Competition, Resilience, and Stability – Implications for Institutional Protection Schemes and Systemic Risk in the European Banking Union

The finalization of the European Banking Union (EBU) requires the completion of the third pillar, the system of depositor protection. However, whereas the two first pillars, while set-ting common standards, allow for elements of decentralization and institutional diversity, some authors claim that the third pillar is only established with a single and joint deposit guarantee scheme (DSG) for all countries in the Monetary Union. Limits to joint liability, or alternative concepts like the existing institutional protection schemes (IPS) in some member states, are seen as imperfections that can only be temporarily accepted for political reasons. According to this view, such elements of compromise and differentiation should be over-come. In our paper, we argue that neither the DGS nor the IPS is always efficient. Choosing an IPS is a response to a special way to organize banking business. It contains no element of regulato-ry arbitrage, as it represents a cost-efficient mean to protect depositors in decentralized banking networks marked by a larger number of regional banks and by a business model with a strong focus on long-term client relationships. Making decentralized banking and rela-tionship banking costlier through discriminating regulations (like the non-recognition of IPS) would thus have a negative impact on the common market, as it distorts the competition between different organizational concepts of banking

The changing international network of sovereign debt and financial institutions

We develop a theoretical and empirical framework for the connections between global financial and sovereign CDS markets. The transmission of shocks is shown to affect the systemic default probability of the international network. The network is found to be "robust but fragile", meaning that a shock can result in the propagation of crises. Between 2003 and 2013, the probability of default in the network in the face of potentially poor investment outcomes and/or sovereign bond haircuts changes sub-stantially. The results suggest that it is the interconnectedness of the financial and sovereign debt markets that provides increased protection against financial fragility

Risk Spillovers and Interconnectedness between Systemically Important Institutions

In this paper, we gauge the degree of interconnectedness and quantify the linkages between global and other systemically important institutions, and the global financial system. We document that the two groups and the financial system become more interconnected during the global financial crisis when linkages across groups grow. In contrast, during tranquil times linkages within groups prevail. Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) contribute most to system-wide distress but are also most exposed. There are more links coming from G-SIBs to other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) than the other way around, confirming the role of G-SIBs as major risk transmitters in the financial system. The two groups and the global financial system tend to co-vary for periods up to 60 days Prior to their official designation as G-SIBs or O-SIIs, the prevalent news sentiment about these institutions (we measure with a textual analysis) was negative. Importantly, the systemic importance and exposure of G-SIBs and O-SIIs is perceived differently by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA)

How systemic is Spain for Europe?

We use the forecast-error variance decompositions from a VAR with daily sovereign bonds spreads since 2000 to detail the linkages between EU sovereign bond markets and banks over time. Using new summary statistics on the matrix of bilateral linkages, we show Spain is systemic for Europe. Its fiscal problems expose it to trouble in sovereign bond markets of the other Club Med countries, whereas its internationally grown banking sector transmits domestic economic trouble to the rest of Europe. This spillover has substantially increased since the outbreak of the Fiscal Crisis in the Eurozone in May 2010. We develop a real-time indicator to follow the degree of spillover on a daily basi

Machine learning methods for systemic risk analysis in financial sectors.

Financial systemic risk is an important issue in economics and financial systems. Trying to detect and respond to systemic risk with growing amounts of data produced in financial markets and systems, a lot of researchers have increasingly employed machine learning methods. Machine learning methods study the mechanisms of outbreak and contagion of systemic risk in the financial network and improve the current regulation of the financial market and industry. In this paper, we survey existing researches and methodologies on assessment and measurement of financial systemic risk combined with machine learning technologies, including big data analysis, network analysis and sentiment analysis, etc. In addition, we identify future challenges, and suggest further research topics. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce current researches on financial systemic risk with machine learning methods and to propose directions for future work.This research has been partially supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (#U1811462, #71874023, #71771037, #71725001, and #71433001)

Systemic risk contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions across frequencies: The Australian experience

The Australian financial sector (AFS) is highly concentrated and interconnected. Besides, Australian banks' lending portfolios are dominated by residential mortgage loans, and 70% of insurance companies' revenues arise from non-policyholder sources. The AFS also performed relatively well during the global financial crisis (GFC). Given these distinctive features, in this paper, we examine the systemic risk contribution of Australian banks, insurance companies, and other financial services providers. We use a flexible copula-based delta conditional value-at-risk (ΔCoVaR) method across different frequencies. Further, we study the systemic risk determinants in a panel setting. We find that the major Australian banks are systemically more important than all other financial institutions. Systemic risk is typically higher after the GFC than in the pre-crisis period, despite the introduction of more stringent capital requirements. In addition, the short-term ΔCoVaR is significantly higher than the medium- and long-term ΔCoVaRs. Finally, institution-specific characteristics and market-wide variables explain the cross-sectional and time-series variation in systemic risk, and their explanatory power varies across frequencies.publishedVersio

Macro-Prudential Assessment of Colombian Financial Institutions’ Systemic Importance

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions’ size, connectedness and non-­substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network, and (iii) asset value of core financial services. Two systemic importance indexes are calculated based on two different aggregation methods for the three metrics: fuzzy logic and principal component analysis. The resulting indexes are complementary and provide a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution’s systemic importance in the Colombian case, in which the choice of metrics pursues the macro-­prudential perspective of financial stability. They both (i) agree on the skewed (i.e. inhomogeneous) nature of systemic importance and its approximate scale-­free distribution; (ii) on the preeminence of credit institutions as the main contributors to systemic importance, and (iii) on the non-­‐trivial importance of a few non-­‐banking institutions

Outsourcing of IT Services: Studies on Diffusion and New Theoretical Perspectives

abstract: Information technology (IT) outsourcing, including foreign or offshore outsourcing, has been steadily growing over the last two decades. This growth in IT outsourcing has led to the development of different hubs of services across nations, and has resulted in increased competition among service providers. Firms have been using IT outsourcing to not only leverage advanced technologies and services at lower costs, but also to maintain their competitive edge and grow. Furthermore, as prior studies have shown, there are systematic differences among industries in terms of the degree and impact of IT outsourcing. This dissertation uses a three-study approach to investigate issues related to IT outsourcing at the macro and micro levels, and provides different perspectives for understanding the issues associated with IT outsourcing at a firm and industry level. The first study evaluates the diffusion patterns of IT outsourcing across industries at aggregate level and within industries at a firm level. In addition, it analyzes the factors that influence the diffusion of IT outsourcing and tests models that help us understand the rate and patterns of diffusion at the industry level. This study establishes the presence of hierarchical contagion effects in the diffusion of IT outsourcing. The second study explores the role of location and proximity of industries to understand the diffusion patterns of IT outsourcing within clusters using the spatial analysis technique of space-time clustering. It establishes the presence of simultaneous space and time interactions at the global level in the diffusion of IT outsourcing. The third study examines the development of specialized hubs for IT outsourcing services in four developing economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). In this study, I adopt a theory-building approach involving the identification of explanatory anomalies, and propose a new hybrid theory called- knowledge network theory. The proposed theory suggests that the growth and development of the IT and related services sector is a result of close interactions among adaptive institutions. It is also based on new knowledge that is created, and which flows through a country's national diaspora of expatriate entrepreneurs, technologists and business leaders. In addition, relevant economic history and regional geography factors are important. This view diverges from the traditional view, wherein effective institutions are considered to be the key determinants of long-term economic growth.Dissertation/ThesisPh.D. Business Administration 201