Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting

PlayeRank: data-driven performance evaluation and player ranking in soccer via a machine learning approach

The problem of evaluating the performance of soccer players is attracting the interest of many companies and the scientific community, thanks to the availability of massive data capturing all the events generated during a match (e.g., tackles, passes, shots, etc.). Unfortunately, there is no consolidated and widely accepted metric for measuring performance quality in all of its facets. In this paper, we design and implement PlayeRank, a data-driven framework that offers a principled multi-dimensional and role-aware evaluation of the performance of soccer players. We build our framework by deploying a massive dataset of soccer-logs and consisting of millions of match events pertaining to four seasons of 18 prominent soccer competitions. By comparing PlayeRank to known algorithms for performance evaluation in soccer, and by exploiting a dataset of players' evaluations made by professional soccer scouts, we show that PlayeRank significantly outperforms the competitors. We also explore the ratings produced by {\sf PlayeRank} and discover interesting patterns about the nature of excellent performances and what distinguishes the top players from the others. At the end, we explore some applications of PlayeRank -- i.e. searching players and player versatility --- showing its flexibility and efficiency, which makes it worth to be used in the design of a scalable platform for soccer analytics

Explanation-Based Auditing

To comply with emerging privacy laws and regulations, it has become common for applications like electronic health records systems (EHRs) to collect access logs, which record each time a user (e.g., a hospital employee) accesses a piece of sensitive data (e.g., a patient record). Using the access log, it is easy to answer simple queries (e.g., Who accessed Alice's medical record?), but this often does not provide enough information. In addition to learning who accessed their medical records, patients will likely want to understand why each access occurred. In this paper, we introduce the problem of generating explanations for individual records in an access log. The problem is motivated by user-centric auditing applications, and it also provides a novel approach to misuse detection. We develop a framework for modeling explanations which is based on a fundamental observation: For certain classes of databases, including EHRs, the reason for most data accesses can be inferred from data stored elsewhere in the database. For example, if Alice has an appointment with Dr. Dave, this information is stored in the database, and it explains why Dr. Dave looked at Alice's record. Large numbers of data accesses can be explained using general forms called explanation templates. Rather than requiring an administrator to manually specify explanation templates, we propose a set of algorithms for automatically discovering frequent templates from the database (i.e., those that explain a large number of accesses). We also propose techniques for inferring collaborative user groups, which can be used to enhance the quality of the discovered explanations. Finally, we have evaluated our proposed techniques using an access log and data from the University of Michigan Health System. Our results demonstrate that in practice we can provide explanations for over 94% of data accesses in the log.Comment: VLDB201