Hybrid Process Models in Electrochemical Syntheses under Deep Uncertainty

Chemical process engineering and machine learning are merging rapidly, and hybrid process models have shown promising results in process analysis and process design. However, uncertainties in first-principles process models have an adverse effect on extrapolations and inferences based on hybrid process models. Parameter sensitivities are an essential tool to understand better the underlying uncertainty propagation and hybrid system identification challenges. Still, standard parameter sensitivity concepts may fail to address comprehensive parameter uncertainty problems, i.e., deep uncertainty with aleatoric and epistemic contributions. This work shows a highly effective and reproducible sampling strategy to calculate simulation uncertainties and global parameter sensitivities for hybrid process models under deep uncertainty. We demonstrate the workflow with two electrochemical synthesis simulation studies, including the synthesis of furfuryl alcohol and 4-aminophenol. Compared with Monte Carlo reference simulations, the CPU-time was significantly reduced. The general findings of the hybrid model sensitivity studies under deep uncertainty are twofold. First, epistemic uncertainty has a significant effect on uncertainty analysis. Second, the predicted parameter sensitivities of the hybrid process models add value to the interpretation and analysis of the hybrid models themselves but are not suitable for predicting the real process/full first-principles process model’s sensitivities

GINNs:Graph-Informed Neural Networks for Multiscale Physics

We introduce the concept of a Graph-Informed Neural Network (GINN), a hybrid approach combining deep learning with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) that acts as a surrogate for physics-based representations of multiscale and multiphysics systems. GINNs address the twin challenges of removing intrinsic computational bottlenecks in physics-based models and generating large data sets for estimating probability distributions of quantities of interest (QoIs) with a high degree of confidence. Both the selection of the complex physics learned by the NN and its supervised learning/prediction are informed by the PGM, which includes the formulation of structured priors for tunable control variables (CVs) to account for their mutual correlations and ensure physically sound CV and QoI distributions. GINNs accelerate the prediction of QoIs essential for simulation-based decision-making where generating sufficient sample data using physics-based models alone is often prohibitively expensive. Using a real-world application grounded in supercapacitor-based energy storage, we describe the construction of GINNs from a Bayesian network-embedded homogenized model for supercapacitor dynamics, and demonstrate their ability to produce kernel density estimates of relevant non-Gaussian, skewed QoIs with tight confidence intervals.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figure

Describing condensed matter from atomically resolved imaging data: from structure to generative and causal models

The development of high-resolution imaging methods such as electron and scanning probe microscopy and atomic probe tomography have provided a wealth of information on structure and functionalities of solids. The availability of this data in turn necessitates development of approaches to derive quantitative physical information, much like the development of scattering methods in the early XX century which have given one of the most powerful tools in condensed matter physics arsenal. Here, we argue that this transition requires adapting classical macroscopic definitions, that can in turn enable fundamentally new opportunities in understanding physics and chemistry. For example, many macroscopic definitions such as symmetry can be introduced locally only in a Bayesian sense, balancing the prior knowledge of materials' physics and experimental data to yield posterior probability distributions. At the same time, a wealth of local data allows fundamentally new approaches for the description of solids based on construction of statistical and physical generative models, akin to Ginzburg-Landau thermodynamic models. Finally, we note that availability of observational data opens pathways towards exploring causal mechanisms underpinning solid structure and functionality

A Partially Reflecting Random Walk on Spheres Algorithm for Electrical Impedance Tomography

In this work, we develop a probabilistic estimator for the voltage-to-current map arising in electrical impedance tomography. This novel so-called partially reflecting random walk on spheres estimator enables Monte Carlo methods to compute the voltage-to-current map in an embarrassingly parallel manner, which is an important issue with regard to the corresponding inverse problem. Our method uses the well-known random walk on spheres algorithm inside subdomains where the diffusion coefficient is constant and employs replacement techniques motivated by finite difference discretization to deal with both mixed boundary conditions and interface transmission conditions. We analyze the global bias and the variance of the new estimator both theoretically and experimentally. In a second step, the variance is considerably reduced via a novel control variate conditional sampling technique