Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

A methodology for the quantification of doctrine and materiel approaches in a capability-based assessment

Due to the complexities of modern military operations and the technologies employed on today's military systems, acquisition costs and development times are becoming increasingly large. Meanwhile, the transformation of the global security environment is driving the U.S. military's own transformation. In order to meet the required capabilities of the next generation without buying prohibitively costly new systems, it is necessary for the military to evolve across the spectrum of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF). However, the methods for analyzing DOTMLPF approaches within the early acquisition phase of a capability-based assessment (CBA) are not as well established as the traditional technology design techniques. This makes it difficult for decision makers to decide if investments should be made in materiel or non-materiel solutions. This research develops an agent-based constructive simulation to quantitatively assess doctrine alongside materiel approaches. Additionally, life-cycle cost techniques are provided to enable a cost-effectiveness trade. These techniques are wrapped together in a decision-making environment that brings crucial information forward so informed and appropriate acquisition choices can be made. The methodology is tested on a future unmanned aerial vehicle design problem. Through the implementation of this quantitative methodology on the proof-of-concept study, it is shown that doctrinal changes including fleet composition, asset allocation, and patrol pattern were capable of dramatic improvements in system effectiveness at a much lower cost than the incorporation of candidate technologies. Additionally, this methodology was able to quantify the precise nature of strong doctrine-doctrine and doctrine-technology interactions which have been observed only qualitatively throughout military history. This dissertation outlines the methodology and demonstrates how potential approaches to capability-gaps can be identified with respect to effectiveness, cost, and time. When implemented, this methodology offers the opportunity to achieve system capabilities in a new way, improve the design of acquisition programs, and field the right combination of ways and means to address future challenges to national security.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Bishop, Carlee; Committee Member: Brown, David; Committee Member: Costello, Mark; Committee Member: Schrage, Danie

Impure Public Goods and Technological Interdependencies

Impure public goods represent an important group of goods. Almost every public good exerts not only effects which are public to all but also effects which are private to the producer of this good. What is often omitted in the analysis of impure public goods is the fact that – regularly – these private effects can also be generated independently of the public good. In our analysis we focus on the effects alternative technologies – independently generating the private effects of the public good – may have on the provision of impure public goods. After the investigation in an analytical impure public good model, we numerically simulate the effects of alternative technologies in a parameterized model for climate policy in Germany.Impure public goods, Climate policy, Rationing

A technique for determining viable military logistics support alternatives

A look at today's US military will see them operating much beyond the scope of protecting and defending the United States. These operations now consist of, but are not limited to humanitarian aid, disaster relief, and conflict resolution. This broad spectrum of operational environments has necessitated a transformation of the individual military services into a hybrid force that can leverage the inherent and emerging capabilities from the strengths of those under the umbrella of the Department of Defense (DOD), this concept has been coined Joint Operations. Supporting Joint Operations requires a new approach to determining a viable military logistics support system. The logistics architecture for these operations has to accommodate scale, time, varied mission objectives, and imperfect information. Compounding the problem is the human in the loop (HITL) decision maker (DM) who is a necessary component for quickly assessing and planning logistics support activities. Past outcomes are not necessarily good indicators of future results, but they can provide a reasonable starting point for planning and prediction of specific needs for future requirements. Adequately forecasting the necessary logistical support structure and commodities needed for any resource intensive environment has progressed well beyond stable demand assumptions to one in which dynamic and nonlinear environments can be captured with some degree of fidelity and accuracy. While these advances are important, a holistic approach that allows exploration of the operational environment or design space does not exist to guide the military logistician in a methodical way to support military forecasting activities. To bridge this capability gap, a method called A Technique for Logistics Architecture Selection (ATLAS) has been developed. This thesis describes and applies the ATLAS method to a notional military scenario that involves the Navy concept of Seabasing and the Marine Corps concept of Distributed Operations applied to a platoon sized element. This work uses modeling and simulation to incorporate expert opinion and knowledge of military operations, dynamic reasoning methods, and certainty analysis to create a decisions support system (DSS) that can be used to provide the DM an enhanced view of the logistics environment and variables that impact specific measures of effectiveness.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Fahringer, Philip; Committee Member: Nixon, Janel; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel; Committee Member: Soban, Danielle; Committee Member: Vachtsevanos, Georg

Impure Public Goods and Technological Interdependencies

Impure public goods represent an important group of goods. Almost every public good exerts not only effects which are public to all but also effects which are private to the producer of this good. What is often omitted in the analysis of impure public goods is the fact that – regularly – these private effects can also be generated independently of the public good. In our analysis we focus on the effects alternative technologies – independently generating the private effects of the public good – may have on the provision of impure public goods. After the investigation in an analytical impure public good model, we numerically simulate the effects of alternative technologies in a parameterized model for climate policy in Germany. --impure public goods,climate policy,rationing

WESTT (Workload, Error, Situational Awareness, Time and Teamwork): An analytical prototyping system for command and control

Modern developments in the use of information technology within command and control allow unprecedented scope for flexibility in the way teams deal with tasks. These developments, together with the increased recognition of the importance of knowledge management within teams present difficulties for the analyst in terms of evaluating the impacts of changes to task composition or team membership. In this paper an approach to this problem is presented that represents team behaviour in terms of three linked networks (representing task, social network structure and knowledge) within the integrative WESTT software tool. In addition, by automating analyses of workload and error based on the same data that generate the networks, WESTT allows the user to engage in the process of rapid and iterative “analytical prototyping”. For purposes of illustration an example of the use of this technique with regard to a simple tactical vignette is presented

Modeling Network Centric Warfare (NCW) With the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS)

Significant technological advances over the past few decades have fueled the continual and rapid development of an information-based world. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) has become the buzzword of the young millennium within the Department of Defense (DoD) and is quickly becoming a popularly shared vision and rallying cry for force transformation among United States military leaders. An essential element in fully implementing this network-centric way of thinking is to develop useful measures to help gauge the effectiveness and efficiency of both our military networks and our strategic NCW doctrine. The goal of this research is first to provide a comprehensive summary of the key literary works that have forged a foundational basis for defining NCW. Second, this work will utilize a System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) combat model, which represents a Kosovo-like engagement (provided by the Space and Missile Center), to serve as a tool in exploring the use of NCW metrics in military worth analysis. Third and last, this effort selects measures for the physical, information, and cognitive domains of NCW and analyzes the outputs from the Kosovo scenario that are pertinent to each domain in order to assess the usefulness of each metric. In the final analysis, the average target detection distance outputs and average communication channel message loading metrics chosen for the physical and information domains yielded mixed results and levels of utility, while the highly aggregated metric of target kills served as a useful, and yet rough, final metric for the cognitive domain

AN OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS ON SMALL ARMS SHOOTING PRECISION IN CLOSE QUARTERS BATTLE

This thesis studies the impact of a rifleman’s shooting accuracy on operational effectiveness in close-quarters combat. The goal is to determine how improvements in shooting accuracy may reduce casualties, increase the probability of mission success, and potentially reduce manpower or ammunition (soldier’s load) requirements. Analysis was done using an agent-based simulation of a scenario based on a coalition company (blue force) assault on a platoon of insurgents (red force) defending an urban area. A full factorial design was used to generate data, the analysis of which supports the research goal. A sequential analysis campaign was devised, involving a base case analysis followed by three sets of experiments. Each experiment set was designed to inform subsequent experiments to funnel the huge combat possibilities into valuable insights. Insights from previous experiment sets guided designing the follow-on experiments to focus the desired scenario and reduce the design space. This process decreased the design space from more than 26 billion to 250,000 simulated battles. The findings from this thesis establish clear expectations and requirements for the design of next generation force structure, individual marksmanship training, shooting accuracy requirements of unmanned systems, and artificial intelligence-enabled weapons equipped to aid shooting accuracy improvements.Captain, Singapore ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

SCALING REINFORCEMENT LEARNING THROUGH FEUDAL MULTI-AGENT HIERARCHY

Militaries conduct wargames for training, planning, and research purposes. Artificial intelligence (AI) can improve military wargaming by reducing costs, speeding up the decision-making process, and offering new insights. Previous researchers explored using reinforcement learning (RL) for wargaming based on the successful use of RL for other human competitive games. While previous research has demonstrated that an RL agent can generate combat behavior, those experiments have been limited to small-scale wargames. This thesis investigates the feasibility and acceptability of -scaling hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) to support integrating AI into large military wargames. Additionally, this thesis also investigates potential complications that arise when replacing the opposing force with an intelligent agent by exploring the ways in which an intelligent agent can cause a wargame to fail. The resources required to train a feudal multi-agent hierarchy (FMH) and a standard RL agent and their effectiveness are compared in increasingly complicated wargames. While FMH fails to demonstrate the performance required for large wargames, it offers insight for future HRL research. Finally, the Department of Defense verification, validation, and accreditation process is proposed as a method to ensure that any future AI application applied to wargames are suitable.Lieutenant Colonel, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Multi-Agent Simulation of Human Behavior in Naval Air Defense

This paper appeared in the Naval Engineers' Journal, 116 (4), Fall 2004, 53-64.The AEGIS Cruiser Air-Defense Simulation is a program that models the operations of a Combat Information Center team performing air defense for a U.S. Navy battle group. It uses multi-agent system technology and is implemented in Java. Conceived primarily to assist personnel in air-defense training and doctrine formulation, the simulation provides insight into the factors (skills, experience, fatigue, aircraft numbers, weather, etc.) that influence performance, especially under intense or stressful situations, and the task bottlenecks. It simulates air contacts (aircraft and missiles) as well as the actions and mental processes of the watchstanders. All simulated events are logged, to permit performance analysis and reconstruction for post-scenario training. Validation of the simulation was done with the help of expert practitioners of air defense at the AEGIS Training & Readiness Center (ATRC), San Diego, California, USA.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited