The long and the short of it: recent trends and cycles in the Third District states

Most discussions of business cycles focus on the national economy. But regional cycles are also important, and they can vary significantly from one region to another. Analysis of regional cycles can help businesses plan investments and project sales, among other things. A look at the economies of the Third District states - Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware -illustrates how trends and cycles can differ even among neighboring states. In "The Long and the Short of It: Recent Trends and Cycles in the Third District States," Ted Crone traces the historical patterns of the three states' economies but warns that noting such patterns is not a substitute for detailed current analysis.Business cycles

What accounts for the postwar decline in economic volatility?

Finally, we look at the broader picture to determine why the U.S. economy has had fewer and shorter recessions over the past 20 years. Over time, swings in the growth of many macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product, have become smaller. Why this decline in economic volatility? In "What Accounts for the Postwar Decline in Economic Volatility?" Keith Sill highlights some of the facts about the increased stability of the U.S. economy and assesses the contribution of policy and other factors to the decline in volatility.Recessions

From centralization to deconcentration: people and jobs spread out.

During the first half of the 20th century, people and jobs in the United States moved from rural to urban areas. After World War II, the U.S. saw other important shifts, including deconcentration - the movement of people and jobs from large, dense MSAs to small, less dense ones. This article looks at various aspects of deconcentration to see just how fast growth has been in less dense MSAs, whether trends for population and employment are the same, and whether the experience of MSAs in the frostbelt and sunbelt has been the same.Employment (Economic theory) ; Metropolitan areas - Statistics

Process and progress in risk management

President Anthony Santomero discusses three points: risk management as its own distinct discipline; the financial industry's work to improve risk-management techniques and regulators' increased commitment to risk-focused examinations; and the need to improve risk-management systems even further.Risk management

The complexities of monetary policy.

What happens when an academic researcher becomes a policymaker? Recently, President Anthony Santomero shared some thoughts on this topic with members for the Downtown Economists Club in New York City. In particular, he talked about several conundrums he's encountered since moving from the academy to the central bank. We've reprinted his speech "The Complexities of Monetary Policy" in this issue of the Business Review so that we can share President Santomero's insights with our readers as well.Monetary policy

Crises, contagion, and coordination: a summary of the 2002 Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum

In our next article, "Crises, Contagion, and Coordination," Loretta Mester summarizes last year's Policy Forum. On pages 16-17, you'll find information about this year's Forum: "Managing the Recovery in Uncertain Times." In "Changes in the Use of Electronic Means of Payment: 1995-2001," Mester updates tables that first appeared in her article in the March/April 2000 Business Review. The tables are based on data from the 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances.

A summary of the conference on real-time data analysis.

The conference focused on five topics: data revisions, forecasting, policy analysis, financial research, and macroeconomic research. In "A Summary of the Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis," Tom Stark reviews the papers presented at the conferenceMacroeconomics

Strategies for Parallel Markup

Cross-referenced parallel markup for mathematics allows the combination of both presentation and content representations while associating the components of each. Interesting applications are enabled by such an arrangement, such as interaction with parts of the presentation to manipulate and querying the corresponding content, and enhanced search indexing. Although the idea of such markup is hardly new, effective techniques for creating and manipulating it are more difficult than it appears. Since the structures and tokens in the two formats often do not correspond one-to-one, decisions and heuristics must be developed to determine in which way each component refers to and is referred to by components of the other representation. Conversion between fine and coarse grained parallel markup complicates ID assignments. In this paper, we will describe the techniques developed for \LaTeXML, a \TeX/\LaTeX to XML converter, to create cross-referenced parallel MathML. While we do not yet consider \LaTeXML's content MathML to be useful, the current effort is a step towards that continuing goal

Has suburbanization diminished the importance of access to Center City?

Nine years ago, the Business Review examined the role that access to Center City Philadelphia played in people's choices about where to live and how to commute. Using 1980 census data, that analysis concluded that access to Center City by both car and public transportation shaped people's choices in important ways. But since 1980, the Philadelphia metropolitan area has undergone a great deal of change, including a decentralization of both population and employment. In this article, Dick Voith revisits the questions first posed almost a decade ago to see how employment and population shifts influenced people's choices in the 1990s.Cities and towns ; Philadelphia (Pa.)

House prices and the quality of public schools: what are we buying?

Do house prices reflect the quality of the local public schools? To what extent do school district policies determine how well students perform? How do such factors as neighborhood, family, and peers affect school quality and house prices? Ted Crone examines these questions, and others, to determine whether house prices do, indeed, include a school premium.Education ; Housing