1,095 research outputs found
Statistical Arbitrage Mining for Display Advertising
We study and formulate arbitrage in display advertising. Real-Time Bidding
(RTB) mimics stock spot exchanges and utilises computers to algorithmically buy
display ads per impression via a real-time auction. Despite the new automation,
the ad markets are still informationally inefficient due to the heavily
fragmented marketplaces. Two display impressions with similar or identical
effectiveness (e.g., measured by conversion or click-through rates for a
targeted audience) may sell for quite different prices at different market
segments or pricing schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel data mining
paradigm called Statistical Arbitrage Mining (SAM) focusing on mining and
exploiting price discrepancies between two pricing schemes. In essence, our
SAMer is a meta-bidder that hedges advertisers' risk between CPA (cost per
action)-based campaigns and CPM (cost per mille impressions)-based ad
inventories; it statistically assesses the potential profit and cost for an
incoming CPM bid request against a portfolio of CPA campaigns based on the
estimated conversion rate, bid landscape and other statistics learned from
historical data. In SAM, (i) functional optimisation is utilised to seek for
optimal bidding to maximise the expected arbitrage net profit, and (ii) a
portfolio-based risk management solution is leveraged to reallocate bid volume
and budget across the set of campaigns to make a risk and return trade-off. We
propose to jointly optimise both components in an EM fashion with high
efficiency to help the meta-bidder successfully catch the transient statistical
arbitrage opportunities in RTB. Both the offline experiments on a real-world
large-scale dataset and online A/B tests on a commercial platform demonstrate
the effectiveness of our proposed solution in exploiting arbitrage in various
model settings and market environments.Comment: In the proceedings of the 21st ACM SIGKDD international conference on
Knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD 2015
Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising
The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB)
--- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just
being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally,
it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid
an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as
a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression
independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the
bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span
before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by
the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the
rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has
completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy
sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across
all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future
rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a
reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the
auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is
the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition,
we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding
policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding
environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world
auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation
using neural networks.Comment: WSDM 201
Online Model Evaluation in a Large-Scale Computational Advertising Platform
Online media provides opportunities for marketers through which they can
deliver effective brand messages to a wide range of audiences. Advertising
technology platforms enable advertisers to reach their target audience by
delivering ad impressions to online users in real time. In order to identify
the best marketing message for a user and to purchase impressions at the right
price, we rely heavily on bid prediction and optimization models. Even though
the bid prediction models are well studied in the literature, the equally
important subject of model evaluation is usually overlooked. Effective and
reliable evaluation of an online bidding model is crucial for making faster
model improvements as well as for utilizing the marketing budgets more
efficiently. In this paper, we present an experimentation framework for bid
prediction models where our focus is on the practical aspects of model
evaluation. Specifically, we outline the unique challenges we encounter in our
platform due to a variety of factors such as heterogeneous goal definitions,
varying budget requirements across different campaigns, high seasonality and
the auction-based environment for inventory purchasing. Then, we introduce
return on investment (ROI) as a unified model performance (i.e., success)
metric and explain its merits over more traditional metrics such as
click-through rate (CTR) or conversion rate (CVR). Most importantly, we discuss
commonly used evaluation and metric summarization approaches in detail and
propose a more accurate method for online evaluation of new experimental models
against the baseline. Our meta-analysis-based approach addresses various
shortcomings of other methods and yields statistically robust conclusions that
allow us to conclude experiments more quickly in a reliable manner. We
demonstrate the effectiveness of our evaluation strategy on real campaign data
through some experiments.Comment: Accepted to ICDM201
Evaluating and Optimizing Online Advertising: Forget the click, but there are good proxies
A main goal of online display advertising is to drive purchases (etc.)
following ad engagement. However, there often are too few purchase
conversions for campaign evaluation and optimization, due to low
conversion rates, cold start periods, and long purchase cycles (e.g.,
with brand advertising). This paper presents results across dozens of
experiments within individual online display advertising campaigns, each
comparing different 'proxies' for measuring success. Measuring success
is critical both for evaluating and comparing different targeting
strategies, and for designing and optimizing the strategies in the first
place (for example, via predictive modeling). Proxies are necessary
because data on the actual goals of advertising (e.g., purchasing,
increased brand affinity, etc.) often are scarce, missing, or
fundamentally difficult or impossible to observe. The paper presents bad
news and good news. The most commonly cited and used proxy for success
is a click on an advertisement. The bad news is that across a large
number of campaigns, clicks are not good proxies for evaluation nor for
optimization: buyers do not resemble clickers. The good news is that an
alternative sort of proxy performs remarkably well: observed visits to
the brand's website. Specifically, predictive models built based on
brand site visits do a remarkably good job of predicting which browsers
will purchase. The practical bottom line: evaluating campaigns and
optimizing based on clicks seems wrongheaded; however, there is an easy
and attractive alternative|use a well-chosen site visit proxy instead.m6d research; NYU Stern School of Busines
- …