Classification of Empirical Work on Sales Promotion: A Synthesis for Managerial Decision Making

Sales Promotion activities have gained strategic focus as markets are getting complex and competitive. Key managerial concerns in this area are budget allocation across elements of promotions as well as trade vis. consumer promotion, how to design individual sales promotion techniques and a calendar in face of competitive promotions, how to manage them and evaluate the short-term and long-term impact of the same. The objective of this paper is to present, through Meta-analysis, an overview of recent contributions appearing in scholastic journals relevant to the field of Sales Promotion, to classify them into different classificatory framework, report key findings, highlight the managerial implications and raise issues. The database used is the EBSCO host available on VSLLAN (Library)- Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad). The selection procedure consisted of peer-reviewed scholarly contributions for recent five year period. Out of more than 700 articles 64 article were selected which were analyzed for classifying them into • Perspective addressed: Manufacturer, retailer or consumer. • Market [country where the research was undertaken] • Type of promotion activity addressed - coupon, contest, price cut etc. • Management function addressed: planning, implementation, control [evaluation] • It was found that majority of the articles addressed manufacturers perspectives ; almost all studies were done in developed countries ; coupon as a consumer promotion tool was widely researched; and more than half of the articles were addressing planning related issues. Finally attempt has been made to synthesize managerial implications of the studies under broad topic areas for guidelines for managers.

Sales and Consumer Inventory

Temporary price reductions (sales) are quite common for many goods and usually result in an increase in the quantity sold. We explore whether the data support the hypothesis that these increases are, at least partly, due to dynamic consumer behavior: at low prices consumers stockpile for future consumption. This effect, if present, has broad implications for interpretation of demand estimates. We construct a dynamic model of consumer choice and use it to derive testable predictions. We test the implications of the model using two years of store-level scanner data and data on the purchases of a panel of households over the same time. The results support the existence of household stockpiling behavior.

Sales and Consumer Inventory

Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increase in the quantity sold. We explore whether the data support the hypothesis that these increases are, at least partly, due to dynamic consumer behavior: at low prices consumers stockpile for future consumption. This effect, if present, renders standard static demand estimates misleading, which has broad economic implications. We construct a dynamic model of consumer choice, use it to derive testable predictions and test these predictions using two years of scanner data on the purchasing behavior of a panel of households. The results support the existence of household stockpiling behavior and suggest that static demand estimates, which neglect dynamics, may overestimate price sensitiveness by up to a factor of 2 to 6.

A Nested Logit Model of Strategic Promotion

Retailers use sales "price promotions" for a number of potential reasons. There is relatively little research, however, on their strategic role among frequently consumed perishable products. Using a two-stage, nested logit model of retail equilibrium, we show that promotion will be most effective (ie. increase store-level sales) if products are highly differentiated, but stores are relatively similar. To test this hypothesis, we an oligopolistic model of promotion rivalry with category-level scanner data from the four largest supermarket retailers in a major U.S. metropolitan market. The results show that promotion has a greater impact on store share than product share, because the elasticity of substitution among stores is larger than the elasticity of substitution among products. Consequently, promotion has its greatest value in driving demand for differentiated products among stores that are similar. This finding supports the observed trend toward premium private label products being offered by supermarket retailers.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Intertemporal Pricing and Consumer Stockpiling

We study a dynamic pricing problem for a class of products with stable consumption patterns (e.g., household items, staple foods). Consumers may stock up the product at current prices for future consumption, but they incur inventory holding costs. We model this situation as a dynamic game over an infinite time horizon: in each period, the seller sets a price, and each consumer chooses how many units to buy. We develop a solution methodology based on rational expectations. By endowing each player with beliefs, we decouple the dynamic game into individual dynamic programs for each player. We solve for the rational expectations equilibrium, where all players make optimal dynamic decisions given correct beliefs about others\u27 behavior. In equilibrium, the seller may either charge a constant fixed price or offer periodic price promotions at predictable time intervals. We show that promotions are useful when frequent shoppers are willing to pay more for the product than are occasional shoppers. We also develop several model extensions to study the impact of consumer stockpiling on the seller\u27s inventory, production, and rationing strategies

A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects

For promotional planning and market segmentation it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on category and brand sales. In this paper we put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in short-run and long-run effects of promotions on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows us to disentangle the long-run effects from the short-run effects. In a second level of the model, we correlate the short-run and long-run elasticities with various brand-specific and category-specific characteristics. The model is applied to weekly sales of 100 different brands in 25 product categories. Our empirical results allow us to make generalizing statements on the dynamic effects of promotions in a statistically coherent way.vector autoregression;sales;hierarchical Bayes;short and long run effects

A Review of Theoretical Perspectives Applied to Sales Promotion and a New Perspective based on Mental Accounting Theory

The paper reviews theoretical perspective applied to the study of consumer response to promotions. These include adaptation level theory, assimilation contrast theory, attribution theory, prospect theory, transaction utility theory, the elaboration likelihood model and the attitude model. It finds that these theoretical approaches have had a single product focus in evaluating consumer response to promotions. It suggests an alternative theoretical perspective to examine consumer response to promotion from a multi product perspective. This perspective is based on mental accounting theory, a behaviorally based model of choice. It is used to examine the psychological processes involved in creating a positive cross product impact of a promotion (i.e. increase in sale of regular priced products during a promotion).

Consumer demand for variety: intertemporal effects of consumption, product switching and pricing policies

The concept of diminishing marginal utility is a cornerstone of economic theory. The consumption of a good typically creates satiation that diminishes the marginal utility of consuming more. Temporal satiation induces consumers to increase their stimulation level by seeking variety and therefore substitute towards other goods (substitutability across time) or other differentiated versions (products) of the good (substitutability across products). The literature on variety-seeking has developed along two strands, each focusing on only one type of substitutability. I specify a demand model that attempts to link these two strands of the literature. This issue is economically relevant because both types of substitutability are important for retailers and manufacturers in designing intertemporal price discrimination strategies. The consumer demand model specified allows consumption to have an enduring effect and the marginal utility of the different products to vary over consumption occasions. Consumers are assumed to make rational purchase decisions by taking into account, not only current and future satiation levels, but also prices and product choices. I then use the model to evaluate the demand implications of a major pricing policy change from hi-low pricing to an everyday low pricing strategy. I find evidence that consumption has a lasting effect on utility that induces substitutability across time and that the median consumer has a taste for variety in her product decisions. Consumers are found to be forward-looking with respect to the duration since the last purchase, to price expectations and product choices. Pricing policy simulations suggest that retailers may increase revenue by reducing the variance of prices, but that lowering the everyday level of prices may be unprofitable.Variety seeking; Intertemporal effects of consumption; product switching; Pricing; Dynamic demand;