Creating Full Individual-level Location Timelines from Sparse Social Media Data

In many domain applications, a continuous timeline of human locations is critical; for example for understanding possible locations where a disease may spread, or the flow of traffic. While data sources such as GPS trackers or Call Data Records are temporally-rich, they are expensive, often not publicly available or garnered only in select locations, restricting their wide use. Conversely, geo-located social media data are publicly and freely available, but present challenges especially for full timeline inference due to their sparse nature. We propose a stochastic framework, Intermediate Location Computing (ILC) which uses prior knowledge about human mobility patterns to predict every missing location from an individual's social media timeline. We compare ILC with a state-of-the-art RNN baseline as well as methods that are optimized for next-location prediction only. For three major cities, ILC predicts the top 1 location for all missing locations in a timeline, at 1 and 2-hour resolution, with up to 77.2% accuracy (up to 6% better accuracy than all compared methods). Specifically, ILC also outperforms the RNN in settings of low data; both cases of very small number of users (under 50), as well as settings with more users, but with sparser timelines. In general, the RNN model needs a higher number of users to achieve the same performance as ILC. Overall, this work illustrates the tradeoff between prior knowledge of heuristics and more data, for an important societal problem of filling in entire timelines using freely available, but sparse social media data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

mfEGRA: Multifidelity Efficient Global Reliability Analysis through Active Learning for Failure Boundary Location

This paper develops mfEGRA, a multifidelity active learning method using data-driven adaptively refined surrogates for failure boundary location in reliability analysis. This work addresses the issue of prohibitive cost of reliability analysis using Monte Carlo sampling for expensive-to-evaluate high-fidelity models by using cheaper-to-evaluate approximations of the high-fidelity model. The method builds on the Efficient Global Reliability Analysis (EGRA) method, which is a surrogate-based method that uses adaptive sampling for refining Gaussian process surrogates for failure boundary location using a single-fidelity model. Our method introduces a two-stage adaptive sampling criterion that uses a multifidelity Gaussian process surrogate to leverage multiple information sources with different fidelities. The method combines expected feasibility criterion from EGRA with one-step lookahead information gain to refine the surrogate around the failure boundary. The computational savings from mfEGRA depends on the discrepancy between the different models, and the relative cost of evaluating the different models as compared to the high-fidelity model. We show that accurate estimation of reliability using mfEGRA leads to computational savings of $\sim$46% for an analytic multimodal test problem and 24% for a three-dimensional acoustic horn problem, when compared to single-fidelity EGRA. We also show the effect of using a priori drawn Monte Carlo samples in the implementation for the acoustic horn problem, where mfEGRA leads to computational savings of 45% for the three-dimensional case and 48% for a rarer event four-dimensional case as compared to single-fidelity EGRA

Predicting Social Links for New Users across Aligned Heterogeneous Social Networks

Online social networks have gained great success in recent years and many of them involve multiple kinds of nodes and complex relationships. Among these relationships, social links among users are of great importance. Many existing link prediction methods focus on predicting social links that will appear in the future among all users based upon a snapshot of the social network. In real-world social networks, many new users are joining in the service every day. Predicting links for new users are more important. Different from conventional link prediction problems, link prediction for new users are more challenging due to the following reasons: (1) differences in information distributions between new users and the existing active users (i.e., old users); (2) lack of information from the new users in the network. We propose a link prediction method called SCAN-PS (Supervised Cross Aligned Networks link prediction with Personalized Sampling), to solve the link prediction problem for new users with information transferred from both the existing active users in the target network and other source networks through aligned accounts. We proposed a within-target-network personalized sampling method to process the existing active users' information in order to accommodate the differences in information distributions before the intra-network knowledge transfer. SCAN-PS can also exploit information in other source networks, where the user accounts are aligned with the target network. In this way, SCAN-PS could solve the cold start problem when information of these new users is total absent in the target network.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 4 table

Context-aware Sequential Recommendation

Since sequential information plays an important role in modeling user behaviors, various sequential recommendation methods have been proposed. Methods based on Markov assumption are widely-used, but independently combine several most recent components. Recently, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) based methods have been successfully applied in several sequential modeling tasks. However, for real-world applications, these methods have difficulty in modeling the contextual information, which has been proved to be very important for behavior modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel model, named Context-Aware Recurrent Neural Networks (CA-RNN). Instead of using the constant input matrix and transition matrix in conventional RNN models, CA-RNN employs adaptive context-specific input matrices and adaptive context-specific transition matrices. The adaptive context-specific input matrices capture external situations where user behaviors happen, such as time, location, weather and so on. And the adaptive context-specific transition matrices capture how lengths of time intervals between adjacent behaviors in historical sequences affect the transition of global sequential features. Experimental results show that the proposed CA-RNN model yields significant improvements over state-of-the-art sequential recommendation methods and context-aware recommendation methods on two public datasets, i.e., the Taobao dataset and the Movielens-1M dataset.Comment: IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM) 2016, to apea