Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia

Drought, one of the most common natural disasters that have the greatest impact on human social life, has been extremely challenging to accurately assess and predict. With global warming, it has become more important to make accurate drought predictions and assessments. In this study, based on climate model data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), we used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to analyze and project drought characteristics and their trends under two global warming scenarios—1.5 °C and 2.0 °C—in Central Asia. The results showed a marked decline in the PDSI in Central Asia under the influence of global warming, indicating that the drought situation in Central Asia would further worsen under both warming scenarios. Under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the PDSI in Central Asia decreased first and then increased, and the change time was around 2080, while the PDSI values showed a continuous decline after 2025 in the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Under the two warming scenarios, the spatial characteristics of dry and wet areas in Central Asia are projected to change significantly in the future. In the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the frequency of drought and the proportion of arid areas in Central Asia were significantly higher than those under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Using the Thornthwaite (TH) formula to calculate the PDSI produced an overestimation of drought, and the Penman–Monteith (PM) formula is therefore recommended to calculate the index

A review of Central Asian glaciochemical data

The glaciers of central Asia provide suitable locations from which to recover continuous, high-resolution glaciochemical records on a continental scale. Although the glaciochemical investigations undertaken to date in central Asia are few in number and limited in terms of spatial coverage and length of record, some preliminary observations can be made concerning regional and seasonal trends in snow chemistry in this region. The sodium chloride ratio for most snow samples collected in central Asia approaches the ratio found in sea water (0.86 in /Leq kg-I ), reflecting a marine source for these constituents. Sodium and chloride concentrations are, on average, 3-10 times higher in the Himalayas than in the Karakoram, demonstrating the greater influence of monsoonal sources of moisture in the Himalayas. Very high sodium concentrations from Khel Khod Glacier probably reflect a local crustal source from surrounding ice-free areas. Low nitrate concentrations were found in snow collected from the southern margin of the Himalayas and high concentrations in snow deposited on the north margin of the Himalayas. This strong regional trend in the spatial distribution of nitrate suggests the influx of continental aerosols, rich in nitrate, originating from the arid regions of central Asia. High calcium concentrations measured in snow from Mount Everest and the north-west corner of China are also indicative of dust derived from the arid regions of central Asia. Very high sulfate concentrations found in snow from the Tien Shan and the Bogda Shan most likely reflect local anthropogenic sources. The altitude effect on isotopic composition is not apparent from snow samples collected in central Asia. Understanding the processes which control the chemical content of snow, the local-to-regional scale complexities, and the seasonal variability are fundamental steps necessary to assess the potential for recovering representative long-term glaciochemical records from central Asia

Is it really different? Patterns of regionalisation in the post-Soviet Central Asia

While the regional economic integration encompassing the former Soviet Union (FSU) transpires to be inefficient, there appears to be a stronger interest in regionalism in smaller groups of more homogenous and geographically connected countries of the region, specifically, Central Asia. Using a new dataset, we find that although the economic links between the Central Asian countries are more pronounced than between that of the CIS in several key areas, this advantage has been disappearing fast over the last decade. In addition, the trend of economic integration of Central Asia strongly correlates to that of the CIS in general. Currently Central Asia should be treated as a sub-region of the post-Soviet world rather than a definite integration region.On the other hand, however, we find that Kazakhstan emerges as a new centre for regional integration, which can bear some potential for regionalism in Central Asia, and that there is an increasing trend towards greater economic interconnections with China in Central Asia. --regionalisation,economic integration,post-Soviet space,Central Asia

The EU Strategy for Central Asia says 'security'. Does this include Security Sector Reform? EUCAM Policy Brief No. 10, 12 November 2009

Central Asia faces a broad range of security challenges. Due to the region's position at the crossroads between Russia, China and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and the Caspian Sea it is confronted with a range of trans-national issues such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, organised crime and terrorism. Central Asia also encounters specific regional threats including scarcity of water resources for generating power and irrigation purposes, which is currently causing tension. On a national level the five Central Asian republics face the threat of instability due to bad governance and the harsh impact of the economic crisis. The European Union regards itself as a security actor and takes a keen interest in working with Central Asian states on the basis of joint security interests. This EUCAM policy brief assesses in what aspects of Security Sector Reform the EU is engaged in with Central Asia and in what context these possible activities should be viewed

A History of Slavery in Central Asia: Shī’ī Muslim Enslavement in 19th Century Bukhara

In lieu of an abstract, below is the essay\u27s first paragraph. Despite more than a century of interest on the part of western scholars and historians in the region of Central Asia, in many respects our knowledge of many topics in Central Asian history remains limited. To date, when compared to the body of historical works treating the history of the trans-Atlantic slave trade and slavery in the Americas, or even the history of slavery within the Arab-Muslim world, the history of slavery in Islamic Central Asia has received little attention. Thus, it stands to reason that the history of the enslavement of Shī’ī Muslims in the early modern and modern eras has been likewise neglected, often being mentioned in passing or dealt with in a few pages within larger works. Considering the extent to which both Bukhara and Khiva depended upon Shī’ī slaves as agricultural workers, domestic servants, bureaucrats, and such, this history of slavery in Central Asia is a topic that demands closer scrutiny. This paper will therefore consider the history of the enslavement of Shī’ī Muslims in the Emirate of Bukhara during the nineteenth century. As an institution, slavery was ideologically rationalized and sanctified according to long-standing sectarian prejudices, in this instance those of the Sunnī Muslims towards the Shī’ī Muslims, in the Central Asian states of the nineteenth century. This can be verified by an examination of the extant sources; as a preliminary examination of the topic, therefore, this study will draw primarily from nineteenth century travel accounts. By re-examining such works we can begin to fashion a more coherent narrative for the history of Shī’ī enslavement in Islamic Central Asia. However, before examining the travel accounts, the institution of slavery in relation to Islamic tradition must first be considered, as this will provide some perspective when we turn our attention to the enslavement of Shī’ī Muslims in Central Asia