Stock market co-movement in the Caribbean

This paper investigates co-movement in five Caribbean stock markets (Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, The Bahamas and Guyana) using common factor analysis. The common factors are obtained using principal component analysis and therefore account for the maximum portion of the variance present in the stock exchanges investigated. We break our analysis down and test for co-movement in different periods so as to ascertain any changes that have taken place from one period to the next. In particular we examine 10-year, 5-year and 3-year periods. We also specify a vector autoregression model and test for co-movement between the five markets during the sample period through impulse response functions. Both of our tests fail to find any evidence of co-movement between the exchanges over the entire sample period. However, we find evidence of periodic co-movement, particularly between exchanges in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages

We investigate how the exchange rate regime influences economic linkages across countries. We divide the exchange rate regime into three classifications: currency union, peg and floating exchange rates. Unlike most studies solely focusing on the relationship between anchor and client countries, the exchange rate regime between any two countries is inferred based on their relationship to the common anchor currency. Then we empirically explore how the various exchange rate regimes impact on bilateral trade, output co-movement and financial integration. Financial integration is measured by the degree of risk sharing reflected in consumption co-movement relative to output co-movement. We find that, while currency union has the greatest effect, the peg regime also significantly boosts trade. We also find that, while the peg regime contributes to both output and consumption co-movements, the currency union strengthens only consumption co-movement and possibly lowers output co-movement. These findings are interpreted that the currency union, the strictest form of pegged regimes, leads to higher industry specialization and better risk sharing opportunities than the less strict peg regime.Exchage Rate Regime, Economic Linkage, Trade, Output Co- movement, Cosumption Co-movement, Risk Sharing

Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area. Synchronicity and co-movement for the region as a whole do not exhibit a clear upward tendency. Although several countries saw the similarity of their business cycle vis-`a-vis the euro area reference cycle increase, national business cycles remain fairly diverse. Changes in business cycle amplitudes cause most of the observed change in cycle co-movement.business cycles, synchronisation, concordance, co-movement, cycle amplitudes, euro area

The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices

This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current, or expected future values of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates. These results are a rejection of the standard competitive model of commodity price formation with storage.

Excess co-movement in asset prices: The case of South Africa

The paper investigates excess co-movement in asset prices in South Africa between 1995 and 2005 using the definition of excess comovement as correlation between two asset prices beyond what could be explained by key economic fundamentals. The results of the study suggest that there is excess co-movement between returns on equities and bonds in South Africa. The findings suggest that there are considerable noise traders on the financial market in South Africa. The result of this behaviour would be the tendency for the equity and bond prices to move together more than would be predicted by their shared fundamentals. These results are consistent with the possibility that a fad or crowd psychology plays a role in the volatility on the market for the two asset classes.Excess co-movement; Asset prices; equity market; bond market; South Africa

Volatility Co-movement of ASEAN-5 Equity Markets

Purpose – Economic cross-linkages and the increased co-movement of asset prices across international markets are important outcomes as the result of globalization. Hereby, the nature of international stock markets and the extent to which the 1997-1998 East Asian turmoil had affected the market relationship of five countries of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) remain as probing questions. Design/methodology/approach – We resort to the standard time series econometrics analysis. These include the unit root, cointegration and the Granger causality tests. Hereby, further empirical analyzes is conducted upon two sub-periods of interest: (1) pre-crisis period from 1987:1 to 1997:7 and (2) post-crisis period from 1997:8 to 2007:12. This is to allow for possible transitional motion leading to and departing from the crisis. Findings – Using an array of econometrics analysis upon the stock price volatility series, we found partial market integration for the pre-crisis; whereas in the post-crisis, complete integration prevails. Hence, the financial meltdown in 1997 is said to be a contagion led crisis as markets integrate well off after the crisis than prior to it. Nonetheless, long run portfolio asset diversification benefits across the ASEAN-5 basin are reduced as markets are integrated in both the pre- and post-crisis. Originality/value – The paper is of value by showing to uncover the issue of interdependence of stock market integration focusing on the ASEAN-5 economies. The formation of the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA- 1998) parallel with the establishment of a developed ASEAN Index-Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) regional index is viable to foster deeper regional market convergence.ASEAN-5, Portfolio Diversification, Volatility co-movement

Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India.

This paper examines the decoupling hypothesis for India. We analyse business cycle synchronisation between India and a set of industrial economies, particularly the United States, over the period 1992 to 2008. The evidence suggests that the Indian business cycle exhibits increasing co-movement with business cycles in industrial economies over this period. Indian business cycle synchronisation is stronger with industrial countries as a whole as opposed to the co-movement found with the US.

Inventories and the Propagation of Sectoral Shocks

This paper studies the dynamic properties of an imperfectly competitive economy with inventory holdings. In particular, we focus on the serial correlation in aggregate output and employment produced by the holding of inventories in one sector of the economy and the co-movement between sectors of an economy over the cycle resulting from demand linkages. This model is then contrasted with a simple, competitive real business cycle model with inventories. We find that the predictions of these models with regards to the co-movement of employment may differ. Based on this, we present empirical evidence on the co-movement of employment over the business cycle which is consistent with the predictions of the model of imperfect competition with inventory holdings and demand linkages.

The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices

The authors examine the price linkages among polyester (the dominant chemical fiber), cotton (the dominant natural fiber), and crude oil (the dominant energy commodity), based on monthly data between 1980 and 2002. The modeling framework incorporates several aspects of the unit root econometrics literature. They find that: a) There is strong co-movement between cotton and polyester prices, well above the co-movement observed between these two prices and prices of other primary commodities. b) Crude oil prices have a stronger effect on polyester prices compared with cotton prices. c) Price shocks originating in the polyester market are transmitted at much higher speed to the cotton market than vice-versa.Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems

Correlation, price discovery and co-movement of ABS and equity

Asset-backed securitization (ABS) has become a viable and increasingly attractive risk management and refinancing method either as a standalone form of structured finance or as securitized debt in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). However, the absence of industry standardization has prevented rising investment demand from translating into market liquidity comparable to traditional fixed income instruments, in all but a few selected market segments. Particularly low financial transparency and complex security designs inhibits profound analysis of secondary market pricing and how it relates to established forms of external finance. This paper represents the first attempt to measure the intertemporal, bivariate causal relationship between matched price series of equity and ABS issued by the same entity. In a two-dimensional linear system of simultaneous equations we investigate the short-term dynamics and long-term consistency of daily secondary market data from the U.K. Sterling ABS/MBS market and exchange traded shares between 1998 and 2004 with and without the presence of cointegration. Our causality framework delivers compelling empirical support for a strong co-movement between matched price series of ABS-equity pairs, where ABS markets seem to contribute more to price discovery over the long run. Controlling for cointegration, risk-free interest and average market risk of corporate debt hardly alters our results. However, once we qualify the magnitude and direction of price discovery on various security characteristics, such as the ABS asset class, we find that ABS-equity pairs with large-scale CMBS/RMBS and credit card/student loan ABS reveal stronger lead-lag relationships and joint price dynamics than whole business ABS. JEL Classifications: G10, G12, G2