Efficient Optimization of Echo State Networks for Time Series Datasets

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are recurrent neural networks that only train their output layer, thereby precluding the need to backpropagate gradients through time, which leads to significant computational gains. Nevertheless, a common issue in ESNs is determining its hyperparameters, which are crucial in instantiating a well performing reservoir, but are often set manually or using heuristics. In this work we optimize the ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization which, given a limited budget of function evaluations, outperforms a grid search strategy. In the context of large volumes of time series data, such as light curves in the field of astronomy, we can further reduce the optimization cost of ESNs. In particular, we wish to avoid tuning hyperparameters per individual time series as this is costly; instead, we want to find ESNs with hyperparameters that perform well not just on individual time series but rather on groups of similar time series without sacrificing predictive performance significantly. This naturally leads to a notion of clusters, where each cluster is represented by an ESN tuned to model a group of time series of similar temporal behavior. We demonstrate this approach both on synthetic datasets and real world light curves from the MACHO survey. We show that our approach results in a significant reduction in the number of ESN models required to model a whole dataset, while retaining predictive performance for the series in each cluster

Reservoir Topology in Deep Echo State Networks

Deep Echo State Networks (DeepESNs) recently extended the applicability of Reservoir Computing (RC) methods towards the field of deep learning. In this paper we study the impact of constrained reservoir topologies in the architectural design of deep reservoirs, through numerical experiments on several RC benchmarks. The major outcome of our investigation is to show the remarkable effect, in terms of predictive performance gain, achieved by the synergy between a deep reservoir construction and a structured organization of the recurrent units in each layer. Our results also indicate that a particularly advantageous architectural setting is obtained in correspondence of DeepESNs where reservoir units are structured according to a permutation recurrent matrix.Comment: Preprint of the paper published in the proceedings of ICANN 201

Designing a NISQ reservoir with maximal memory capacity for volatility forecasting

Forecasting the CBOE volatility index (VIX) is a highly non-linear and memory-intensive task. In this paper, we use quantum reservoir computing to forecast the VIX using S&P500 (SPX) time-series. Our reservoir is a hybrid quantum-classical system executed on IBM's 53-qubit Rochester chip. We encode the SPX values in the rotation angles and linearly combine the average spin of the six-qubit register to predict the value of VIX at the next time step. Our results demonstrate a potential application of noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices to complex, real world applications

Reservoir Memory Machines as Neural Computers

Differentiable neural computers extend artificial neural networks with an explicit memory without interference, thus enabling the model to perform classic computation tasks such as graph traversal. However, such models are difficult to train, requiring long training times and large datasets. In this work, we achieve some of the computational capabilities of differentiable neural computers with a model that can be trained very efficiently, namely an echo state network with an explicit memory without interference. This extension enables echo state networks to recognize all regular languages, including those that contractive echo state networks provably can not recognize. Further, we demonstrate experimentally that our model performs comparably to its fully-trained deep version on several typical benchmark tasks for differentiable neural computers.Comment: In print at the special issue 'New Frontiers in Extremely Efficient Reservoir Computing' of IEEE TNNL

Deep Randomized Neural Networks

Randomized Neural Networks explore the behavior of neural systems where the majority of connections are fixed, either in a stochastic or a deterministic fashion. Typical examples of such systems consist of multi-layered neural network architectures where the connections to the hidden layer(s) are left untrained after initialization. Limiting the training algorithms to operate on a reduced set of weights inherently characterizes the class of Randomized Neural Networks with a number of intriguing features. Among them, the extreme efficiency of the resulting learning processes is undoubtedly a striking advantage with respect to fully trained architectures. Besides, despite the involved simplifications, randomized neural systems possess remarkable properties both in practice, achieving state-of-the-art results in multiple domains, and theoretically, allowing to analyze intrinsic properties of neural architectures (e.g. before training of the hidden layers' connections). In recent years, the study of Randomized Neural Networks has been extended towards deep architectures, opening new research directions to the design of effective yet extremely efficient deep learning models in vectorial as well as in more complex data domains. This chapter surveys all the major aspects regarding the design and analysis of Randomized Neural Networks, and some of the key results with respect to their approximation capabilities. In particular, we first introduce the fundamentals of randomized neural models in the context of feed-forward networks (i.e., Random Vector Functional Link and equivalent models) and convolutional filters, before moving to the case of recurrent systems (i.e., Reservoir Computing networks). For both, we focus specifically on recent results in the domain of deep randomized systems, and (for recurrent models) their application to structured domains