2,117 research outputs found
Pranab Kumar Sen: Life and works
In this article, we describe briefly the highlights and various
accomplishments in the personal as well as the academic life of Professor
Pranab Kumar Sen.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/193940307000000013 the IMS
Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Advances in forecast evaluation
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West's (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West's writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of forecasts at the population level (based on true, unknown model coefficients), the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients), and the evaluation of conditional versus unconditional forecasts. We present original results in a few subject areas: the optimization of power in determining the split of a sample into in-sample and out-of-sample portions; whether the accuracy of inference in evaluation of multi-step forecasts can be improved with judicious choice of HAC estimator (it can); and the extension of West's (1996) theory results for population-level, unconditional forecast evaluation to the case of conditional forecast evaluation.Forecasting
Advances in forecast evaluation
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of forecasts at the population level (based on true, unknown model coefficients), the evaluation of forecasts in the finite sample (based on estimated model coefficients), and the evaluation of conditional versus unconditional forecasts. We present original results in a few subject areas: the optimization of power in determining the split of a sample into in-sample and out-of-sample portions; whether the accuracy of inference in evaluation of multistep forecasts can be improved with the judicious choice of HAC estimator (it can); and the extension of West’s (1996) theory results for population-level, unconditional forecast evaluation to the case of conditional forecast evaluation.Forecasting ; Time-series analysis
Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation Under Known First-Stage Sign
We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in
instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign
of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single
instrument, there is a unique non-randomized unbiased estimator based on the
reduced-form and first-stage regression estimates. For cases with multiple
instruments we propose a class of unbiased estimators and show that an
estimator within this class is efficient when the instruments are strong. We
show numerically that unbiasedness does not come at a cost of increased
dispersion in models with a single instrument: in this case the unbiased
estimator is less dispersed than the 2SLS estimator. Our finite-sample results
apply to normal models with known variance for the reduced-form errors, and
imply analogous results under weak instrument asymptotics with an unknown error
distribution
Inference with Weak Instruments
This paper reviews recent developments in methods for dealing with weak instruments (IVs) in IV regression models. The focus is more on tests (and confidence intervals derived from tests) than estimators. The paper also presents new testing results under "many weak IV asymptotics," which are relevant when the number of IVs is large and the coefficients on the IVs are relatively small. Asymptotic power envelopes for invariant tests are established. Power comparisons of the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR), Anderson-Rubin, and Lagrange multiplier tests are made. Numerical results show that the CLR test is on the asymptotic power envelope. This holds no matter what the relative magnitude of the IV strength to the number of IVs.Conditional likelihood ratio test, instrumental variables, many instrumental variables, power envelope, weak instruments
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