Bayesian Logic Programs

Bayesian networks provide an elegant formalism for representing and reasoning about uncertainty using probability theory. Theyare a probabilistic extension of propositional logic and, hence, inherit some of the limitations of propositional logic, such as the difficulties to represent objects and relations. We introduce a generalization of Bayesian networks, called Bayesian logic programs, to overcome these limitations. In order to represent objects and relations it combines Bayesian networks with definite clause logic by establishing a one-to-one mapping between ground atoms and random variables. We show that Bayesian logic programs combine the advantages of both definite clause logic and Bayesian networks. This includes the separation of quantitative and qualitative aspects of the model. Furthermore, Bayesian logic programs generalize both Bayesian networks as well as logic programs. So, many ideas developedComment: 52 page

Conjunctive Bayesian networks

Conjunctive Bayesian networks (CBNs) are graphical models that describe the accumulation of events which are constrained in the order of their occurrence. A CBN is given by a partial order on a (finite) set of events. CBNs generalize the oncogenetic tree models of Desper et al. by allowing the occurrence of an event to depend on more than one predecessor event. The present paper studies the statistical and algebraic properties of CBNs. We determine the maximum likelihood parameters and present a combinatorial solution to the model selection problem. Our method performs well on two datasets where the events are HIV mutations associated with drug resistance. Concluding with a study of the algebraic properties of CBNs, we show that CBNs are toric varieties after a coordinate transformation and that their ideals possess a quadratic Gr\"{o}bner basis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/07-BEJ6133 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm