From 'tree' based Bayesian networks to mutual information classifiers : deriving a singly connected network classifier using an information theory based technique

For reasoning under uncertainty the Bayesian network has become the representation of choice. However, except where models are considered 'simple' the task of construction and inference are provably NP-hard. For modelling larger 'real' world problems this computational complexity has been addressed by methods that approximate the model. The Naive Bayes classifier, which has strong assumptions of independence among features, is a common approach, whilst the class of trees is another less extreme example. In this thesis we propose the use of an information theory based technique as a mechanism for inference in Singly Connected Networks. We call this a Mutual Information Measure classifier, as it corresponds to the restricted class of trees built from mutual information. We show that the new approach provides for both an efficient and localised method of classification, with performance accuracies comparable with the less restricted general Bayesian networks. To improve the performance of the classifier, we additionally investigate the possibility of expanding the class Markov blanket by use of a Wrapper approach and further show that the performance can be improved by focusing on the class Markov blanket and that the improvement is not at the expense of increased complexity. Finally, the two methods are applied to the task of diagnosing the 'real' world medical domain, Acute Abdominal Pain. Known to be both a different and challenging domain to classify, the objective was to investigate the optiniality claims, in respect of the Naive Bayes classifier, that some researchers have argued, for classifying in this domain. Despite some loss of representation capabilities we show that the Mutual Information Measure classifier can be effectively applied to the domain and also provides a recognisable qualitative structure without violating 'real' world assertions. In respect of its 'selective' variant we further show that the improvement achieves a comparable predictive accuracy to the Naive Bayes classifier and that the Naive Bayes classifier's 'overall' performance is largely due the contribution of the majority group Non-Specific Abdominal Pain, a group of exclusion

Learning Bayesian networks based on optimization approaches

Learning accurate classifiers from preclassified data is a very active research topic in machine learning and artifcial intelligence. There are numerous classifier paradigms, among which Bayesian Networks are very effective and well known in domains with uncertainty. Bayesian Networks are widely used representation frameworks for reasoning with probabilistic information. These models use graphs to capture dependence and independence relationships between feature variables, allowing a concise representation of the knowledge as well as efficient graph based query processing algorithms. This representation is defined by two components: structure learning and parameter learning. The structure of this model represents a directed acyclic graph. The nodes in the graph correspond to the feature variables in the domain, and the arcs (edges) show the causal relationships between feature variables. A directed edge relates the variables so that the variable corresponding to the terminal node (child) will be conditioned on the variable corresponding to the initial node (parent). The parameter learning represents probabilities and conditional probabilities based on prior information or past experience. The set of probabilities are represented in the conditional probability table. Once the network structure is constructed, the probabilistic inferences are readily calculated, and can be performed to predict the outcome of some variables based on the observations of others. However, the problem of structure learning is a complex problem since the number of candidate structures grows exponentially when the number of feature variables increases. This thesis is devoted to the development of learning structures and parameters in Bayesian Networks. Different models based on optimization techniques are introduced to construct an optimal structure of a Bayesian Network. These models also consider the improvement of the Naive Bayes' structure by developing new algorithms to alleviate the independence assumptions. We present various models to learn parameters of Bayesian Networks; in particular we propose optimization models for the Naive Bayes and the Tree Augmented Naive Bayes by considering different objective functions. To solve corresponding optimization problems in Bayesian Networks, we develop new optimization algorithms. Local optimization methods are introduced based on the combination of the gradient and Newton methods. It is proved that the proposed methods are globally convergent and have superlinear convergence rates. As a global search we use the global optimization method, AGOP, implemented in the open software library GANSO. We apply the proposed local methods in the combination with AGOP. Therefore, the main contributions of this thesis include (a) new algorithms for learning an optimal structure of a Bayesian Network; (b) new models for learning the parameters of Bayesian Networks with the given structures; and finally (c) new optimization algorithms for optimizing the proposed models in (a) and (b). To validate the proposed methods, we conduct experiments across a number of real world problems. Print version is available at: http://library.federation.edu.au/record=b1804607~S4Doctor of Philosoph

Ensemble learning in the presence of noise

Tesis Doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Departamento de Ingenieria Informática. Fecha de lectura: 14-02-2019La disponibilidad de grandes cantidades de datos provenientes de diversas fuentes ampl a enormemente las posibilidades para una explotaci on inteligente de la informaci on. No obstante, la extracci on de conocimiento a partir de datos en bruto es una tarea compleja que requiere el desarrollo de m etodos de aprendizaje e cientes y robustos. Una de las principales di cultades en el aprendizaje autom atico es la presencia de ruido en los datos. En esta tesis, abordamos el problema del aprendizaje autom atico en presencia de ruido. Para este prop osito, nos centraremos en el uso de conjuntos de clasi cadores. Nuestro objetivo es crear colecciones de aprendices base cuyos resultados, al ser combinados, mejoren no solo la precisi on sino tambi en la robustez de las predicciones. Una primera contribuci on de esta tesis es aprovechar el ratio de submuestreo para construir conjuntos de clasi cadores basados en bootstrap (como bagging o random forests) precisos y robustos. La idea de utilizar el submuestreo como mecanismo de regularizaci on tambi en se explota para la detecci on de ejemplos ruidosos. En concreto, los ejemplos que est an mal clasi cados por una fracci on de los miembros del conjunto se marcan como ruido. El valor optimo de este umbral se determina mediante validaci on cruzada. Las instancias ruidosas se eliminan ( ltrado) o se corrigen sus etiquetas de su clase (limpieza). Finalmente, se construye un conjunto de clasi cadores utilizando los datos de entrenamiento limpios ( ltrados o limpiados). Otra contribuci on de esta tesis es vote-boosting, un m etodo de conjuntos secuencial especialmente dise~nado para ser robusto al ruido en las etiquetas de clase. Vote-boosting reduce la excesiva sensibilidad a este tipo de ruido de los algoritmos basados en boosting, como adaboost. En general, los algoritmos basados en booting modi can la distribuci on de pesos en los datos de entrenamiento progresivamente para enfatizar instancias mal clasi cadas. Este enfoque codicioso puede terminar dando un peso excesivamente alto a instancias cuya etiqueta de clase sea incorrecta. Por el contrario, en vote-boosting, el enfasis se basa en el nivel de incertidumbre (acuerdo o desacuerdo) de la predicci on del conjunto, independientemente de la etiqueta de clase. Al igual que en boosting, voteboosting se puede analizar como una optimizaci on de descenso por gradiente en espacio funcional. Uno de los problemas abiertos en el aprendizaje de conjuntos es c omo construir combinaciones de clasi cadores fuertes. La principal di cultad es lograr diversidad entre los clasi cadores base sin un deterioro signi cativo de su rendimiento y sin aumentar en exceso el coste computacional. En esta tesis, proponemos construir conjuntos de SVM con la ayuda de mecanismos de aleatorizaci on y optimizaci on. Gracias a esta combinaci on de estrategias complementarias, es posible crear conjuntos de SVM que son mucho m as r apidos de entrenar y son potencialmente m as precisos que un SVM individual optimizado. Por ultimo, hemos desarrollado un procedimiento para construir conjuntos heterog eneos que interpolan sus decisiones a partir de conjuntos homog eneos compuestos por diferentes tipos de clasi cadores. La composici on optima del conjunto se determina mediante validaci on cruzada. v

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen