The Rhetoric of Legal Backfire

This Article focuses on legal backfire claims. A claim of legal backfire constitutes the position that a law produces or will produce results directly contrary to one or more of those intended. Legal backfire claims are pervasive, yet potentially misleading and harmful argumentation used primarily to undermine existing law (or policy) or to forestall the enactment of new law. This Article analyzes many examples of legal backfire to suggest that the concept is often a rhetorical strategy for opposing the promulgation of new law or policy or for attempting to have existing law rolled back, and that actual legal backfires are much more rare (or at least unproven) than use of the rhetoric would suggest. This Article also addresses a much more basic problem: the challenges to effective lawmaking and the limitations of techniques to evaluate the effects of law make an accurate assessment of law problematic. Ultimately, this Article suggests that lawmakers should proceed with caution when dealing with legal backfire claims because critics of laws almost invariably author these claims, the claims are rhetorically charged, and the claims themselves are extraordinary

Opinion dynamics with backfire effect and biased assimilation

The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This raises the question of how individual opinions evolve in such a networked environment without grounding in a known reality. The dominant approach to studying this problem uses simple models from the social sciences on how individuals change their opinions when exposed to their social neighborhood, and applies them on large social networks. We propose a novel model that incorporates two known social phenomena: (i) Biased Assimilation: the tendency of individuals to adopt other opinions if they are similar to their own; (ii) Backfire Effect: the fact that an opposite opinion may further entrench someone in their stance, making their opinion more extreme instead of moderating it. To the best of our knowledge this is the first DeGroot-type opinion formation model that captures the Backfire Effect. A thorough theoretical and empirical analysis of the proposed model reveals intuitive conditions for polarization and consensus to exist, as well as the properties of the resulting opinions

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Relative Price Sensitivity Required to Induce Rebound Effects in Response to an Improvement in Energy Efficiency in the UK Economy

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects.Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.CGE modelling, energy efficiency, rebound effects

UKERC Review of evidence for the rebound effect: Technical report 5: Energy, productivity and economic growth studies

This report forms part of the TPA’s assessment of evidence for a rebound effect from improved energy efficiency. Technical Report 5 focuses upon the relationship between energy, productivity and economic growth and examines the claim that improved energy efficiency will increase economy-wide energy consumption - the so-called ‘Khazzoom-Brookes postulate’

The Disparity Between Scientific Consensus and American Public Opinion of Genetically Modified Organisms and Genetic Engineering

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and genetic engineering (GE) are accepted as safe and useful by the consensus of the scientific community. Their diverse utility has shown promise in addressing major challenges of the 21st century, including world hunger, global warming, and the prevalence of diet-related diseases (e.g. heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc.). A 2014 Pew Research Center survey revealed that while 88% of scientists agreed that GM foods were safe to eat, only 37% of American consumers agreed. Furthermore, only 35% of U.S. adults trusted scientists to accurately inform the public about GMOs. To explain this disparity, I synthesize information about stakeholders in GMOs and GE, demographics linked to acceptance and denial, interpretation of scientific consensus, psychological mechanisms controlling bias, and poor practice of science. Analysis reveals that the disparity in GMO and GE perception between the scientific community and the American public was caused by bad science, foreign political agendas, profit-driven media, and psychological factors, such as intuitive expectations, soft attitudes, and the backfire effect; furthermore, I show that despite innate conduits for bias development, educated, high income, and youthful demographics will shrink the gap between scientific consensus and public opinion if GMO education and equal access to education increase

The Effects of Selective and Indiscriminate Repression on the 2013 Gezi Park Nonviolent Resistance Campaign

We investigate the differential effects of selective and indiscriminate repression on the rate of protest actions during the nonviolent resistance campaign in Gezi Park, Turkey, in 2013. After deriving theoretical expectations about how and why these forms of repression will influence protest actions, we test them with protest event data that were collected from a major local newspaper and subsequently validated through a comparison with two other independent Twitter datasets. Utilizing a Poisson autoregressive estimation model, we find that selective repression, as measured by the number of arrested activists who were detained while they were not demonstrating, decreased the rate of protest actions. Meanwhile, indiscriminate repression, as measured by the frequency of the government’s use of lethal and nonlethal violence against protesters during demonstrations, increased the rate of protest actions. Our findings support prior research on the influence of indiscriminate repression on backfire outcomes. They also provide evidence for the impact of selective repression on movement demobilization through the removal of opposition activists. Finally, the targeted arrest strategy of selective repression that was employed in the Gezi campaign has implications for the feasibility of the strategic incapacitation model of protest policing

Excitable Delaunay triangulations

In an excitable Delaunay triangulation every node takes three states (resting, excited and refractory) and updates its state in discrete time depending on a ratio of excited neighbours. All nodes update their states in parallel. By varying excitability of nodes we produce a range of phenomena, including reflection of excitation wave from edge of triangulation, backfire of excitation, branching clusters of excitation and localized excitation domains. Our findings contribute to studies of propagating perturbations and waves in non-crystalline substrates

The language backfire effect: do customers always prefer to be served in their strongest language?

Current research in service research and sociolinguistics proposes that customers who are served in their native language hold more favorable impressions of the service provider than customers served in their second language. This paper challenges that perspective. Two studies show that consumers served in their first language after initiating contact in a second language feel humiliated. The results show that consumers exhibit a backfire effect to the service provider’s language change, and this backfire effect is due to a perceived identity threat. Consumers who are served in their first language when trying to speak a second language assume the service provider doubts their language skills, causing perceived humiliation. As even minor variations in humiliation might have negative consequences for service providers, the findings carry important implications for both theory and practice

Spillover and diffraction sidelobe contamination in a double-shielded experiment for mapping Galactic synchrotron emission

We have analyzed observations from a radioastronomical experiment to survey the sky at decimetric wavelengths along with feed pattern measurements in order to account for the level of ground contamination entering the sidelobes. A major asset of the experiment is the use of a wire mesh fence around the rim-halo shielded antenna with the purpose of levelling out and reducing this source of stray radiation for zenith-centered 1-rpm circular scans. We investigate the shielding performance of the experiment by means of a geometric diffraction model in order to predict the level of the spillover and diffraction sidelobes in the direction of the ground. Using 408 MHz and 1465 MHz feed measurements, the model shows how a weakly-diffracting and unshielded antenna configuration becomes strongly-diffracting and double-shielded as far-field diffraction effects give way to near-field ones. Due to the asymmetric response of the feeds, the orientation of their radiation fields with respect to the secondary must be known a priori before comparing model predictions with observational data. By adjusting the attenuation coefficient of the wire mesh the model is able to reproduce the amount of differential ground pick-up observed during test measurements at 1465 MHz.Comment: 14 pages, 17 eps + 1 gif figures and 4 Tables. Accepted for publication in A&AS. Fig.7 available at full resolution from http://www.das.inpe.br/~tello/publications.ht