An Age-Period-Cohort Database of Inter-Regional Migration in Australia and Britain, 1976-96

Report prepared as part of a collaborative project on "Migration Trends in Australia and Britain: Levels and Trends in an Age-Period-Cohort Framework" funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and the Australian Research Council. This paper describes the way in which parallel databases of inter-regional migration flows for Australia and Britain, classified by five year ages and birth cohorts for four five year periods between 1976 and 1996. The data processing involves estimation of migration data for comparable spatial units, the reduction of the number of those units to a reduced set for ease of analysis, the extraction of migration data from official data files supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Office for National Statistics, and the filling of gaps in these files through iterative proportional fitting for some of the British data. The final stage in preparation of the migration databases was to estimate the numbers of transitions (Australia) or movements (Britain) for age-period-cohort spaces. In principle, this last estimation involves a fairly simple interpolation or aggregation of age-time classified migration data, but in practice a great deal of detailed attention is required. A final section specifies the populations at risk to be used for each age-period-cohort observation plan to compute migration intensities

Family migration to Australia

This paper reviews the thinking behind Australia\u27s family migration program and the aspects considered when planning its size and composition each year. Executive summary: In contrast to the United States of America, the Australian Government has steadily prioritised skilled migration within Australia’s permanent Migration Program, with proportionally fewer family places available. The current Coalition Government affirms that the focus of the immigration program is primarily economic, not social, and has promised to further prioritise skilled migration over the years ahead. Whilst planning levels clearly depict skilled migration at around two thirds of the overall Migration Program, it is important to acknowledge that over fifty percent of the Skill Stream is in fact comprised of family (secondary visa holders). In this light, family migration still remains at the very heart of Australia’s Migration Program. Although parts of the Family Stream are seen to be a net cost to the Commonwealth budget, overall, family migration presents a net gain both economically and socially. Family structures are particularly important in attracting or keeping skilled migrants—an issue of particular significance in regional areas. A strong grasp of the English language is perceived as one of the best ways to ensure family migrants embrace Australian society and culture

Australia's uncertain demographic future

The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to present the first comprehensive set of probabilistic population forecasts for Australia. We stress the disadvantages of directly inputting net migration into the cohort component model in probabilistic forecasting, and propose a gross migration flows model which distinguishes between permanent and non-permanent immigration and emigration. Our forecasts suggest that there is a two thirds probability of Australia’s population being between 23.0 and 25.8 million by 2026 and between 24.4 and 31.8 million by 2051. Comparisons with the latest official population projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics are made.Australia, migration, migration forecasts, population forecasting, probabilistic, uncertainty

Australian Migration and Dwelling Prices

Residential dwelling prices have been increasing over the last few decades in Australia. Many empirical researches have demonstrated that population and demographics are the main factors of contributing to upward trend of dwelling prices. In Australia, migration plays an important role in the nation’s population growth and economic development. The Australian government currently receives overseas migrants from countries around the world every year on different schemes such as skilful migration, family reunion and so on. On average there are around 200,000 overseas migrants settling as permanent residents in Australia according to the migration data provided by the Australian Department of Immigration. This paper studies how new migrants contribute to demand shock and how much impact they have on the residential dwellings market. Yearly time series data will be collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Department of Immigration. Statistical models will be derived using the changes of dwelling prices as the dependent variables; and net migration, changes of household income and dwelling supplies as the independent variables. The research is considered important as it addresses the economic fundamental of demand and supply issues. The research findings also help to validate the Australian migration policies

Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand

This paper adopts a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to analyse the labour market adjustment mechanisms for 12 New Zealand regions over the period 1985 to 2001. It examines the effects of a region-specific shock to employment on itself, the unemployment rate, the participation rate, and the wage rate. The role of migration as a channel of regional labour market adjustment is also inferred. We find that adjustment occurs predominantly through inter-regional migration although the unemployment and participation rates also play a role. Wages, on the other hand, account for very little adjustment. The importance of inter-regional migration in New Zealand matches the results found in Sweden, but stands in contrast to the picture in many European countries. Migration appears to be a more dominant adjustment channel compared to the US and Australian cases. However, this has to be placed into context – New Zealand regions are much smaller in terms of population size.Regional labour market adjustment; Internal migration

Human Capital Accumulation: Education and Immigration

Education and immigration are examined and affirmed as drivers of sustainable productivity growth. In education, individuals see continuing benefits to educational investment, a view supported by individual rates of return from education. Private sector expenditure on education has increased substantially, Australia's public/private funding mix conforming to the OECD average. An expansion of migration is possible without unacceptable reduction in skill composition and may enhance Australian human resources development. The migration program should be set to underpin a 1.25 per cent population growth path and be focussed on 'smart' growth and not just growth in numbers.

Migrants and employment - Challenging the success story

The Australian government claims that its emphasis on skills in the migration program has paid off, with recent migrants achieving superior labour market outcomes to previous cohorts, and contributing more to the 'productive diversity' of the Australian workforce. Such sentiments are supported by most contemporary scholars of migration. Their conclusions stem from the adoption of a human capital approach where migrants' labour market outcomes are seen to directly reflect their individual skills and other attributes, as opposed to social and institutional practices such as discrimination or exclusion. In this article we subject the prevailing 'success story' about skilled migration to scrutiny, and point to alternative ways of interpreting the empirical evidence (namely, longitudinal survey data) as well as alternative ways of explaining the incorporation of migrants in the Australian workforce. © 2004 The Australian Sociological Association

Age, period and cohort effects on migration of the baby boomers in Australia

The differential migration behaviour of the baby boom generation is commonly explained by reference to cohort size effects. This paper focuses on inter-cohort differences in the intensity and pattern of internal migration in Australia, while paying particular attention to the Australian baby boomer generation as it has moved through the life-course. A series of generalised linear models are fitted to migration transition for age-period-cohort spaces to disentangle the effects of age, period and birth cohort on migration. The results demonstrate that the relative contribution of age to change in migration intensity is largest in relative terms, followed by cohort, while the effects of period were much more subtle. In comparison to earlier work on cohort effects in the United States that showed a negative effect of large cohort size on migration, cohort effects on migration are not restricted to the baby boom but show a continuous upwards trend across cohorts. We find that this divergence from the US-based evidence regarding cohort effects is largely due to the different timing and magnitude of the Australian baby boom compared to the US. The baby boom in Australia was delayed and much smaller in terms of absolute and relative cohort size than in the US. Results highlight the importance of factors other than cohort size, such as differences in attitudes to mobility and housing market dynamics, in shaping migration behaviour of the Australian baby boomers

Capturing Trojans and Irregular Satellites - the key required to unlock planetary migration

It is now accepted that the Solar system's youth was a dynamic and chaotic time. The giant planets migrated significant distances to reach their current locations, and evidence of that migration's influence on the Solar system abounds. That migration's pace, and the distance over which it occurred, is still heavily debated. Some models feature systems in which the giant planets were initially in an extremely compact configuration, in which Uranus and Neptune are chaotically scattered into the outer Solar system. Others feature architectures that were initially more relaxed, and smoother, more sedate migration. To determine which of these scenarios best represents the formation of our Solar system, we must turn to the structure of the system's small body populations, in which the scars of that migration are still clearly visible. We present the first results of a program investigating the effect of giant planet migration on the reservoirs of small bodies that existed at that time. As the planets migrate, they stir these reservoirs, scattering vast numbers of small bodies onto dynamically unstable orbits in the outer Solar system. The great majority of those bodies are rapidly removed from the system, through collisions and ejections, but a small number become captured as planetary Trojans or irregular satellites. Others are driven by the migration, leading to a significant sculpting of the asteroid belt and trans-Neptunian region. The capture and retention efficiencies to these stable reservoirs depend on the particular migration scenario used. Advocates of chaotic migration from an initially compact scenario argue that smoother, more sedate migration cannot explain the observed populations of Trojans and irregular satellites. Our results draw a strikingly different picture, revealing that such smooth migration is perfectly capable of reproducing the observed populations.Comment: 13 pages, accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed proceedings of the 12th annual Australian Space Science Conferenc

Migration to Australia: a quick guide to the statistics

This paper provides a summary of some of the key statistics on permanent and temporary migration to Australia. Overview Australia is considered to be one of the world’s major ‘immigration nations‘ (together with New Zealand, Canada and the United States of America (USA). Since 1945, when the first federal immigration portfolio was created, over 7.5 million people have settled here and Australia’s overseas-born resident population—estimated to be 27.7 per cent of the population in June 2013—is considered high compared to most other OECD countries. Permanent migrants enter Australia via one of two distinct programs—the Migration Program for skilled and family migrants or the Humanitarian Program for refugees and those in refugee-like situations. The Australian Government allocates places, or quotas, each year for people wanting to migrate permanently to Australia under these two programs. Until very recently, the United Kingdom (UK) had always been the primary source country for permanent migration to Australia. However, for the first time in the history of Australia, China surpassed the UK as Australia’s primary source of permanent migrants in 2010–11. Since then, China and India have continued to provide the highest number of permanent migrants. New Zealand (NZ) citizens also feature highly in the number of settler arrivals, but they are not counted under Australia’s Migration Program unless they apply for (and are granted) a permanent visa. Over the decades, migration program planning numbers have fluctuated according to the priorities and economic and political considerations of the government of the day. However, it is important to note that the Australian Government’s immigration policy focus has changed markedly since 1945, when attracting general migrants (primarily from the UK) was the priority, to focussing on attracting economic migrants and temporary (skilled) migrants. Currently the planning figure for the Migration Program is 190,000 places, with skilled migrants comprising the majority. One of the most significant developments in the dynamics of migration to Australia in recent years has been the growth in temporary migration. In 2000–01 temporary migrants outnumbered permanent arrivals for the first time. Many of these entrants arrived on either student visas or long-term temporary skilled business visas (subclass 457). Unlike the permanent Migration Program, the level of temporary migration to Australia is not determined or subject to quotas or caps by Government, but rather is demand driven. The 457 visa also provides a pathway for skilled workers and their dependants to apply for permanent residence and many students are also eligible to apply for permanent visas under the Migration Program at the completion of their courses. The largest contribution to net overseas migration (NOM) in recent years has been from people on temporary visas—mostly comprised of overseas students and temporary skilled migrants and the rate of Australia’s population growth has increased significantly over the few years largely driven by an increase in NOM