Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather

Pilot Convective Weather Decision Making in En Route Airspace

The present research investigates characteristics exhibited in pilot convective weather decision making in en route airspace. In a part-task study, pilots performed weather avoidance under various encounter scenarios. Results showed that the margins of safety that pilots maintain from storms are as fluid as deviation decisions themselves

Strengthening Soil Databases for Climate Change and Food Security Modeling Applications

Climate change is a hazard to the food security of a growing world population since it affects agriculture and likewise, agriculture and natural resource management affect the climate system. The relationships between all these factors including polices, political conditions, economical management and pest and diseases, and how they interact are not currently well-understood, nor are the advantages and disadvantages of different responses to climate change. In the face of climate change it is important to integrate knowledge about it to generate realistic solutions for agriculture, and food security in a meaningful and innovative way. Research in this topic has focused on addressing the needs for methods, models, databases and system metrics aimed at enhanced assessment and improved methodologies for the impact of climate change on agricultural systems and the development of different policy and program interventions to foster adaptation and mitigation in terms of poverty alleviation, food security and environmental health. This work should be in a framework and set of modeling tools and databases to analyze the implications of human responses to the climate challenge in terms of regional food security and the preservation of important ecosystem services, upon which the long-term sustainability of global agriculture must be based

Analysis of Automated Aircraft Conflict Resolution and Weather Avoidance

This paper describes an analysis of using trajectory-based automation to resolve both aircraft and weather constraints for near-term air traffic management decision making. The auto resolution algorithm developed and tested at NASA-Ames to resolve aircraft to aircraft conflicts has been modified to mitigate convective weather constraints. Modifications include adding information about the size of a gap between weather constraints to the routing solution. Routes that traverse gaps that are smaller than a specific size are not used. An evaluation of the performance of the modified autoresolver to resolve both conflicts with aircraft and weather was performed. Integration with the Center-TRACON Traffic Management System was completed to evaluate the effect of weather routing on schedule delays

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3) Multi-Flight Common Route (MFCR) Concept of Operations Version 1.0

NASA's Multi Flight Common Route (MFCR) automation represents one element of those technologies focusing primarily on delay recovery in the en route phase of flight. Delay recovery is an attenuation of flight-time delay, accomplished by periodically revising weather-avoidance routing as the convective weather system evolves. MFCR is intended for use by Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) in Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs, or Centers) and traffic management specialists (TMSs) in the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC). MFCR leverages existing weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication, and digital information technologies, to build on existing ATM automation and address some of the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. These capabilities provide significant potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings. The concept of operations described in this document describes MFCR functionality as delivered by NASA to the FAA in December 2017, including a list of potential enhancements that may be realized when the system is fielded

Sea State from High Resolution Satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery

The Sea Sate Processor (SSP) was developed for fully automatic processing of high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from TerraSAR-X (TS-X) satellites and implemented into the processing chain for Near Real Time (NRT) services in the DLR Ground Station "Neustrelitz". The NRT chain was organised and tested to provide the processed data to the German Weather Service (DWD) in order to validate the new coastal forecast model CWAM (Coastal WAve Model) in the German Bight of the North Sea with 900 m horizontal resolution. The NRT test-runs, wherein the processed TS-X data were transferred to DWD and then incorporated into forecast products reach the best performance about 10 min for delivery of processed TS-X data to DWD server after scene acquisition. To do this, a new empirical algorithm XWAVE_C (C = coastal) for estimation of significant wave height from X-band satellite-borne SAR data has been designed for coastal applications. The algorithm is based on the spectral analysis of subscenes and the empirical model function yields an estimation of integrated sea state parameters directly from SAR image spectra without transformation into wave spectra. To provide the raster coverage analysis, the SSP intends three steps of recognising and removing the influence of non-sea-state-produced signals in the Wadden Sea areas such as ships, buoys, dry sandbars as well as nonlinear SAR image distortions produced by e.g. short and breaking waves. For the validation, more than 150 TS-X StripMap scene sequences with a coverage of ~30 km × 300 km across the German Bight since 2013 were analysed and compared with in situ Buoy measurements from 6 different locations. On this basis, the SSP autonomous processing of TS-X Stripmap images has been confirmed to have a high accuracy with an error RMSE = 25 cm for the total significant wave height

Laboratory Evaluation of Dynamic Routing of Air Traffic in an En Route Arrival Metering Environment

Arrival air traffic operations in the presence of convective weather are subject to uncertainty in aircraft routing and subsequently in flight trajectory predictability. Current management of arrival operations in weather-impacted airspace results in significant flight delay and suspension of arrival metering operations. The Dynamic Routing for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) concept provides flight route amendment advisories to Traffic Management Coordinators to mitigate the impacts of convective weather on arrival operations. DRAW provides both weather conflict and schedule information for proposed route amendments, allowing air traffic managers to simultaneously evaluate weather avoidance routing and potential schedule and delay impacts. Subject matter experts consisting of retired Traffic Management Coordinators and retired Sector Controllers with arrival metering experience participated in a simulation study of Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center arrival operations. Data were collected for Traffic Management Coordinator and Sector Controller participants over three weeks of simulation activities in October, 2017. Traffic Management Coordinators reported acceptable workload levels, a positive impact on their ability to manage arrival traffic while using DRAW, and initiated weather mitigation reroutes earlier while using DRAW. Sector Controllers also reported acceptable workload levels while using DRAW

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance

Gabor frames and deep scattering networks in audio processing

This paper introduces Gabor scattering, a feature extractor based on Gabor frames and Mallat's scattering transform. By using a simple signal model for audio signals specific properties of Gabor scattering are studied. It is shown that for each layer, specific invariances to certain signal characteristics occur. Furthermore, deformation stability of the coefficient vector generated by the feature extractor is derived by using a decoupling technique which exploits the contractivity of general scattering networks. Deformations are introduced as changes in spectral shape and frequency modulation. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical examples and experiments. Numerical evidence is given by evaluation on a synthetic and a "real" data set, that the invariances encoded by the Gabor scattering transform lead to higher performance in comparison with just using Gabor transform, especially when few training samples are available.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables. Repository for reproducibility: https://gitlab.com/hararticles/gs-gt . Keywords: machine learning; scattering transform; Gabor transform; deep learning; time-frequency analysis; CNN. Accepted and published after peer revisio