An Analysis of Actual and Potential Trade between the EU Countries and the Eastern European Countries

The Eastern Enlargement represents an opportunity for trade growth for all the European Union (EU) countries. In fact, trade between the EU and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has increased considerably in the nineties. However, both benefits and losses from trade expansion do not equally affect all countries and regions inside the EU. This paper focus on the analysis of the potential bilateral trade flows between the EU and the CEEC and in special between the CEEC and the Southern European countries. The analysis is based on the gravity model approach using panel data from 1993 to 1999. It is possible to conclude that there is still scope for further expansion of the trade flows between some CEEC and some of the EU countries, in particular of some Southern countries

Financial Systems in Transition: Could Small Actually Be Beautiful?

CEEC; Russia

News and Correlations of CEEC-3 Financial Markets

We investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets estimated by DCC-MGARCH models. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are rather isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus the euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the timevarying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests adominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.Financial markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, political news, macroeconomic shocks, contagion, DCC-MGARCH

Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?

We estimate monetary policy rules for six central and eastern European countries (CEEC) during the period, when they prepared for membership to the EU and monetary union. By taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account and by introducing several new methodological features we significantly improve estimation results for monetary policy rules in CEEC. We find that in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland the focus of the interest rate setting behaviour switched from defending the peg to targeting inflation. For Slovakia, however, there still seemed to be on ongoing focus on the exchange rate. For Slovenia and only after a policy switch for Romania we find a solid relation with inflation as well

The impact of association agreements on trade flows and the trade balance: Evidence from the CEEC-4

In this paper we focus on the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries using a dynamic panel data approach. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to analyse the effect of the agreement variable is the system generalized method of moments (GMM). Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. However, exports and imports are affected in different ways, leading to some disparity in trade flow performance between countries. Therefore, there is an asymmetric impact on the trade balance, the agreement variable resulting in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4

THE ECONOMICS OF FARM ORGANIZATION IN CEEC AND FSU

In Western Europe, USA and other developed countries agriculture is dominated by small family farms. In Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and Former Soviet Union (FSU) dual structure of farms exists. There are large corporate farms (CF) and small family farms (FF) in CEEC and FSU. Our paper shows that both CF and FF specialize in commodities in which they have comparative advantage. CF specialize in capital intensive products and in products with low labor monitoring. FF specialize in products with higher labor monitoring requirements. The implication of this paper is that farm structure determines in which products the country will be competitive on international markets. This is especially important for transition countries where high transaction costs hinder the change of farm organization. For this reason in transition countries suffering from high transaction cost the choice of product structure is more important than the choice of farm organization.farm structure, production specialization, transaction costs, CEEC, FSU, Farm Management,

Productivity spillovers through vertical linkages: Evidence from 17 OECD countries

This paper extends the literature on productivity spillovers from inward FDI. We use comparable industry level data for 17 OECD countries and investigate the importance of horizontal and vertical spillovers, and differences between CEEC and other OECD countries. Results show that there is evidence for spillovers through vertical backward linkages between multinationals and domestic firms for all countries, but that this effect is much higher for CEEC than other OECD countries. We also find some evidence for positive effects from horizontal FDI, but these do not differ between the two country groups.Foreign direct investment, productivity, vertical linkages, spillovers

TDoes Product Differentiation Explain The Increase in Exports of Transition Countries?

The paper analyzes the increase in transition countries’ exports to their non-traditional trade partners. It uses four different measures of product differentiation to find out the extent that the increase in product variety explains this phenomenon. It is found that opening up to new trade partners first increases the number of sectors in which trade occurs. This is followed by a brief period of specialization in some select sectors, and finally an increase in the number of varieties of products in these sectors. Lastly, the increase in product variety in CEEC has been much more substantial than in CIS.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39985/3/wp599.pd

INNOVATION VERSUS INCOME CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE. IS THERE A CORRELATION?

The heterogeneity of response of the different economies facing the world economic crisis has brought into attention once again the issue of convergence inside the European Union. The high growth rates experienced by CEEC during the last decade created an optimistic view of rapid convergence towards Western Europe. But the crisis showed that the sources of economic growth in the region were not appropriate for a long run growth. Innovation is a key source of competitiveness and a contributor to a sustainable growth path. Even though CEEC lag behind other European countries in terms of R&D investment, a certain progress can be observed. The objective of the present paper is to establish if there is a correlation between the convergence in terms of GDP and the convergence in terms of innovation for the CEEC. Based on yearly Eurostat data for the period 1998-2008, we quantify the progress of each of the 10 CEEC both in closing the income gap and the innovation gap. We then rank the countries according to their speed of convergence and perform a Spearman rank correlation analysis. The results show that, on average, convergence in R&D is not correlated with convergence in GDP. The Czech Republic is the only country with a positive correlation between R&D intensity and GDP growth. Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia show a negative relationship between investment in R&D and economic growth. This implies that for most of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, economic growth during the period 1998-2008 was mostly driven by non-innovation factors.convergence, growth, innovation, R&D

The CEECs as FDI attractors: are they a menace to the EU periphery?

The change of economic, social and political orientation in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC), together with their expressed intention of joining the European Union (EU) in a foreseeable future, have raised a number of challenging questions. One object of interest has been the implications of Eastern openness in terms of international capital reallocation. This paper concentrates on the issue of foreign direct investment (FDI), which is considered a major channel of economic integration. In fact, in the particular case of these countries, a dramatic change in the pattern of FDI inflows took place in recent years. A number of studies have surveyed the determinants of FDI to this region but the issue still remains relatively unexplored from the empirical point of view. Using a random effects panel data model in the analysis, we try to empirically uncover the main determinants of FDI and to examine the probability of FDI diversion from the EU periphery to these transition economies. This issue is especially interesting for the EU periphery in general, and for cheap labour suppliers such as Portugal in particular, since there are reasons to believe that ‘the east may be getting what would otherwise come south’