Get the Most out of Your Sample: Optimal Unbiased Estimators using Partial Information

Random sampling is an essential tool in the processing and transmission of data. It is used to summarize data too large to store or manipulate and meet resource constraints on bandwidth or battery power. Estimators that are applied to the sample facilitate fast approximate processing of queries posed over the original data and the value of the sample hinges on the quality of these estimators. Our work targets data sets such as request and traffic logs and sensor measurements, where data is repeatedly collected over multiple {\em instances}: time periods, locations, or snapshots. We are interested in queries that span multiple instances, such as distinct counts and distance measures over selected records. These queries are used for applications ranging from planning to anomaly and change detection. Unbiased low-variance estimators are particularly effective as the relative error decreases with the number of selected record keys. The Horvitz-Thompson estimator, known to minimize variance for sampling with "all or nothing" outcomes (which reveals exacts value or no information on estimated quantity), is not optimal for multi-instance operations for which an outcome may provide partial information. We present a general principled methodology for the derivation of (Pareto) optimal unbiased estimators over sampled instances and aim to understand its potential. We demonstrate significant improvement in estimate accuracy of fundamental queries for common sampling schemes.Comment: This is a full version of a PODS 2011 pape

Leveraging Discarded Samples for Tighter Estimation of Multiple-Set Aggregates

Many datasets such as market basket data, text or hypertext documents, and sensor observations recorded in different locations or time periods, are modeled as a collection of sets over a ground set of keys. We are interested in basic aggregates such as the weight or selectivity of keys that satisfy some selection predicate defined over keys' attributes and membership in particular sets. This general formulation includes basic aggregates such as the Jaccard coefficient, Hamming distance, and association rules. On massive data sets, exact computation can be inefficient or infeasible. Sketches based on coordinated random samples are classic summaries that support approximate query processing. Queries are resolved by generating a sketch (sample) of the union of sets used in the predicate from the sketches these sets and then applying an estimator to this union-sketch. We derive novel tighter (unbiased) estimators that leverage sampled keys that are present in the union of applicable sketches but excluded from the union sketch. We establish analytically that our estimators dominate estimators applied to the union-sketch for {\em all queries and data sets}. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real data reveals that on typical applications we can expect a 25%-4 fold reduction in estimation error.Comment: 16 page

What you can do with Coordinated Samples

Sample coordination, where similar instances have similar samples, was proposed by statisticians four decades ago as a way to maximize overlap in repeated surveys. Coordinated sampling had been since used for summarizing massive data sets. The usefulness of a sampling scheme hinges on the scope and accuracy within which queries posed over the original data can be answered from the sample. We aim here to gain a fundamental understanding of the limits and potential of coordination. Our main result is a precise characterization, in terms of simple properties of the estimated function, of queries for which estimators with desirable properties exist. We consider unbiasedness, nonnegativity, finite variance, and bounded estimates. Since generally a single estimator can not be optimal (minimize variance simultaneously) for all data, we propose {\em variance competitiveness}, which means that the expectation of the square on any data is not too far from the minimum one possible for the data. Surprisingly perhaps, we show how to construct, for any function for which an unbiased nonnegative estimator exists, a variance competitive estimator.Comment: 4 figures, 21 pages, Extended Abstract appeared in RANDOM 201

Estimation for Monotone Sampling: Competitiveness and Customization

Random samples are lossy summaries which allow queries posed over the data to be approximated by applying an appropriate estimator to the sample. The effectiveness of sampling, however, hinges on estimator selection. The choice of estimators is subjected to global requirements, such as unbiasedness and range restrictions on the estimate value, and ideally, we seek estimators that are both efficient to derive and apply and {\em admissible} (not dominated, in terms of variance, by other estimators). Nevertheless, for a given data domain, sampling scheme, and query, there are many admissible estimators. We study the choice of admissible nonnegative and unbiased estimators for monotone sampling schemes. Monotone sampling schemes are implicit in many applications of massive data set analysis. Our main contribution is general derivations of admissible estimators with desirable properties. We present a construction of {\em order-optimal} estimators, which minimize variance according to {\em any} specified priorities over the data domain. Order-optimality allows us to customize the derivation to common patterns that we can learn or observe in the data. When we prioritize lower values (e.g., more similar data sets when estimating difference), we obtain the L$^*$ estimator, which is the unique monotone admissible estimator. We show that the L$^*$ estimator is 4-competitive and dominates the classic Horvitz-Thompson estimator. These properties make the L$^*$ estimator a natural default choice. We also present the U$^*$ estimator, which prioritizes large values (e.g., less similar data sets). Our estimator constructions are both easy to apply and possess desirable properties, allowing us to make the most from our summarized data.Comment: 28 pages; Improved write up, presentation in the context of the more general monotone sampling formulation (instead of coordinated sampling). Bounds on universal ratio removed to make the paper more focused, since it is mainly of theoretical interes

The Margins of Labour Cost Adjustment:Survey Evidence from European Firms

Firms have multiple options at the time of adjusting their wage bills. However, previous literature has mainly focused on base wages. We broaden the analysis beyond downward rigidity in base wages by investigating the use of other margins of labour cost adjustment at the firm level. Using data from a unique survey, we find that firms make frequent use of other, more flexible, components of compensation to adjust the cost of labour. Changes in bonuses and non-pay benefits are some of the potential margins firms use to reduce costs. We also show how the margins of adjustment chosen are affected by firm and worker characteristics.