3,651 research outputs found

    Spatial epidemiology of a highly transmissible disease in urban neighbourhoods: Using COVID-19 outbreaks in Toronto as a case study

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    The emergence of infectious diseases in an urban area involves a complex interaction between the socioecological processes in the neighbourhood and urbanization. As a result, such an urban environment can be the incubator of new epidemics and spread diseases more rapidly in densely populated areas than elsewhere. Most recently, the Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought unprecedented challenges around the world. Toronto, the capital city of Ontario, Canada, has been severely impacted by COVID-19. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns and the key drivers of such patterns is imperative for designing and implementing an effective public health program to control the spread of the pandemic. This dissertation was designed to contribute to the global research effort on the COVID-19 pandemic by conducting spatial epidemiological studies to enhance our understanding of the disease's epidemiology in a spatial context to guide enhancing the public health strategies in controlling the disease. Comprised of three original research manuscripts, this dissertation focuses on the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 at a neighbourhood scale in Toronto. Each manuscript makes scientific contributions and enhances our knowledge of how interactions between different socioecological processes in the neighbourhood and urbanization can influence spatial spread and patterns of COVID-19 in Toronto with the application of novel and advanced methodological approaches. The findings of the outcomes of the analyses are intended to contribute to the public health policy that informs neighbourhood-based disease intervention initiatives by the public health authorities, local government, and policymakers. The first manuscript analyzes the globally and locally variable socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19 incidence and examines how these relationships vary across different neighbourhoods. In the global model, lower levels of education and the percentage of immigrants were found to have a positive association with increased risk for COVID-19. This study provides the methodological framework for identifying the local variations in the association between risk for COVID-19 and socioeconomic factors in an urban environment by applying a local multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) modelling approach. The MGWR model is an improvement over the methods used in earlier studies of COVID-19 in identifying local variations of COVID-19 by incorporating a correction factor for the multiple testing problem in the geographically weighted regression models. The second manuscript quantifies the associations between COVID-19 cases and urban socioeconomic and land surface temperature (LST) at the neighbourhood scale in Toronto. Four spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial, temporal, and varying space-time interaction terms are compared. The results of this study identified the seasonal trends of COVID-19 risk, where the spatiotemporal trends show increasing, decreasing, or stable patterns, and identified area-specific spatial risk for targeted interventions. Educational level and high land surface temperature are shown to have a positive association with the risk for COVID-19. In this study, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite images were used to extract LST, and atmospheric corrections methods were applied to these images by adopting a land surface emissivity (LSE) model, which provided a high estimation accuracy. The methodological approach of this work will help researchers understand how to acquire long time-series data of LST at a spatial scale from satellite images, develop methodological approaches for atmospheric correction and create the environmental data with a high estimation accuracy to fit into modelling disease. Applying to policy, the findings of this study can inform the design and implementation of urban planning strategies and programs to control disease risks. The third manuscript developed a novel approach for visualization of the spread of infectious disease outbreaks by incorporating neighbourhood networks and the time-series data of the disease at the neighbourhood level. The findings of the model provide an understanding of the direction and magnitude of spatial risk for the outbreak and guide for the importance of early intervention in order to stop the spread of the outbreak. The manuscript also identified hotspots using incidence rate and disease persistence, the findings of which may inform public health planners to develop priority-based intervention plans in a resource constraint situation

    Natural and Technological Hazards in Urban Areas

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    Natural hazard events and technological accidents are separate causes of environmental impacts. Natural hazards are physical phenomena active in geological times, whereas technological hazards result from actions or facilities created by humans. In our time, combined natural and man-made hazards have been induced. Overpopulation and urban development in areas prone to natural hazards increase the impact of natural disasters worldwide. Additionally, urban areas are frequently characterized by intense industrial activity and rapid, poorly planned growth that threatens the environment and degrades the quality of life. Therefore, proper urban planning is crucial to minimize fatalities and reduce the environmental and economic impacts that accompany both natural and technological hazardous events

    Consistent Query Answering without Repairs in Tables with Nulls and Functional Dependencies

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    In this paper, we study consistent query answering in tables with nulls and functional dependencies. Given such a table T, we consider the set Tuples of all tuples that can be built up from constants appearing in T, and we use set theoretic semantics for tuples and functional dependencies to characterize the tuples of Tuples in two orthogonal ways: first as true or false tuples, and then as consistent or inconsistent tuples. Queries are issued against T and evaluated in Tuples. In this setting, we consider a query Q: select X from T where Condition over T and define its consistent answer to be the set of tuples x in Tuples such that: x is a true and consistent tuple with schema X and there exists a true super-tuple t of x in Tuples satisfying the condition. We show that, depending on the status that the super-tuple t has in Tuples, there are different types of consistent answer to Q. The main contributions of the paper are: (a) a novel approach to consistent query answering not using table repairs; (b) polynomial algorithms for computing the sets of true-false tuples and the sets of consistent-inconsistent tuples of Tuples; (c) polynomial algorithms in the size of T for computing different types of consistent answer for both conjunctive and disjunctive queries; and (d) a detailed discussion of the differences between our approach and the approaches using table repairs.Comment: 42 page

    Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion. Collected Works, Volume 5

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    This fifth volume on Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics, and is available in open-access. The collected contributions of this volume have either been published or presented after disseminating the fourth volume in 2015 in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals, or they are new. The contributions of each part of this volume are chronologically ordered. First Part of this book presents some theoretical advances on DSmT, dealing mainly with modified Proportional Conflict Redistribution Rules (PCR) of combination with degree of intersection, coarsening techniques, interval calculus for PCR thanks to set inversion via interval analysis (SIVIA), rough set classifiers, canonical decomposition of dichotomous belief functions, fast PCR fusion, fast inter-criteria analysis with PCR, and improved PCR5 and PCR6 rules preserving the (quasi-)neutrality of (quasi-)vacuous belief assignment in the fusion of sources of evidence with their Matlab codes. Because more applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the fourth book of DSmT in 2015, the second part of this volume is about selected applications of DSmT mainly in building change detection, object recognition, quality of data association in tracking, perception in robotics, risk assessment for torrent protection and multi-criteria decision-making, multi-modal image fusion, coarsening techniques, recommender system, levee characterization and assessment, human heading perception, trust assessment, robotics, biometrics, failure detection, GPS systems, inter-criteria analysis, group decision, human activity recognition, storm prediction, data association for autonomous vehicles, identification of maritime vessels, fusion of support vector machines (SVM), Silx-Furtif RUST code library for information fusion including PCR rules, and network for ship classification. Finally, the third part presents interesting contributions related to belief functions in general published or presented along the years since 2015. These contributions are related with decision-making under uncertainty, belief approximations, probability transformations, new distances between belief functions, non-classical multi-criteria decision-making problems with belief functions, generalization of Bayes theorem, image processing, data association, entropy and cross-entropy measures, fuzzy evidence numbers, negator of belief mass, human activity recognition, information fusion for breast cancer therapy, imbalanced data classification, and hybrid techniques mixing deep learning with belief functions as well

    Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Engineering Design and Health Prognostics: A Tutorial

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    On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Toward this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines

    Sociodemographic, nutritional and health status factors associated with adherence to Mediterranean diet in an agricultural Moroccan adult's population

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    Background. Numerous studies have demonstrated beneficial effects of adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) on many chronic diseases, including chronic kidney disease (CKD). Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the adherence of a rural population to the Mediterranean diet, to identify the sociodemographic and lifestyle determinants and to analyze the association between adherence to MD and CKD. Material and Methods. In a cross-sectional study, data on sociodemographic, lifestyle factors, clinical, biochemical parameters and diet were collected on a sample of 154 subjects. Adherence to MD was assessed according to a simplified MD score based on the daily frequency of intake of eight food groups (vegetables, legumes, fruits, cereal or potatoes, fish, red meat, dairy products and MUFA/SFA), using the sex specific sample medians as cut-offs. A value of 0 or 1 was assigned to consumption of each component according to its presumed detrimental or beneficial effect on health. Results. According to the simplified MD score, the study data show that high adherence (44.2%) to MD was characterized by intakes high in vegetables, fruits, fish, cereals, olive oil, and low in meat and moderate in dairy. Furthermore, several factors such as age, marital status, education level, and hypertension status were associated with the adherence to MD in the study population. The majority of subjects with CKD have poor adherence to the MD compared to non-CKD with a statistically insignificant difference. Conclusions. In Morocco, maintaining the traditional MD pattern play crucial role for public health. More research is needed in this area to precisely measure this association

    Innovation in Energy Security and Long-Term Energy Efficiency Ⅱ

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    The sustainable development of our planet depends on the use of energy. The increasing world population inevitably causes an increase in the demand for energy, which, on the one hand, threatens us with the potential to encounter a shortage of energy supply, and, on the other hand, causes the deterioration of the environment. Therefore, our task is to reduce this demand through different innovative solutions (i.e., both technological and social). Social marketing and economic policies can also play their role by affecting the behavior of households and companies and by causing behavioral change oriented to energy stewardship, with an overall switch to renewable energy resources. This reprint provides a platform for the exchange of a wide range of ideas, which, ultimately, would facilitate driving societies toward long-term energy efficiency

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Meets Deep Learning

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    This reprint focuses on the application of the combination of synthetic aperture radars and depth learning technology. It aims to further promote the development of SAR image intelligent interpretation technology. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is an important active microwave imaging sensor, whose all-day and all-weather working capacity give it an important place in the remote sensing community. Since the United States launched the first SAR satellite, SAR has received much attention in the remote sensing community, e.g., in geological exploration, topographic mapping, disaster forecast, and traffic monitoring. It is valuable and meaningful, therefore, to study SAR-based remote sensing applications. In recent years, deep learning represented by convolution neural networks has promoted significant progress in the computer vision community, e.g., in face recognition, the driverless field and Internet of things (IoT). Deep learning can enable computational models with multiple processing layers to learn data representations with multiple-level abstractions. This can greatly improve the performance of various applications. This reprint provides a platform for researchers to handle the above significant challenges and present their innovative and cutting-edge research results when applying deep learning to SAR in various manuscript types, e.g., articles, letters, reviews and technical reports
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