The Nature of Theory in Information Systems

The aim of this research essay is to examine the structural nature of theory in Information Systems. Despite the importance of theory, questions relating to its form and structure are neglected in comparison with questions relating to epistemology. The essay addresses issues of causality, explanation, prediction, and generalization that underlie an understanding of theory. A taxonomy is proposed that classifies information systems theories with respect to the manner in which four central goals are addressed: analysis, explanation, prediction, and prescription. Five interrelated types of theory are distinguished: (1) theory for analyzing, (2) theory for explaining, (3) theory for predicting, (4) theory for explaining and predicting, and (5) theory for design and action. Examples illustrate the nature of each theory type. The applicability of the taxonomy is demonstrated by classifying a sample of journal articles. The paper contributes by showing that multiple views of theory exist and by exposing the assumptions underlying different viewpoints. In addition, it is suggested that the type of theory under development can influence the choice of an epistemological approach. Support is given for the legitimacy and value of each theory type. The building of integrated bodies of theory that encompass all theory types is advocated

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises

Management of Stochastic Demand in Make-to-Stock Manufacturing

Up to now, demand fulfillment in make-to-stock manufacturing is usually handled by advanced planning systems. Orders are fulfilled on the basis of simple rules or deterministic planning approaches not taking into account demand fluctuations. The consideration of different customer classes as it is often done today requires more sophisticated approaches explicitly considering stochastic influences. This book reviews current literature, presents a framework that addresses revenue management and demand fulfillment at once and introduces new stochastic approaches for demand fulfillment in make-to-stock manufacturing based on the ideas of the revenue management literature