Bayesian Optimization for Adaptive MCMC

This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy in the complex setting of sampling from constrained, discrete and densely connected probabilistic graphical models where, for each variation of the problem, one needs to adjust the parameters of the proposal mechanism automatically to ensure efficient mixing of the Markov chains.Comment: This paper contains 12 pages and 6 figures. A similar version of this paper has been submitted to AISTATS 2012 and is currently under revie

A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization of Expensive Cost Functions, with Application to Active User Modeling and Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

We present a tutorial on Bayesian optimization, a method of finding the maximum of expensive cost functions. Bayesian optimization employs the Bayesian technique of setting a prior over the objective function and combining it with evidence to get a posterior function. This permits a utility-based selection of the next observation to make on the objective function, which must take into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling areas likely to offer improvement over the current best observation). We also present two detailed extensions of Bayesian optimization, with experiments---active user modelling with preferences, and hierarchical reinforcement learning---and a discussion of the pros and cons of Bayesian optimization based on our experiences

Planning as Optimization: Dynamically Discovering Optimal Configurations for Runtime Situations

The large number of possible configurations of modern software-based systems, combined with the large number of possible environmental situations of such systems, prohibits enumerating all adaptation options at design time and necessitates planning at run time to dynamically identify an appropriate configuration for a situation. While numerous planning techniques exist, they typically assume a detailed state-based model of the system and that the situations that warrant adaptations are known. Both of these assumptions can be violated in complex, real-world systems. As a result, adaptation planning must rely on simple models that capture what can be changed (input parameters) and observed in the system and environment (output and context parameters). We therefore propose planning as optimization: the use of optimization strategies to discover optimal system configurations at runtime for each distinct situation that is also dynamically identified at runtime. We apply our approach to CrowdNav, an open-source traffic routing system with the characteristics of a real-world system. We identify situations via clustering and conduct an empirical study that compares Bayesian optimization and two types of evolutionary optimization (NSGA-II and novelty search) in CrowdNav

Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources, and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of ideas with few clear overarching principles. In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and comment on the path forward