1,897,207 research outputs found

    Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

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    This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.Comment: submitted as contribution to Conceptual Foundations of ClimateModeling, Winsberg, E. and Lloyd, E., eds., The University of Chicago Pres

    The Semiotics of Global Warming: Combating Semiotic Corrruption

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    The central focus of this paper is the disjunction between the findings of climate science in revealing the threat of global warming and the failure to act appropriately to these warnings. The development of climate science can be illuminated through the perspective provided by Peircian semiotics, but efforts to account for its success as a science and its failure to convince people to act accordingly indicate the need to supplement Peirce’s ideas. The more significant gaps, it is argued, call for the integration of major new ideas. It will be argued that Peirce should be viewed as a Schellingian philosopher, and it will then be shown how this facilitates integration into his philosophy of concepts developed by other philosophers and theorists within this tradition. In particular, Bourdieu’s concepts of the ‘habitus’ and ‘field’ will be integrated with Peirce’s semiotics and used to analyse the achievements and failures of climate science. It will be suggested that the resulting synthesis can augment Peirce’s evolutionary cosmology and so provide a better basis for comprehending and responding to the situation within which we find ourselves

    Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

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    Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

    Reply to comment by K. M. Lau and K. M. Kim on '"Elevated heat pump' hypothesis for the aerosol-monsoon hydroclimate link: 'Grounded' in observations?"

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    Key Points- Lau and Kim's defense of the EHP hypothesis is vague and tenuous- Lau and Kim's do not address any of the specific concerns on EHP raised by Niga

    Eyes Off the Earth? Public Opinion Regarding Climate Science and NASA

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    In this brief, authors Lawrence Hamilton, Jessica Brunacini, and Stephanie Pfirman report the results of two nationwide Polar, Environment, and Science surveys on climate change conducted in 2016, as well as a follow-up April 2017 Granite State Poll asking New Hampshire residents their thoughts on proposed cuts to the NASA program. Seventy-three percent of respondents in the nationwide survey said they trust science agencies such as NASA for information about climate change. The second-most-trusted source of information about climate change is family and friends. Despite political divisions, science agencies such as NASA are trusted by substantial majorities within every political group. Deep cuts to NASA Earth-observing satellite programs have been proposed by the president and in Congress. However, more than 80 percent of survey respondents (including majorities in all political groups) favor continuing or expanding NASA’s Earth observations, rather than cutting them
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