90,986 research outputs found
Time-Sensitive Bayesian Information Aggregation for Crowdsourcing Systems
Crowdsourcing systems commonly face the problem of aggregating multiple
judgments provided by potentially unreliable workers. In addition, several
aspects of the design of efficient crowdsourcing processes, such as defining
worker's bonuses, fair prices and time limits of the tasks, involve knowledge
of the likely duration of the task at hand. Bringing this together, in this
work we introduce a new time--sensitive Bayesian aggregation method that
simultaneously estimates a task's duration and obtains reliable aggregations of
crowdsourced judgments. Our method, called BCCTime, builds on the key insight
that the time taken by a worker to perform a task is an important indicator of
the likely quality of the produced judgment. To capture this, BCCTime uses
latent variables to represent the uncertainty about the workers' completion
time, the tasks' duration and the workers' accuracy. To relate the quality of a
judgment to the time a worker spends on a task, our model assumes that each
task is completed within a latent time window within which all workers with a
propensity to genuinely attempt the labelling task (i.e., no spammers) are
expected to submit their judgments. In contrast, workers with a lower
propensity to valid labeling, such as spammers, bots or lazy labelers, are
assumed to perform tasks considerably faster or slower than the time required
by normal workers. Specifically, we use efficient message-passing Bayesian
inference to learn approximate posterior probabilities of (i) the confusion
matrix of each worker, (ii) the propensity to valid labeling of each worker,
(iii) the unbiased duration of each task and (iv) the true label of each task.
Using two real-world public datasets for entity linking tasks, we show that
BCCTime produces up to 11% more accurate classifications and up to 100% more
informative estimates of a task's duration compared to state-of-the-art
methods
Stable Feature Selection for Biomarker Discovery
Feature selection techniques have been used as the workhorse in biomarker
discovery applications for a long time. Surprisingly, the stability of feature
selection with respect to sampling variations has long been under-considered.
It is only until recently that this issue has received more and more attention.
In this article, we review existing stable feature selection methods for
biomarker discovery using a generic hierarchal framework. We have two
objectives: (1) providing an overview on this new yet fast growing topic for a
convenient reference; (2) categorizing existing methods under an expandable
framework for future research and development
Explaining Aviation Safety Incidents Using Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning
Although aviation accidents are rare, safety incidents occur more frequently
and require a careful analysis to detect and mitigate risks in a timely manner.
Analyzing safety incidents using operational data and producing event-based
explanations is invaluable to airline companies as well as to governing
organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United
States. However, this task is challenging because of the complexity involved in
mining multi-dimensional heterogeneous time series data, the lack of
time-step-wise annotation of events in a flight, and the lack of scalable tools
to perform analysis over a large number of events. In this work, we propose a
precursor mining algorithm that identifies events in the multidimensional time
series that are correlated with the safety incident. Precursors are valuable to
systems health and safety monitoring and in explaining and forecasting safety
incidents. Current methods suffer from poor scalability to high dimensional
time series data and are inefficient in capturing temporal behavior. We propose
an approach by combining multiple-instance learning (MIL) and deep recurrent
neural networks (DRNN) to take advantage of MIL's ability to learn using weakly
supervised data and DRNN's ability to model temporal behavior. We describe the
algorithm, the data, the intuition behind taking a MIL approach, and a
comparative analysis of the proposed algorithm with baseline models. We also
discuss the application to a real-world aviation safety problem using data from
a commercial airline company and discuss the model's abilities and
shortcomings, with some final remarks about possible deployment directions
Discovering Blind Spots in Reinforcement Learning
Agents trained in simulation may make errors in the real world due to
mismatches between training and execution environments. These mistakes can be
dangerous and difficult to discover because the agent cannot predict them a
priori. We propose using oracle feedback to learn a predictive model of these
blind spots to reduce costly errors in real-world applications. We focus on
blind spots in reinforcement learning (RL) that occur due to incomplete state
representation: The agent does not have the appropriate features to represent
the true state of the world and thus cannot distinguish among numerous states.
We formalize the problem of discovering blind spots in RL as a noisy supervised
learning problem with class imbalance. We learn models to predict blind spots
in unseen regions of the state space by combining techniques for label
aggregation, calibration, and supervised learning. The models take into
consideration noise emerging from different forms of oracle feedback, including
demonstrations and corrections. We evaluate our approach on two domains and
show that it achieves higher predictive performance than baseline methods, and
that the learned model can be used to selectively query an oracle at execution
time to prevent errors. We also empirically analyze the biases of various
feedback types and how they influence the discovery of blind spots.Comment: To appear at AAMAS 201
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