Leveraging Deep-learning and Field Experiment Response Heterogeneity to Enhance Customer Targeting Effectiveness

Firms seek to better understand heterogeneity in the customer response to marketing campaigns, which can boost customer targeting effectiveness. Motivated by the success of modern machine learning techniques, this paper presents a framework that leverages deep-learning algorithms and field experiment response heterogeneity to enhance customer targeting effectiveness. We recommend firms run a pilot randomized experiment and use the data to train various deep-learning models. By incorporating recurrent neural nets and deep perceptron nets, our optimal deep-learning model can capture both temporal and network effects in the purchase history, after addressing the common issues in most predictive models such as imbalanced training, data sparsity, temporality, and scalability. We then apply the learned optimal model to identify customer targets from the large amount of remaining customers with the highest predicted purchase probabilities. Our application with a large department store on a total of 2.8 million customers supports that optimal deep-learning models can identify higher-value customer targets and lead to better sales performance of marketing campaigns, compared to industry common practices of targeting by past purchase frequency or spending amount. We demonstrate that companies may achieve sub-optimal customer targeting not because they offer inferior campaign incentives, but because they leverage worse targeting rules and select low-value customer targets. The results inform managers that beyond gauging the causal impact of marketing interventions, data from field experiments can also be leveraged to identify high-value customer targets. Overall, deep-learning algorithms can be integrated with field experiment response heterogeneity to improve the effectiveness of targeted campaigns

A Study of Accomodation of Prosodic and Temporal Features in Spoken Dialogues in View of Speech Technology Applications

Inter-speaker accommodation is a well-known property of human speech and human interaction in general. Broadly it refers to the behavioural patterns of two (or more) interactants and the effect of the (verbal and non-verbal) behaviour of each to that of the other(s). Implementation of thisbehavior in spoken dialogue systems is desirable as an improvement on the naturalness of humanmachine interaction. However, traditional qualitative descriptions of accommodation phenomena do not provide sufficient information for such an implementation. Therefore, a quantitativedescription of inter-speaker accommodation is required. This thesis proposes a methodology of monitoring accommodation during a human or humancomputer dialogue, which utilizes a moving average filter over sequential frames for each speaker. These frames are time-aligned across the speakers, hence the name Time Aligned Moving Average (TAMA). Analysis of spontaneous human dialogue recordings by means of the TAMA methodology reveals ubiquitous accommodation of prosodic features (pitch, intensity and speech rate) across interlocutors, and allows for statistical (time series) modeling of the behaviour, in a way which is meaningful for implementation in spoken dialogue system (SDS) environments.In addition, a novel dialogue representation is proposed that provides an additional point of view to that of TAMA in monitoring accommodation of temporal features (inter-speaker pause length and overlap frequency). This representation is a percentage turn distribution of individual speakercontributions in a dialogue frame which circumvents strict attribution of speaker-turns, by considering both interlocutors as synchronously active. Both TAMA and turn distribution metrics indicate that correlation of average pause length and overlap frequency between speakers can be attributed to accommodation (a debated issue), and point to possible improvements in SDS “turntaking” behaviour. Although the findings of the prosodic and temporal analyses can directly inform SDS implementations, further work is required in order to describe inter-speaker accommodation sufficiently, as well as to develop an adequate testing platform for evaluating the magnitude ofperceived improvement in human-machine interaction. Therefore, this thesis constitutes a first step towards a convincingly useful implementation of accommodation in spoken dialogue systems