach of microfinance institutions. They find evidence that competition matters. Greater bank penetration in the overall economy is associated with microbanks pushing toward poorer markets, as reflected in smaller average loans sizes and greater outreach to women. The evidence is particularly strong for microbanks relying on commercial funding and using traditional bilateral lending contracts (rather than the group lending methods favored by microfinance nongovernmental organizations). The analysis considers plausible alternative explanations for the correlations, including relationships that run through the nature of the regulatory environment and the structure of the banking environment; but it fails to find strong support for these alternative hypotheses.Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Microfinance,Economic Theory&Research

Consumer credit in comparative perspective

We review the literature in sociology and related fields on the fast global growth of consumer credit and debt and the possible explanations for this expansion. We describe the ways people interact with the strongly segmented consumer credit system around the world—more specifically, the way they access credit and the way they are held accountable for their debt. We then report on research on two areas in which consumer credit is consequential: its effects on social relations and on physical and mental health. Throughout the article, we point out national variations and discuss explanations for these differences. We conclude with a brief discussion of the future tasks and challenges of comparative research on consumer credit.Accepted manuscrip

An Analysis of Repayment Among Clients of the Microfinance Institution Esperanza International, Dominican Republic

This research considers default among borrowers of Esperanza International, a microfinance institution in the Dominican Republic. Though Esperanza holds high repayment rates, it is of value to examine the 3 to 5 percent of clients that have not had success with the program. If success is defined as repayment and can be correlated with socioâ€economic characteristics, it may point towards the development of remedial programs and/or interventions. In coordination with organizational interests, this study examines 15,104 loans divided amongst 8,991 borrowers between April 2005 and October 2007. Default for each loan (defined as the failure to repay any quota for 120 days) is considered against gender, marital status, number of dependents, level of education, age, size of loan, type of microenterprise, and regional office. Results of a first linear regression indicate that regional office is most important among included variables. This is followed by education, gender, and marital status †with women, those with less education, and those classified as cohabitating defaulting less often. A second linear regression indicates that an alternate categorical division of microenterprise does not improve the variable’s significance. Two final regressions consider default separately among borrowers that were and were not identified as Dominicanâ€Haitian. These results showed that Dominicanâ€Haitians defaulted least often when widowed or married, and defaulted most often at the Santo Domingo office. Overall these results call for further investigation, particularly into dissimilarities among Esperanza’s various branches.Financial Economics,

Banking on Shared Value: How Banks Profit by Rethinking Their Purpose

This paper articulates a new role for banks in society using the lens of shared value. It is intended to help bank leaders, their partners, and industry regulators seize opportunities to create financial value while addressing unmet social and environmental needs at scale. The concepts included here apply across different types of banking, across different bank sizes, and across developed and emerging economies alike, although their implementation will naturally differ based on context