Causal Compositional Models in Valuation-Based Systems with Examples in Specific Theories

We show that Pearl’s causal networks can be described using causal compositional models (CCMs) in the valuationbased systems (VBS) framework. One major advantage of using the VBS framework is that as VBS is a generalization of several uncertainty theories (e.g., probability theory, a version of possibility theory where combination is the product t-norm, Spohn’s epistemic belief theory, and Dempster-Shafer belief function theory), CCMs, initially described in probability theory, are now described in all uncertainty calculi that fit in the VBS framework. We describe conditioning and interventions in CCMs. Another advantage of using CCMs in the VBS framework is that both conditioning and intervention can be easily described in an elegant and unifying algebraic way for the same CCM without having to do any graphical manipulations of the causal network. We describe how conditioning and intervention can be computed for a simple example with a hidden (unobservable) variable. Also, we illustrate the algebraic results using numerical examples in some of the specific uncertainty calculi mentioned above

Compositional Models in Valuation-Based Systems

This is the author final draft. Copyright 2014 ElsevierCompositional models were initially described for discrete probability theory, and later extended for possibility theory and for belief functions in Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Valuation-based system (VBS) is an unifying theoretical framework generalizing some of the well known and frequently used uncertainty calculi. This generalization enables us to not only highlight the most important theoretical properties necessary for efficient inference (analogous to Bayesian inference in the framework of Bayesian network), but also to design efficient computational procedures. Some of the specific calculi covered by VBS are probability theory, a version of possibility theory where combination is the product t-norm, Spohn’s epistemic belief theory, and D–S belief function theory. In this paper, we describe compositional models in the general framework of VBS using the semantics of no-double counting, which is central to the VBS framework. Also, we show that conditioning can be expressed using the composition operator. We define a special case of compositional models called decomposable models, again in the VBS framework, and demonstrate that for the class of decomposable compositional models, conditioning can be done using local computation. As all results are obtained for the VBS framework, they hold in all calculi that fit in the VBS framework. For the D–S theory of belief functions, the compositional model defined here differs from the one studied by Jiroušek, Vejnarová, and Daniel. The latter model can also be described in the VBS framework, but with a combination operator that is different from Dempster’s rule of combination. For the version of possibility theory in which combination is the product t-norm, the compositional model defined here reduces to the one studied by Vejnarová