Characterizing Optimal Adword Auctions

We present a number of models for the adword auctions used for pricing advertising slots on search engines such as Google, Yahoo! etc. We begin with a general problem formulation which allows the privately known valuation per click to be a function of both the identity of the advertiser and the slot. We present a compact characterization of the set of all deterministic incentive compatible direct mechanisms for this model. This new characterization allows us to conclude that there are incentive compatible mechanisms for this auction with a multi-dimensional type-space that are {\em not} affine maximizers. Next, we discuss two interesting special cases: slot independent valuation and slot independent valuation up to a privately known slot and zero thereafter. For both of these special cases, we characterize revenue maximizing and efficiency maximizing mechanisms and show that these mechanisms can be computed with a worst case computational complexity $O(n^2m^2)$ and $O(n^2m^3)$ respectively, where $n$ is number of bidders and $m$ is number of slots. Next, we characterize optimal rank based allocation rules and propose a new mechanism that we call the customized rank based allocation. We report the results of a numerical study that compare the revenue and efficiency of the proposed mechanisms. The numerical results suggest that customized rank-based allocation rule is significantly superior to the rank-based allocation rules.Comment: 29 pages, work was presented at a) Second Workshop on Sponsored Search Auctions, Ann Arbor, MI b) INFORMS Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh c) Decision Sciences Seminar, Fuqua School of Business, Duke Universit

Econometrics for Learning Agents

The main goal of this paper is to develop a theory of inference of player valuations from observed data in the generalized second price auction without relying on the Nash equilibrium assumption. Existing work in Economics on inferring agent values from data relies on the assumption that all participant strategies are best responses of the observed play of other players, i.e. they constitute a Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show how to perform inference relying on a weaker assumption instead: assuming that players are using some form of no-regret learning. Learning outcomes emerged in recent years as an attractive alternative to Nash equilibrium in analyzing game outcomes, modeling players who haven't reached a stable equilibrium, but rather use algorithmic learning, aiming to learn the best way to play from previous observations. In this paper we show how to infer values of players who use algorithmic learning strategies. Such inference is an important first step before we move to testing any learning theoretic behavioral model on auction data. We apply our techniques to a dataset from Microsoft's sponsored search ad auction system

Recombinant Estimation for Normal-Form Games, with Applications to Auctions and Bargaining

In empirical analysis of economic games, researchers frequently wish to estimate quantities describing group outcomes, such as the expected revenue in an auction or the mean allocative efficiency in a market experiment. For such applications, we propose an improved statistical estimation technique called "recombinant estimation." The technique takes observations of the complete strategy of each player and recombines them to compute all the possible group outcomes which could have resulted from different matches of players. We calculate the improvement in efficiency of the recombinant estimator relative to the standard estimator, and show how to estimate standard errors for the recombinant estimator for use in hypothesis testing. We present an application to a two-player sealed-bid auction and a two-player ultimatum bargaining game. In these applications, the improved efficiency of our estimator is equivalent to an increase of between 40% and 200% in the sample size. We discuss how to design game experiments in order to be able to take full advantage of recombinant estimation. Finally, we discuss practical computational issues, showing how one can avoid combinatorial explosions of computing time while still yielding significantly improved efficiency of estimation.

Revisiting minimum profit conditions in uniform price day-ahead electricity auctions

We examine the problem of clearing day-ahead electricity market auctions where each bidder, whether a producer or consumer, can specify a minimum profit or maximum payment condition constraining the acceptance of a set of bid curves spanning multiple time periods in locations connected through a transmission network with linear constraints. Such types of conditions are for example considered in the Spanish and Portuguese day-ahead markets. This helps describing the recovery of start-up costs of a power plant, or analogously for a large consumer, utility reduced by a constant term. A new market model is proposed with a corresponding MILP formulation for uniform locational price day-ahead auctions, handling bids with a minimum profit or maximum payment condition in a uniform and computationally-efficient way. An exact decomposition procedure with sparse strengthened Benders cuts derived from the MILP formulation is also proposed. The MILP formulation and the decomposition procedure are similar to computationally-efficient approaches previously proposed to handle so-called block bids according to European market rules, though the clearing conditions could appear different at first sight. Both solving approaches are also valid to deal with both kinds of bids simultaneously, as block bids with a minimum acceptance ratio, generalizing fully indivisible block bids, are but a special case of the MP bids introduced here. We argue in favour of the MP bids by comparing them to previous models for minimum profit conditions proposed in the academic literature, and to the model for minimum income conditions used by the Spanish power exchange OMIE

Pricing Ad Slots with Consecutive Multi-unit Demand

We consider the optimal pricing problem for a model of the rich media advertisement market, as well as other related applications. In this market, there are multiple buyers (advertisers), and items (slots) that are arranged in a line such as a banner on a website. Each buyer desires a particular number of {\em consecutive} slots and has a per-unit-quality value $v_i$ (dependent on the ad only) while each slot $j$ has a quality $q_j$ (dependent on the position only such as click-through rate in position auctions). Hence, the valuation of the buyer $i$ for item $j$ is $v_iq_j$. We want to decide the allocations and the prices in order to maximize the total revenue of the market maker. A key difference from the traditional position auction is the advertiser's requirement of a fixed number of consecutive slots. Consecutive slots may be needed for a large size rich media ad. We study three major pricing mechanisms, the Bayesian pricing model, the maximum revenue market equilibrium model and an envy-free solution model. Under the Bayesian model, we design a polynomial time computable truthful mechanism which is optimum in revenue. For the market equilibrium paradigm, we find a polynomial time algorithm to obtain the maximum revenue market equilibrium solution. In envy-free settings, an optimal solution is presented when the buyers have the same demand for the number of consecutive slots. We conduct a simulation that compares the revenues from the above schemes and gives convincing results.Comment: 27page