Dynamics between Power Consumption and Economic Growth at Aggregated and Disaggregated (Sectoral) Level Using the Frequency Domain Causality

We investigated the Granger causal relationship between the consumption of power both at the aggregate and sectoral level and economic growth in India using the frequency domain approach, which would help policy makers seek the efficient allocation of electricity via proper policy initiatives at different frequencies. We find that at the aggregate level, unidirectional causality runs from the total power consumption to economic growth, starting from the second up to the seventh quarter. In the sectoral context, the results are different. Since there is no causality between industrial power consumption and economic growth; therefore, an energy conservation policy can thus be implemented for the industrial sector. Moreover, since a bidirectional causality exists after 15 quarters for the commercial sector, a short-term policy but not an energy conservation policy could also be initiated for this sector. In the industrial and agricultural sectors, a promotional policy should be initiated because a unidirectional causality exists from sectoral power consumption to economic growth. Therefore, different and sector-specific policies would be more appropriate than a single policy for all power sectors in India in order to orient the efficient utilisation of power towards better economic development

The role of personality in posttraumatic stress disorder, trait resilience, and quality of life in people exposed to the Kiss nightclub fire

Objective To evaluate the relationship among personality (according to Cloninger’s psychobiological model), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, trait resilience and quality of life (QoL) in people who were exposed to the Kiss nightclub fire. Methods 188 participants were assessed with the Posttraumatic Checklist–civilian version (PCL-C), the Resilience Scale (RS), the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), the World Health Organization Quality of Life–Bref (WHOQOL-Bref), and the WHOQOL-100 Spirituality, religiousness, and personal beliefs (WHOQOL-100-SRPB). Data were analyzed in a dimensional approach, with correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), with PCL-C, RS, and WHOQOL-Bref dimensions as dependent variables. Results Multiple linear regression showed that PTSD symptoms were predicted by harm avoidance (β = .34, p < .001), self-directedness (β = -.28, p < .01), and self-transcendence (β = .24, p < .01). Trait resilience was predicted by harm avoidance (β = -.38, p < .01), self-directedness (β = .20, p < .05), and self-transcendence (β = .18, p < .05). Also, PTSD symptoms had considerable negative effect on all dimensions of QoL. Self-transcendence was a positive predictor of subjective and spiritual QoL. SEM showed that QoL was predicted by PTSD symptoms (β = -.52, p < .001), trait resilience (β = .30, p < .001), cooperativeness (β = .135, p = 0.40), and self-directedness (β = .27, p < .01). The effect of self-directedness on QoL was mediated by PTSD symptoms and trait resilience. PTSD symptoms also mediated the relationship between trait resilience and QoL, and RS mediated the relationship of personality and PTSD symptoms. Conclusion The study gives insights on prediction of PTSD severity, trait resilience and QoL from temperament and character traits, in a sample of people exposed to the Kiss nightclub fire. Harm avoidance was the most influent trait on PTSD symptoms and trait resilience. Selfdirectedness was the most import trait related to QoL, still that it was more related to PTSD severity than personality traits. Self-transcendence had positive effects on both PTSD symptoms and trait resilience, indicating a coping style that may coexist with psychopathology

Environmental knowledge management: A long-term enabler of tourism development

A review of the literature confirms that there is a need for knowledge management frameworks which support knowledge creation, particularly in those organisations having to operate in a changing environment. Socialisation, externalisation, combination and internalisation continue to be key processes for the creation of knowledge which enables organisations to successfully address environmental challenges. This paper examines the relevance and importance of a SECI model as an enabler of the processes of reusing and updating the environmental knowledge of an organisation. The research reported has confirmed that time is a key component of the implementation of a SECI model in organisations operating in a changing environment. Thins been confirmed that such a strategy should focus on the reuse of prior environmental knowledge as a mechanism to establish within the organisation a context where new knowledge management processes are understood and adopted by employees. The paper also examines the relationship between environmental knowledge and organisational performance indicators. These relationships are examined through an empirical study of 87 companies in the Spanish hospitality sector. The results of the study indicate that environmental knowledge at any given time (T) is significant in predicting the knowledge management processes that may be successfully implemented at a later point in time (T + 6 years). (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models

Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks in the market for crude oil. We demonstrate that sign restrictions alone are insufficient to infer the responses of the real price of oil to such shocks. Moreover, the conventional assumption that all admissible models are equally likely is routinely violated in oil market models, calling into question the use of posterior median responses to characterize the responses to structural shocks. When combining sign restrictions with additional empirically plausible bounds on the magnitude of the short‐run oil supply elasticity and on the impact response of real activity, however, it is possible to reduce the set of admissible model solutions to a small number of qualitatively similar estimates. The resulting model estimates are broadly consistent with earlier results regarding the relative importance of demand and supply shocks for the real price of oil based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models identified by exclusion restrictions, but imply very different dynamics from the posterior median responses in VAR models based on sign restrictions only.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/93737/1/j.1542-4774.2012.01080.x.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/93737/2/JEEA_1080_sm_appendix.pd

Asking the Oracle: introducing forecasting principles into agent-based modelling

This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, the guidelines are structured in six categories that correspond to key issues that should be taken into account when building a predictor agent-based model: the modelling process, the data adequacy, the space of solutions, the expert involvement, the validation, and the dissemination and replication. The application of these guidelines is illustrated with an existing agent-based model. We conclude by tackling some intrinsic difficulties that agent-based modelling often faces when dealing with prediction models.project Social Ambient Assisting Living - Methods (SociAAL), supported by Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2011-28335-C02-01 and the Spanish MICINN project CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). We also thank the support from the Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-BSCH, GR35/10-A (921354

Econometrics: A bird's eye view

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledge and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks and forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of the "real time econometrics". This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments

Only the best for my kids: An extended TPB model to understand mothers’ use of food labels

Despite the evidence that mothers’ food purchasing behavior impacts the quality of children's diet, few studies have explored psycho-social factors influencing how mothers choose the food to buy for their children. To fill this gap, this study tested an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to predict mothers’ tendency to seek information on food labels before purchasing food for children. Participants included 311 Italian mothers who completed a self-report questionnaire measuring their information-seeking behavior, TPB variables, anticipated regret and healthy-eater identity. Results from a Multiple Correspondence Analysis showed that mothers’ information-seeking behavior involved a continuum of choices ranging from selecting conventional or prepackaged foods to choosing to read the food label before making a purchase. Besides, a Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling analysis showed that information-seeking behavior was positively predicted by intention (β = 0.309, p < 0.001) and healthy-eater identity (β = 0.195, p < 0.001). In turn, intention was positively affected by attitude (β = 0.208, p < 0.001), subjective norms (β = 0.155, p < 0.01), perceived behavioral control (β = 0.124, p < 0.05), anticipated regret (β = 0.193, p < 0.001), and healthy-eater identity (β = 0.191, p < 0.001). These findings emphasize that future initiatives could usefully target attitude, anticipated regret and self-identity to encourage mothers’ informed food choices for their children

The dynamic relationship of interest rate, price level, money supply and real gross domestic product: case study of Iran

The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, price level, money supply and real gross domestic product for Iran by considering the effect of economic sanctions during a time period 1980-2014. To analyze the collected data, the VARX method was used and the data were analyzed by Eviews 9 software. Also, for data analysis, the variable of economic sanction was considered as exogenous variable and other variables were considered as endogenous variables. The empirical findings of the study show that there is a significant and bilateral relationship between most endogenous variables of the model. Also, it was observed that the variable of economic sanction has a significant effect on the intended macro variables. Keywords: interest rate, price level, money supply, real gross domestic product, economic sanction. JEL Classification: E40, E51, F5

Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledged and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks of forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of “real time econometrics”. This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments.history of econometrics, microeconometrics, macroeconometrics, Bayesian econometrics, nonparametric and semi-parametric analysis

Causal Attribution for Poverty in Young People: Sociodemographic Characteristics, Religious and Political Beliefs

Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon that includes a lack of education, health or housing; it is a relevant factor of social vulnerability that could lead to a situation of social exclusion. According to studies, poverty can be explained by external/social, internal/individual or cultural fatalistic factors. The aim was to confirm the structure of causal attributions of poverty and their relationships with sociodemographic characteristics, as well as religious and political beliefs, in young people. This is a cross-sectional study with a non-probabilistic convenience sample of undergraduate students on different degree courses. A survey was administered to 278 participants (45.4% women) with an average age of 21.59. They were young people studying health science degrees (78.4%) who self-identified as belonging to the lower or middle–lower class (57.2%), without any religious beliefs (56.5%) and as left wing (37.8%; n = 94) or center-left (27.7%; n = 69) in their political orientation. Confirmatory factorial analysis and multiple regression analysis supported the results in previous literature (CFI = 0.90, SRMR = 0.07, RMSEA = 0.06), indicating that there are cultural (C), external (E-S) and internal (I) attribution factors of poverty. The results show moderate relationships between the cultural factor and internal or external factors. The findings show that political affiliation and sex are the most consistent predictors of attributions for poverty.The APC was funded by Miguel Hernández University (Open access publishing grants (OPEN ACCESS)