627 research outputs found
Best-Arm Identification in Linear Bandits
We study the best-arm identification problem in linear bandit, where the
rewards of the arms depend linearly on an unknown parameter and the
objective is to return the arm with the largest reward. We characterize the
complexity of the problem and introduce sample allocation strategies that pull
arms to identify the best arm with a fixed confidence, while minimizing the
sample budget. In particular, we show the importance of exploiting the global
linear structure to improve the estimate of the reward of near-optimal arms. We
analyze the proposed strategies and compare their empirical performance.
Finally, as a by-product of our analysis, we point out the connection to the
-optimality criterion used in optimal experimental design.Comment: In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27 (NIPS), 201
von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage Theorems for Causal Decision Making
Causal thinking and decision making under uncertainty are fundamental aspects
of intelligent reasoning. Decision making under uncertainty has been well
studied when information is considered at the associative (probabilistic)
level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a
formal criterion for rational choice using purely associative information.
Causal inference often yields uncertainty about the exact causal structure, so
we consider what kinds of decisions are possible in those conditions. In this
work, we consider decision problems in which available actions and consequences
are causally connected. After recalling a previous causal decision making
result, which relies on a known causal model, we consider the case in which the
causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational
decision maker. In this setting we state and prove a causal version of Savage's
Theorem, which we then use to develop a notion of causal games with its
respective causal Nash equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of
causal models in decision making and the variety of potential applications.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Causal Inferenc
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